The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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** updated numbers
28 people from SRK Consulting **
21 people from Centamin PLC **
23 Barminco **
3 Gold Pyramid Group
13 Barrick Gold Corporation **
5 The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority
3 Shalateen Mineral Resources Company
6 Vale
4 SUKARI GOLD MINES
7 Newmont Corporation **
plus 18 Executive Director's of unknown origin **
Note - the last 24 hours saw a large spike in views from Sudbury Ontario where Vale has a world class mining complex (employing over 4000)
I think Sotolo had 600,000 centamins shares , so if half were sold at £2 and invested in THS at £1 or less , a year a so ago, then they must have bought 600,000 shares in THS? As these have gone up to £1.40, Im sure some could be sold to start work on the house? That is without the successful trading getting in and out of Hoc and Cey.
Regarding Mando getting out at 99.4, it looks a good move now, but not as good as if they had got out when Cey went up the other week to £1.05?
Im hoping for good things from Matin Horgan and Cey in the not too distant future. Then if we have reinvested our dividends and the price rises, we will forget about the bad times.
If the share stays at £1 but we get a really good dividend Id be quite happy . Ultimately shares should be about dividends, otherwise it is just gambling or some sort of pyamid scheme. Look how well Ocado have done price wise over the years. Have they had a dividend yet? So if the price crashes, someone who has bought in recently will lose out big time.
Sotolo you have a good weekend also.
All that is happening now for LTH is just because of unbelievable short termism of the previous CEO and others within the BOD including the pervious Chairman /interim CEO Joseph.
In hindsight he sold a vast amount when the going looked good.
For Traders of course that is terrible ,but you have not lost unless you panic and sell.
The Dividends for a few years were being subsidised by lack of investment in clearance for the future.
Now that is being done ,but at least this BOD is not making LTH suffer too much by cutting the Divi out .
As for the profit this year that will be seen in not too much more time.
I know this platform is for Traders being LS East ,because that is how they make their money.
But Traders are not the majority of shareholders.
I hope one day you manage your house renovation ,it must be very frustrating seeing your dreams put back several years.
We all have bad times in life.
Good luck.
Hindsight... stocks are always gamble, especially gold and more so crypto.
As I'd said before this is why a small my % of portfolio is gold stocks and less is crypto.
I trade my CEY- sometimes get it right, sometimes wrong, but luckily more right than wrong on CEY. My view is here is all about futures- this SP is very low because of Oct2020 coupled with gold price being so high just before this, causing this fall. All PMs are down around the 30% mark YTD.
The year results won't be good, and this year always being compared to previous year at RNS time- but we never know how much is priced in already- we've performed broadly in line YTD with other PMs.
Now the BUT, and it's a big one in my view...
If 1st Dec shows a good report and significant progress to a regain towards the 500k at Sukari again, coupled with all the expansion plans, this will rise from this very low SP. All the comms so far have NOT indicated any further issues, and have shown ahead of schedule.
The odds and all the logic point to this.
This is why when I trade around CEY during some days, I don't want to be out for long (plus those "in the know" may pounce on CEY).
Yes, selling at 99 was deemed good- but not good if it jumps- plus although it makes one feel good that they missed out on a drop- it doesn't get you more money unless you either buy back in when below the 99 or invest elsewhere and this succeeds. I did very well out of the rise last year- some just went back alas, some didn't pick up on the big rise year- at the time many analysts were saying stocks will crash like they did in March 2020 if we get a second COVID wave, but this didn't happen (the overall market crash that is).
If, like you, I had held a stock for many years, I would find it very hard to not watch the stock post exiting, and if it does jump and go well above the 99 would not feel good, it's human nature for the majority.
No one knows, you take your choice- but for me, having traded this stock for years- the SP is very low.
I have zero emotional attachments with any companies I invest in.
Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
Hi Cowichan,
Thank you for flagging this up, as you will be aware this has been identified in the most recent presentations as one of several very promising potential contributors to total guidance!
All part of Martin Hogan's new strategy of adding the value of Sukari!
