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I just sold at 99.40 with a minimal profit.
Probably a mistake. I often sell at the bottom and this is probably one of those times. Gut feel is often wrong. But I don't like the look of the gold trend at the moment.
No doubt this will age very poorly, probably within the next 5 minutes, but looking at the weekly charts on gold and silver and the relative general good sentiment in the markets and strong business performances being reported at the moment, I can see gold continuing to decline down to maybe 1725 or even 1685 in the next couple of weeks. Like I said, I'll probably be very embarrassed about this post very soon, and will probably re-buy back in at a loss later.
GLA
I Don’t think you have made a mistake Mando, and sadly think you will appear prescient; I hope of course you are proved wrong , tho unlikely. I wish I was as brave and wise but would mean taking a large loss. Gold has failed to hold 1800 again so tumbling and agree testing $1680 again is on the cards, plus remember we have some horrible figures coming out in the annual financials next quarter. The only thing that keeps me going is falling real interest rates, and that bitcoin which has taken advantage of them to become the new haven, collapses leaving us, but when….
cheers. so far so good. I moved the money to IAG which is doing ok so far of the back of the news on the US starting to accept flights in November.
GLA
Sold yesterday for a weeprofit after sat on 95p buys for weeks . Just feel there’s better opps out there.
Hope gold gets back above 1800 and lths make some cash.
Always rely on Sotolo to cheer everyone up... remember what was in the Capital RNS...
Hi Steve,
Nothing unusual for a Friday afternoon in Centamin!
I remain very optimistic about next weeks update and results!
Ever thought of working for Liberum?
Possibly you should sell out Sotolo, at least you would be able to stop depressing yourself worrying about things that might or might not be and that you or anyone else can ever predict with any accuracy!
Mr T, together I think we can predict the direction of Cey correctly way more than 50% of the time. Although I know that predicting this, and the reason for it, annoys some people here in my view the healthy debate helps one take a view far better than the analysts who move in herds. Overall Those continuing to predict falls after the wall, compounded by once gold turned, have been correct in the downward trajectory over the last year. As to selling unfortunately I suffer from anchoring so unlike those who sold this week I will hold as I don’t believe it makes money to try to time the market, and eventually Cey should improve, and so should the gold price, and I could be quite wrong and sooner than the another couple of year that I think. Have a lovely weekend, you seem a decent if opinionated (not necessarily bad) man, and of course decency and opinions make this board go round.
As posted a couple of weeks ago I didn’t think Mando had made a mistake selling at 99.4 as Cey , it is down a further 6%, so well called Mando. Ths I said I was had switched a few Cey to is up 40% on the month. Just wish I had the guts to sell far more, and followed Mando (tho not back in) I just sold a tiny few, despite the derision of some here on posting that gold and Cey might fall. Now I think the odds of rise or fall are more evenly poised I think at this lower price, tho the year results are a big danger when people see in black and white how badly they compare and we might get thwacked . However THS has far more to rise, when it’s results come out and seen in black and white, but can’t bear to take the loss on Cey and switch more, I already have more THS than Cey, all thanks to this board and another, Tiger on the Tail, saying get out of Cey at near 200 as it fall began, and buy THS I had never heard of, what generosity (I don’t believe posters move markets in these sized shares unless posting news that isn’t known.. Anyway as said before it would be great if people could be more respectful of those like Mambo or Tiger who post they are selling as the price will fall, and those who hold long term but post reasons for short term fall. Have a lovely weekend all, and hopefully 2023 should be a good year for Cey, or as Candid points out gold price rise may save us
Hindsight... stocks are always gamble, especially gold and more so crypto.
As I'd said before this is why a small my % of portfolio is gold stocks and less is crypto.
I trade my CEY- sometimes get it right, sometimes wrong, but luckily more right than wrong on CEY. My view is here is all about futures- this SP is very low because of Oct2020 coupled with gold price being so high just before this, causing this fall. All PMs are down around the 30% mark YTD.
The year results won't be good, and this year always being compared to previous year at RNS time- but we never know how much is priced in already- we've performed broadly in line YTD with other PMs.
Now the BUT, and it's a big one in my view...
