The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Investors face a new challenge with an inverted yield curve sending a recession signal that is getting hard to ignore to pile on the inflation and war headlines. Against that backdrop, next week's release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve minutes will be watch very closely for the line of thinking on rate hikes and plans to shrink the balance sheet. Economic reports of note due in include updates on factory orders, PMI prints, trade balance and jobless claims. Earnings nearly grind to a halt with another few weeks to go until Q1 reports roll in, but the conference calendar is active with a space symposium, cannabis gathering and large Bitcoin event all in the spotlight.
The price of crude oil has dipped below $100/barrel following the White House decision to release 180 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - an unprecedented amount.
Central Banking
Federal Reserve breakdown: The week ahead features several speeches by voting members of the FOMC, as well as the release of the minutes from the last report. Economists will be watching for nuances around the discussion on the size of future hikes to the target of the federal funds rate, especially from St. Louis President James Bullard and other members of the hawkish side. UBS thinks the minutes will fail to reveal any consensus on the size of the May rate hike, but could tip off more openness for a 50-point move than anticipated. The discussion around the pace and structure of the balance sheet runoff will also be closely watched.
The Flareintel goal is to reduce and ultimately eliminate routine gas flaring. In 2021 flaring was responsible for 1.2 billion tonnes of CO2e, the equivalent CO2 emissions from over 260 million cars, equivalent to all cars in the EU.
Greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030 – this means mitigating 35 billion tonnes of CO2e by the end of the decade?. Ending routine flaring is technologically achievable in that period, but first there must be a credible, transparent and granular?global assessment of flaring – yes, flare by flare.
FlareIntel, launched in April 2021, is a digital tool that allows anyone to explore gas flares around the world. It tracks every gas flare globally via satellite by incorporating data provided by the Earth Observation Group at the Colorado School of Mines and other sources.
For the first time, FlareIntel makes it possible to see the scale, impact, and operator of all flares anywhere in the world.
FlareIntel was developed by Capterio, which provides gas flaring solutions for energy companies to capture flared gas, create value, reduce pollution, and improve reputation.
FlareIntel Free tracks every gas flare globally via satellite and incorporates Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Nightfire (VNF) nightly data produced by the Earth Observation Group – part of the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines – and other data.
https://flareintel.com/flareintel-free
To: Boris Johnson
We, the undersigned, are concerned at this time of tension with Russia about the influence of Vladimir Putin’s regime in UK politics
We note that that the Conservative Party received significant amounts of money from Russian donors and their associates, including from people with apparent links to Putin’s government..
We note that oligarchs and officials from former Soviet republics with high levels of corruption have purchased more than £2bn worth of property in the UK.
We note that more than 200 Russian millionaires have bought their way into the UK in the last seven years, despite the government’s pledge in 2015 to stop corrupt oligarchs exploiting the system.
We note that parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee’s “Russia Report” found that “Russian influence in the UK is ‘the new normal’”.
We note that the same report recommended that there should be an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum, something which has not happened yet.
The above points raise serious questions about the extent to which Putin’s administration - or people linked to it - might be able to interfere in British public life.
At a time when Putin’s administration threatens global peace, we cannot simply hope for the best. We call on you to immediately order an inquiry into whether or not money linked to Vladimir Putin’s regime is influencing UK politics.
https://do.opendemocracy.net/putinmoney
Gas/Oil/Energy true values certainly as finite natural resources have been taken for granted and squandered for political power and personal gain the world over by politicians indeed very much related to Centamin and the price of price of precious metals.
North Sea Oil.
Thatcher'sconviction' would have been nothing but folly without the North Sea's black gold. It was oil revenues that bankrolled the unemployment, the destruction of manufacturing, the high-exchange rate, the termination of British coal mining, and the big-bang that turned London into a capital of global neo-liberalism and pumped growth into the South-East in the early 1980s.
As North Sea Oil came on stream bringing in an estimated £70 billion in revenues, it turned the UK into an OPEC country, an oil-exporter, and it overturned a chronic balance of payments problem rooted in the post-war period of clinging to imperial over-stretch.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/thatcher-and-words-no-one-mentions-north-sea-oil/
MrTibbles, Sir, Some first class informative and entertaining posts. They really are very good.
A few posts have been about gas, and as it's the W/E, perhaps I may be forgiven for posting a non-gold topic. I heard recently, which I was totally unaware of, that Israel has a deep sea gas field Tamar with proven reserves of 200 billion m3 of gas. That is remarkable enough. But I heard that forward planning includes pipelines to Greece and Italy to tap into European consumers and replace Russian gas supply in Europe. There is bound to be some very serious competition in that case as both gas supplier nations vie for economic dominance.
Hi Cowichan, nice update, can only agree with your conclusion!
Hi Bobliz,
Personally I very much agree with your opinion of Martin Horgan.
CAIRO - 30 March 2022: Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resource Tarek el Molla on Tuesday discussed in a meeting with Peter Steenkamp, Chairman of South Africa's largest mining company, Harmony Gold, the investment opportunities available in mining and gold exploration, in light of the company's strong desire to invest in Egypt.
Harmony Gold Company is seeking to expand its business portfolio outside South Africa and Australia and is willing to invest in gold exploration in Egypt, Steenkamp said.
Harmony chairman praised the major transformation in Egypt's mining field, in light of the attractive investment climate provided through the recent amendments to the mineral wealth act.