As posted a couple of weeks ago I didn’t think Mando had made a mistake selling at 99.4 as Cey , it is down a further 6%, so well called Mando. Ths I said I was had switched a few Cey to is up 40% on the month. Just wish I had the guts to sell far more, and followed Mando (tho not back in) I just sold a tiny few, despite the derision of some here on posting that gold and Cey might fall. Now I think the odds of rise or fall are more evenly poised I think at this lower price, tho the year results are a big danger when people see in black and white how badly they compare and we might get thwacked . However THS has far more to rise, when it’s results come out and seen in black and white, but can’t bear to take the loss on Cey and switch more, I already have more THS than Cey, all thanks to this board and another, Tiger on the Tail, saying get out of Cey at near 200 as it fall began, and buy THS I had never heard of, what generosity (I don’t believe posters move markets in these sized shares unless posting news that isn’t known.. Anyway as said before it would be great if people could be more respectful of those like Mambo or Tiger who post they are selling as the price will fall, and those who hold long term but post reasons for short term fall. Have a lovely weekend all, and hopefully 2023 should be a good year for Cey, or as Candid points out gold price rise may save us
Thank you DJ. The point I was making, was that the multiplier effect will move up and down during the day, based on accompanying factors included in the commentary ....of course there will be other ones too , a key one being unexplained shifts in market sentiment .
Cowichan by a quick speed read of the B2gold deal with West African Resources one (long suffering CEY LTH’s) can only salivate on how our fortunes would take an entirely different direction if Centamin were to report something similar.
https://www.b2gold.com/news/2021/b2gold-agrees-to-sell-burkina-faso-projects-to-west-african-resources
5 AM in Northern Ireland
Is coming...
Mining Geostatistical Resource Estimation Of Gold And Modeling Of Quartz Ridge Area, Sukari Project, Eastern Desert
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jacqui-coombes-19a3204_proud-to-be-attending-mohamed-bedair-mausimms-activity-6859501947796492289-Hpaa
Razor --> thanks for sharing the alert - it's nice to have some possibilities opening up for this unloved share - even if it's only speculative at best!
Something else to consider, now that B2Gold has sold its last remaining Burkina Faso concession to WAF some might see this as an unwillingness to invest in 'dangerous' jurisdictions but according to a recent presentation (yesterday actually) at The Canada-Africa Chamber of Business Conference B2Gold has reiterated the company's long term commitment to West Africa.
Some excerpts from B2Gold's keynote address:
"We provide jobs where there are limited opportunities for people and have mined safely throughout the world, helping communities and governments,’ explained Neil Reeder, Vice President of Government Relations.
Mr. Reeder outlined extensive community development, educational and environmental initiatives – including conservation and green mining – in Africa and worldwide.
"B2Gold is a leader globally and sets the standard for international best practice, while pioneering Canadian investment and partnership in Africa,"
Also, B2Gold talks about their excitement to get drilling on their new Egypt concessions.
The entire video presentation (which is a very good) is found here:
https://canadaafrica.ca/blogs/news/closing-keynote-address-neil-reeder-vp-government-relations-at-b2gold
Y es I think it is quite clear, that all other things remaining equal , there will be a direct link between movements in the gold price and movements in the share price .
Furthermore this link isn't a linear one ..it brings about a multiplier effect . Take today for an example , a 1% drop in the gold price brought about a 2.7% fall in the fall in share price ..it has to be said that this is exceptional and won't be due entirely to the gold price fall entirely the same principle remains...let me explain
Using hypothetical figures , let's assume that the following is the situation ..
1. The gold price is $1700, the AISC is $1200 bringing about a profit of $500 per share
2. Let's assume that there are 1000 shares in existence then the earnings per share (EPS) is 50 cents per share
Now let's see the impact of a 10% rise in the gold price
1. Gold price is now $1,870 but AISC will remain at $1200 so the profit now rises to $670 which will equate to an EPS of 67 cents... so an increase of 10 per cent in the gold price has resulted in a 34% increase in EPS, giving a multiplier effect of 3.4
Let's now assume the price of gold decreases by 10% to $1530...the profit now falls to $330 ($1530 -$1200) which will result in a corresponding fall in EPS to 33 cents per share...in other words a 10% fall in gold price has resulted in a 34% drop in EPS creating a multiplier effect of minus 3.4...