If 1st Dec shows a good report and significant progress to a regain towards the 500k at Sukari again, coupled with all the expansion plans, this will rise from this very low SP. All the comms so far have NOT indicated any further issues, and have shown ahead of schedule.
The odds and all the logic point to this.
This is why when I trade around CEY during some days, I don't want to be out for long (plus those "in the know" may pounce on CEY).
Yes, selling at 99 was deemed good- but not good if it jumps- plus although it makes one feel good that they missed out on a drop- it doesn't get you more money unless you either buy back in when below the 99 or invest elsewhere and this succeeds. I did very well out of the rise last year- some just went back alas, some didn't pick up on the big rise year- at the time many analysts were saying stocks will crash like they did in March 2020 if we get a second COVID wave, but this didn't happen (the overall market crash that is).
If, like you, I had held a stock for many years, I would find it very hard to not watch the stock post exiting, and if it does jump and go well above the 99 would not feel good, it's human nature for the majority.
No one knows, you take your choice- but for me, having traded this stock for years- the SP is very low.
I have zero emotional attachments with any companies I invest in.
Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
Sotolo you have a good weekend also.
All that is happening now for LTH is just because of unbelievable short termism of the previous CEO and others within the BOD including the pervious Chairman /interim CEO Joseph.
In hindsight he sold a vast amount when the going looked good.
For Traders of course that is terrible ,but you have not lost unless you panic and sell.
The Dividends for a few years were being subsidised by lack of investment in clearance for the future.
Now that is being done ,but at least this BOD is not making LTH suffer too much by cutting the Divi out .
As for the profit this year that will be seen in not too much more time.
I know this platform is for Traders being LS East ,because that is how they make their money.
But Traders are not the majority of shareholders.
I hope one day you manage your house renovation ,it must be very frustrating seeing your dreams put back several years.
We all have bad times in life.
Good luck.
I think Sotolo had 600,000 centamins shares , so if half were sold at £2 and invested in THS at £1 or less , a year a so ago, then they must have bought 600,000 shares in THS? As these have gone up to £1.40, Im sure some could be sold to start work on the house? That is without the successful trading getting in and out of Hoc and Cey.
Regarding Mando getting out at 99.4, it looks a good move now, but not as good as if they had got out when Cey went up the other week to £1.05?
Im hoping for good things from Matin Horgan and Cey in the not too distant future. Then if we have reinvested our dividends and the price rises, we will forget about the bad times.
If the share stays at £1 but we get a really good dividend Id be quite happy . Ultimately shares should be about dividends, otherwise it is just gambling or some sort of pyamid scheme. Look how well Ocado have done price wise over the years. Have they had a dividend yet? So if the price crashes, someone who has bought in recently will lose out big time.
Hi Paul,
The present share price is ridiculous, despite some may claim from their consultation of various charts and moving averages,etc ,etc, although what it does clearly demonstrates is just how vital market trust and confidence in a company is.
As long termer's will be aware Andrew Pardey, Youssef and Josef between were was less than truthful about the state of Sukari on more than one occasion, so after this last but in many ways inevitable set back it is hardly surprising the punishment to the share price has been especially severe.
That and considering the great progress being made to rectify past errors and restore reliable and sustainable production the share price is unjustifiable if common sense is applied.
I think we all suffer a little from impatience at wanting the share price to increase dramatically, on the back of no news . We tend to monitor the share price on a real time basis throughout the day and then be flustered when the price often falls instead
What I have found, and with this share in particular, is that it languishes along , for several months at a time, on a low valuation , and often , as at present falls even further..this in my view, is an ongoing over reaction to previous bad news and a serious loss of confidence in the company
Then a sudden piece of good news is released , or a batch of good news items and the price rockets up in just a couple of months maybe by 50% and more.
I think the wise thing to do, is to just sit and wait patiently for the re-rating to take place ..and when it does happen , ( and it will ) the move will be dramatic and sudden , however it might, as at present take a scenic route to get there .
For me it's a HOLD...the fundamentals are too compelling
Best Regards and as always DYOR
Price has been depressed for a while now. We need it to move. Don't really care which direction as I wouldn't mind accumulating
What's the expected dividend yield in cey over the next 12 months, anyone?
