The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U.S recession over the next two years, with the labor market a particular problem for the Federal Reserve. The large gap between jobs and workers, which keeps wage growth elevated, has historically only declined during periods of economic contraction, chief economist Jan Hatzius and team wrote in a note out on Sunday. Predictions for a recession have been growing as the Fed tries to negotiate a soft landing for the economy at a time when inflation is at a level not seen in four decades.
Deutsche Bank was the first big Wall Street bank to forecast a recession, saying in the first week of April a recession in late 2023 is now their base case.
Quotes: “Taken at face value, these historical patterns suggest the Fed faces a hard path to a soft landing,” Hatzius said, according to Bloomberg. But other strategists are more cautious.
Wells Fargo stock strategist Chris Harvey said in a note last week that despite "daily calls for a recession from anyone with a megaphone, we do not expect one of the next 12 months. Rather, stagflation (high inflation/slower growth) likely will prevail."
Credit Suisse says it is not underweight equities (SPY) (QQQ) because: "i) equities are fair value (not overvalued) with equities being an inflation hedge compared to bonds; ii) monetary conditions are very loose; iii) we only tend to get recessions 9 months after 3-month money inverts relative to 10-year."
Go deeper on yields: The Fed's hawkish signaling, with 50-basis-point rate hikes expected over the next few meetings has sent Treasury yields sharply higher. An inversion in the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curve was pointed to as a signal of an upcoming recession. But the inversion was short-lived and that curve has started steepening again.
Yields are up again and the 2s/10s are steepening again this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield (TBT) (TLT) is up 6 basis points to 2.87% and the 2-year (SHY) is up 5 basis points to 2.49%. Real rates, which the Fed also wants to see rise, are climbing as well, with the 10-year inflation-protected yield about 10 basis points away from positive territory.
"Despite the embarrassing panic about the wrong yield curve measures flattening/inverting earlier this year, the curves that actually forecast recessions remain steep and have been steepening," MKM's Michael Darda said in a note.
"The long Treasury rate (or 10-year Treasury yield) minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield has inverted before every recession since the mid-1950s." That spread is now around 200 basis points. Still, traders see little respite from the bond selloff in the near term. “We’re coming out of one of the worst quarters in history .. and the big bear market in bonds continues,” Thanos Bardas, global co-head of investment grade at Neuberger Berman, told The Wall Street Journal
Thank you Sotolo for your thoughtful and balanced post on these issues.
On the contrary, this is the UK's Prime Ministers breaking the very law his party enacted into law, called an act of the legislature, or a statute.
Prime Minister Johnson and his cabinet broke the law by partying whilst the people were abiding by the law,and in many cases were unable to visit old , infirm dying relatives to say their goodbyes, this has caused some people to suffer all sorts of mental illnesses including PTS and anxiety which they will suffer from for years to come.
The war in Ukraine is terrible and we want to do all we can to help those e suffering from such unjustifiable aggression and acts of war inflicted upon them by Russian dictator Putin and his cronies.
But that said, the situation is being used by Boris Johnson s government to divert the public's attention from their own law breaking and the disastrous effects on the UK economy by Brext and the years of back door privatizations of the NHS and our other public services!
Yes,we certainly do care about getting the priorities in life right, which the majority of members on here do because they are decent people who aren't selfish.
Centamin will come right, its the other things that may not be as easy to cope with and will have far longer and far reaching effects on everyone's future.
Obviously some people care, actually quite a lot so let’s keep a civilised discussion here, there are always two sides and I think Tibbs is fussing about lying and hypocacy by rule makers, which attitude ultimately affects gold price and hence Centamin, so is relevant to discuss here - I believe that results of the politicians’ and bankers’ ineptitude is leading to higher gold prices. i am also more sanguine than most here about the Weds results, having been the opposite last year, the costs will be horrid but it is the forward guidance I will be looking at, so despite gold may take a few goes to get through $2000 I think, nay hope, that we should be in 3 figures after the results on Weds. Meantime let us respect and listen to each other’s views, even if different, on this rarely lovely board.
Are you on something tibbles, no one cares there are real problems happening very close to our doorstep & you are fussing over a triviality like a booze up, ffs get a life.
Storm in a tea cup. First world issue. The UK has much bigger problems.
From LSE political news
(Alliance News) - The opposition Labour party has called UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's involvement in the partygate saga "indefensible" as fresh allegations emerged about Johnson's conduct.
The Sunday Times said Johnson is expected to deliver a statement when members of Parliament return to the Commons on Tuesday, where he will not deny wrongdoing but will point towards the wider context, including the war in Ukraine.