The multiplier effect today was minus 2.7
So why was there a difference ? A multitude of reasons .
1. Markets dont behave rationally
2. Retail and institutional investors will be entering and exiting the market for a whole host of different reasons
3. Impact that external factors have on the price , inflation , interest rate expectations etc .
4. Company news flows
5. Fund manager notes on a company with associated share price forecasts ( though god knows why )
6. Outflows to Bitcoin or elsewhere
7. Index priced funds altering individual holdings to retain their benchmark with movements in FTSE
8. Significant events...new discoveries, take over rumours , production downgrades (or upgrades)
9. Flight to or away from deemed " safe haven assets "
Etc etc
So yes gold price has a significant impact on the share price , but that assumes all other things remain equal , and the markets react rationally ..none are true
Hi Canrtoad,
Have a look through recent reports or listen to the most recent podcasts, this may give you a better idea of Martin Horgan's strategy.
I’m in tweeter and follow Centamin with alerts on and an hour ago I got a notification that Centamin have started following B2Gold.
Quite worrying really, I mean what if Cowhichen goes missing and is found on a piece of waste ground…
Blimey, he might even be inline for “hush money”
Nope, Gold price is the reason, it's that simple.
It is terrible that there has been an attack and 4 people are missing. But it is not the first attack on Iamgold's convoys to their mine in the far NW of B.F. right next to the Mali and Niger border area. A policeman was killed in the last attack in September.
In contrast Centamin's Batie West project (that up for sale)Centamin is in the far opposite SW part of B.F 290km SW of the capital and adjacent to the Cote D'Iv and Ghana borders.
On a read across for other miners with West African mines/projects. Report out that Canadian Co Iamgold convoy in Burkina Faso was attacked today by Islamic terrorists.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/canadian-mining-firm-iamgold-convoy-attacked-west-africa
Amazing stuff Cowichan - Absolutely amazing. -
Clearly, more to the interest than realized. IMO
** updated numbers
25 people from SRK Consulting **
18 people from Centamin PLC
19 Barminco **
3 Gold Pyramid Group
12 Barrick Gold Corporation **
5 The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority
3 Shalateen Mineral Resources Company
6 Vale **
4 SUKARI GOLD MINES
6 Newmont Corporation **
plus 17 Executive Director's of unknown origin
Also note: geotagged views spiked from the Greater Vancouver area just today (where B2Gold is headquartered)
Just checked gold prices- it rose 01oct 01sep and 01aug and dropped 01jun and 01jul- have t checked any further back
Lost track of how many times gold drops on the last day of trading in the month. The cause is usually associated with a big drop in buy side volume in China as they tidy up the monthly trading book. Having just checked Shanghai volume appears to be around 4-5% off on the previous day. There is usually an 85% chance that the first day of trading in the new month will see a rebound in the gold price. What I can not get over is the copper prices going down when we have a massive drop in copper supplies in warehouses.
More chance of me catching a salmon on the penultimate day of the season than this going over 100p today.
As per norm - US data at 13:30 caused movement in gold
Like I said, there is now little-, if any correlation between the expectation of inflation and the price of gold. Today we had the EU inflation hit a new peak since July 2008, but gold has dropped significantly -1.20%.
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi
I'm not sure what is going to cause it ro rise, but I expect that if in 6m, they subsequently find that EU inflation is dropping, that gold would drop further. I'm hoping that I'm wrong.
Wish that were the case!
Producer sovereignty has been an ongoing concern for many for a long time, long before the internet!. There is no real chance of anything being done about it, in my opinion. I think that if Bitcoin had never existed the POG would certainly been stirring if not soaring at he moment. I think given how much inflation is around that the USA $M2 velocity will at least start to return to normal perhaps even soar. This means that the USA Yf will be hit very very hard in Feb / March 2022. Yes there will be some growth and a lot of asset price inflation, however the price level will come under exceptional pressure. POG will soar. Bitcoin is an unknown variable. It might have collapsed by then it might collapse later. I can not think of any rational way to judge this. my guess is that gold will sharply respond when it does. When?, I just do not know. I expect to stay with CEY till March 2022. If the market anticipates this and spikes I might jump off earlier!. Level heads please gentlemen!!.