Since 2016 the dividend has averaged 11 cents. This would equate to a yield of nearly 9%. However of course the market has lowered the share price as profits will be considerably lower and I expect the share to yield around 5% which would make a reduced dividend of around 8cents total, but of course this is with gold prices where they are now, lower or higher would change the expected profit or dividend. All done on the back of a fag packet with my rudimentary maths but basically lower but still a great yield as halved share price and halved yield give same divi.
As usual Candid quite agree, why I hold
ndeed the sideways tracking, and then good news, and then away we go. A Classic demonstrating this has been Apollo Consolidated in Western Australia, has crabbed along for years bwetween $0.15 and $0.30 for years, before that it nearly went under.., and then...the takeover offer 1...up 100%, then takeover 2, then counter offer...and still going on
https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-aop/apollo-consolidated-shares
Good inground assets, very conservative management and board, and thent hte neighbours got restless!
I have just bailed at $0.64, which is a good profit margin given I purchased between $0.05 and $0.2,.. maybe there is another 5-10%, maybe not ...
best
the gnome
Gut feel?
Great in-ground assets in Egypt and West Africa. Former Board and Mngt more liabilities
NOW
in-ground assets the same, Board conservative, Management far superior.
Result solid packaging, new management in place, aticulation, real leadership in place, but conservative and believable CEO
Likely result: Neighbours will get restlesss
Offers will emerge if there is not a re-rating by the market
Time period: <12 months
best
the gnome
Sotolo....I am looking forward to the next 6 to 12 months with this share if gold remains above $1750 per oz. Good to see you use "back of fag packet" for your calculations as I also hold BATS for div yield. !
It always amazes me how people focus on dividend yield, especially long term holders. I focus on the amount paid per share not the yield as sometime buy in just before ex-divi date, but only when I feel the stock is undervalued. Dividends can stop at anytime on any share and the lower the price the higher the yield % for an agreed cents per share divi. When an SP drops a lot(there are exceptions like the march2020 covid panic drop) there is obviously a greater chance of the divis being canx in the future leading to an even lower SP. People who hold purely for the divi are in just as much of a gamble situation, as if the divi is pulled and the SP is low, they’re stuck with a low SP.
The average gold price bagged last month was probably 1770 ish. Centamin still holding that average as we start November. You would think this company is making a loss instead of bagging $500 an ounce mined and produced ($225 net profit). Around $7.5M profit for October alone. So they make 5.6p net profit at forward annualised rate. 19p a share is the cash they have in the bank. Removing the cash element to give 74p that equates to a forward PE on actual profit of 13.2p. Pre tax that is a 6.6 PE rate. Historically, CEY trades on 15PE post tax as a minima and 20 PE as a maxima. This gives a trading range of 103-117p on the forward earnings. It is a seriously undervalued stock against its own past trading ranges against its projected earnings.
@Cherryburn: "I am looking forward to the next 6 to 12 months with this share if gold remains above $1750 per oz. "
Personally, I don't see many gold miners rising significantly until gold breaks above $1900. Sure, there might be some ups/downs, but they'll mostly trade in a range. Maybe they'll gradually start to drift higher if/when we break $1850.
That's just my opinion. It might be 100% wrong like all other opinions...
It would be unwise and improper, or possibly even illegal for various reason's to post some as yet unconfirmed facts, or information on this types of forum in the public domain, not least of which is not wanting to prematurely build up holders or potential buyers expectations on certain issues only for them to be dashed due to some unforeseen circumstances.
However what I will say is that to the best of my understanding at present there is certainly no intention by the management to change the dividend policy as the institutional and other fund holders are very much in favour of it, one of the reason's they opposed the Endeavor bid!
Also if fund managers and institutional holders weren't confident of the as yet unlocked true potential of Centanin, it's Sukari mine and other operations, or indeed and more importantly believed in Martin Horgan's professional abilities to release them, then why would they remain share holders ?
Obviously as I have said before anyone can be whomever they want to be on this type of forum,so I can appreciate why anyone may choose to doubt, disagree,disregard or just disbelieve my opinions but that said I remain very optimistic for the future of Centamin!