But the newspaper also revealed fresh claims that Johnson was not only present at a leaving do for his former press chief but that he led the celebrations.
It comes after Johnson, his wife Carrie, and Chancellor Rishi Sunak were all issued with – and paid – fines for attending a birthday bash held for the prime minister in June 2020.
The Sunday Times reported the prime minister's official photographer had captured photographs of Johnson holding a beer at the gathering, and Sunak with a soft drink.
But Johnson is understood to have been present at at least six of the 12 events being investigated by the Metropolitan Police for breaking Covid rules, and is braced for more fines potentially to come.
One of those included in Operation Hillman is a leaving do for the former director of communications at No 10, Lee Cain, on November 13 2020.
A source suggested to the Sunday Times this had started as the press office having drinks to finish off the week, but turned into a party once the prime minister arrived, poured drinks and made a speech.
The newspaper said a No 10 source did not deny the characterisation of the gathering, but denied Johnson was the instigator.
The Sunday Mirror said No 10 had refused to answer questions about the birthday gathering submitted through a freedom of information request, because of national security reasons.
Downing Street declined to comment when approached by the PA news agency and has repeatedly said it would not comment until the police investigation concludes.
Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner said: "While the British public was making huge sacrifices, Boris Johnson was breaking the law.
"If the latest reports are true, it would mean that not only did the prime minister attend parties, but he had a hand in instigating at least one of them. He has deliberately misled the British people at every turn.
"The prime minister has demeaned his office. The British people deserve better. While Labour has a plan for tackling the cost-of-living crisis, Tory MPs are too busy defending the indefensible actions of Boris Johnson."
By Geraldine Scott, PA Political Correspondent
source: PA
Copyright 2022 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.
mark99999,
I am assuming you are eligible to vote and I could probably hazard a good guess whom you are likely to choose!
I don't seem to recall when you were appointed as moderator to this forum, possibly you could enlighten us all when it was ?
As I have explained before if you are unhappy about the content of a posting on here then you have the option to complain to the Moderator via the report tag.
It's also worth noting that this forum has always been one of open debate on a wide variety of subjects which believe it or not are all related in one way or another, and certainly as you may be aware are related to the price of gold which is governed to a great extent by political fiscal policies and central banks
I am assuming that you were fortunate enough to have taken advantage of a formal education, however that said from your what appear to be intended verbal insults or abuse towards me I can only assume that you aren't, or don't appear to be familiar, or if you are don't appear to practice the basic protocols of etiquette ?
It's certainly not my intention to appear to offend in any way, so may I respectfully suggest that you practice some of the usual forum decorum in your future posts, indeed it would be much more pleasant and less likely to cause any offence to any other members.
In the meantime thank you for your forum participation,all be it rather a short one in the present debate.
Happy Easter!
electric vehicles, as their supporters claim, were truly likely to reduce air pollution and tackle climate change. But are they?
https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2018/05/15/are-electric-cars-worse-for-the-environment-000660/
We show how carbon and nature offsetting does not work. And we argue that it cannot be made to work at scale, undermining the claims that offsets are a valid part of net-zero strategies.
https://policy.friendsoftheearth.uk/insight/dangerous-distraction-offsetting-con
https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate/stories?page=12
crux...on the gold comp sector
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2xzTLzaxB4
...results Wednesday. Anybody seen forecasts?
BC great to hear from you and thanks for your current knowledge I am sure technology has moved on so much it is a good thing that the dinosaur called Dasut retired. I trust life is treating you well down under and best to you and your family. Stay safe.
Hi Cholly,
Very interesting thank you for sharing your knowledge and gained professional experience on this very relevant and topical subject !
Hi Mr Gnome,
Strange is'nt it how so many of the "Toss Pots" flit from one set of "Pound Seats" to the next, the same goes on in politics in my experience politicians advance up the greasy pole by towing the party line and ingratiating themselves with the electorate bu saying whatever is the populist opinion at that time until they get promoted to such high office they are completely out of their depth and things go horrendously wrong (As in the UK at present where the lies and deceit of the case for Brexit, the two decades of cuts to the NHS, the breaking of their own Covid laws are ever more apparent!)
But we are told its just not practical to kick the ar(ses of these current cabinet sycophantic wastrels down the road when we are at war (the UK isn't at war,) so for the sake of the country they must be supported and allowed to stay in office, Oh and lie their way out by blaming the other lot, or asylum seekers, or food bank scroungers, or Europe, yes that's it!