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/114361/South-Africa-s-largest-mining-company-eyes-investing-in-Egypt
--------------------------->>>>
My Thoughts:
South Africa has been such a pain-in-butt country to try and run a business this last decade with legacy mines, labor unrest, power outages, water shortages and general disarray - Egypt would seem a walk-in-the-park...
Hi Tibbs
As usual very succinct and well informed information on CEY.
My personal view is that Horgan is playing a blinder. As I have said here before he has accumulated more than sufficient personal wealth as not to be motivated by monetary gain. His previous resistance to severe pressure to float his start up company was both courageous and insightful. I (as I said personal view only) is that status in the business and more especially the mining industry is his prime motivation. As such keeping your powder dry , share price on the floor and then at the right time release the brakes in an ascendant and acclaimed way is where I see the present situation.
More power to the day traders assisting the long term plan but those who post on here are spread betters or trading the wrong side of the book and will join the 60+% who have no concept of the mantra CAPITAL PROTECTION AT ALL TIMES and eventually succumb to the professionals picking their pockets.
Good wishes to all here
Bob
Many a true word spoken in jest Mr Bond!
I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that some are already putting rumours about to discredit him for expressing such conspiracy theories and being anti American by exposing too much to potential aggressors!
Spot on Mr Bond, don't come any better than Cornish bred miners!
Cheers Mr T
As for the Barrick recruits , I noticed at least one had attended the Cambourne School of Mining, still one of the best wordwide.
Mr Tibbles .
I didnt find David Tice very communcative.
Propably because of the political climate in the US , he is probably worried about Sanctions on himself , haha .
But cant say I blame him.
Hi Halfpenny,
I have a pub friend who works in a mining related industry in Egypt and they get to hear some of whats going on at the sharp end at Sukari as it were.
I don't want to drop anyone in it and obviously this is only what I have heard word of mouth and in good faith, it seems that the previous at the pit face/open pit crews were to say the least certainly not as well managed or incentivized as they should have been and most certainly failed to exploit the riches/reserves in certain areas of Sukari as well as they should have done, and completely missed some!
Since the new management took over the true future and indeed what was overlooked in the past is becoming ever more apparent and hopefully bodes well for the future.
"One that has been swept under the carpet was Cleopatra and the money spent there and why Ross jerrard is still there.?" highlighted in the past by Cowichan
It seems that certain top level employees agree with some of the issues Cowichan has raised in the past (such as the suppressed HiSeis 2D survey, etc) there must be good reasons to question what has been going on at Sukari in the past .?
"Sukari is supposed to be a teir 1 asset and agree it's not the best team to run the asset, there senior management tab on there web site is testament to that
Off site overheads are high as compared against there peers although there official office is in Jersey there is a satellite office in London.
Martin Horgan can sell ice to Eskimo's, he talks the talk, but does he walk the walk, that said with in excess of 10 expatriate staff from Barrick he seems determined to bringing in the much needed expertise and enthusiasm to deliver on his stated objectives!
Oops just realized that's for 2012, but the output is rising.....doh!
100250, 103500, 107000 you get my drift?
EP.67: LFTV - Gold traded for Russian Oil? Paper market left behind. Feat. David Tice
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by gold and silver mining stock expert, David Tice, well-known for founding and directing the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX).
The two precious metals advocates weigh in on reports of Russia trading oil for physical gold, an economic shift with the potential to turn the paper market on its head.
Timestamps
00:00 Start
02:30 David Tice - Who is he and what is his background?
04:30 The Treasury yield curve inversion. What's going on?
05:25 Gold and silver mining - Why is Dave such a big believer?
07:30 Starving commodities. Russia is using gold to escape sanctions.
10:50 A word about paper, physical and stagflation.
12:15 Discounted Russian oil being traded for physical gold
14:50 The dissolution of the petrodollar
16:00 David loves silver in his portfolio!
17:00 Physical silver squeeze - is it possible to happen?
21:12 WallStreetSilver and the SLV Short Squeeze in February 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bj9LfsuZEWk
Watch David Tice’s new documentary - GRID DOWN, POWER UP: https://youtu.be/KwBY90a997o
Or, visit https://griddownpowerup.com/
I shouldn't need to point this out, but for the sake of some please note-
"The opinions expressed in this video of Andrew Maguire and any guest,"
My thoughts are it'll be higher production than Q4 as they seem to have hit the ground running since their woes and subsequent quarters will also show improvement.
Let's hope so halfpenny!
If Q1 is equal or better than Q4 last year why wouldn't it be then up we will be.
Hi VonMoltke,
My wife's mother had a grandfather who held a commission in the Prussian cavalry and we also had an artist friend Elke who was of Prussian descent.
Anyway I wouldn't worry about nationalisation because the Egyptian government EMRA is already in a legally binding partnership(enshrined in law) with Centamin regarding the Sukari operation.
Also the Egyptian government is keen to reassure international investors that Egypt is a safe and stable country to set up business in, which is on e of the main reasons why the new mining laws were adopted.
Hi Tornado,
Fair comments indeed,
I recall a very down to earth factory superintendent my immediate boss at the time and at our weekly production meetings he would sometimes refer to his loft of racing pigeons saying how much he cared for them and how he always fed them the best corn, but then on occasions Lou would sometimes refer to some of the shop floor operators as not being worth their corn and that if they didn't improve then although we didn't want to do it we would need to wring some necks!
I am of the opinion that this is the case with our BOD & NED's!