But what does the political party do with these ministerial, self serving parasitic self serving ,lying Toerag's, they can't be sacked, that would show the party up for what it is , so best to divert the public's attention to the war (what war?), just like Thatcher did with the Falklands and then make the stinkers out to be strong and acting the in best interests of the people, then they be awarded a life peerage and they can step down with a ministerial pay off and non contributory pension to take a seat or two on some company boards who always want lobbyists and already donate to the party funds !
Similar situation with some companies , what does the BOD do with over promoted self serving parasitic, lying Toerag's, they can't be sacked, that would cast suspicions on the actions of the BOD or if it was fit for office, or may encourage close scrutiny of past practice or company accounts, so the usual preferred option is to shed some crocodile tears and wave the inept wastrels a goodbye with a golden handshake and glowing references so they can take up a "Pound seat" on another company board and assist with screwing the share holders again until the next time that the cracks in company policy can no longer be glossed over !
Dasut…. Yes still loitering in the shadows ??, Emissions in mining Mmmm lots of headlines and noise, basically most majors manufacturers have come out with various partnership announcements with most major miners of one form or another, the way I see it in the market currently the majors are hedging their bets - exploring full battery, expanding diesel power - electric drive, expanding hybrid configurations and investing in Hydrogen, but the simple reality is the bigger the equipment the greater the complexity of scale, CAT, Atlas Copco and Sandvik all have full battery smaller UG boggers today deployed, trialling etc, full battery large mining equipment will need dramatic technological advances for shift duration, performance, recharging tech, maybe quick change battery modules etc all of which to replace 1000’s of diesel horse power in large mining equipment - no easy task, that said manufacturers and miners alike are actively pursuing these options to explore the alternatives or be seen to be exploring such tech as part of their ESG expectations and or disruptive investor perception pressure - judge for yourselves. Now wrt Automation this is expanding at a pace, in the early stages specific applications lend themselves to autonomy e.g Large Iron Ore mines in WA where mine plans are quite consistent and it huge volumes of material being moved, hence most early fleets have been deployed in much applications, more recently - last 12 months or so mining truck automation has started to gain momentum in coal fields of Qld, with one of the first fleets being converted and many new machines being specced “autonomous” ready, furthermore applications like strip dozing have seen degrees of automation such as 1 control room and operator operating multiple driverless Dozers, or in more risky applications or tasks line of sight remote control - but this has been around for some time. Often the two topics are linked up Electrification (full / partial) and Autonomy but with no direct interdependency. The bottom line is large scale mining needs to be productive, efficient, effective and demonstrate a commercial return to owners / shareholders, with greater and greater emphasis on ESG - large mining trucks could in theory run on 50 000 AA batteries… but they don’t for all the obvious reasons. Enough of my ramblings hope this gives a few perspectives to current activity related to battery, power alternatives, electrification and Autonomy, take care - look after yourself Dasut.
ANDREW PARDEY
Non-Executive Director
https://marvelgold.com.au/corporate/board-and-management/
For indoors and confined spaces LPG is normally used ,no toxic gasses, water vapour and co2.
On e of my sisters bough an Electric Range Rover .
The electricity bill made it no longr¡er viable and the range pathetic. And many more maintainance issues.
In fact they told the company to take it back, after a few weeks of problems ,Range Rover refused .
Until they come up with far better batteries , with prices for electricity as they are they are not viable for many reasons .
Pit ponies would be greener . ha ha.
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for your explanation, I had feeling that you would be able to enlighten us on the feasibility of this monster battery powered shovel, doesn't surprise me considering the way the public are being hood winked over how environmentally friendly electric cars are, when in fact the production of the batteries and their disposal at end of life is hugely damaging to the environment.
I really appreciate all you have taught me about the realities of the at the face side of mining!
I always enjoy your lessons on actual at the pit face mining and I am sure I am not alone!
Cheers!
Tibbs
Tibbs appreciate the developments in electrics have moved on but can't get my head around a 300 tonne shovel when a 26 tonne needs a battery pack weighing 3.4 tonnes. This means the 300 tonne unit battery pack will be approaching 40 tonnes. Charging time would be days.
What I think Sany have is the age old hybrid diesel electric but unfortunately difficult to find a spec sheet of the machine so can't confirm either way.
Mines dictate machines providing maximum production and nothing unusual for a mine to run 3 x 8 hour shift and efficiencies along the same lines as pit stops at a grand prix, albeit longer change overs because they would normally do fuel and service top ups and operator walk round, similar to a pilot does his checks before take off. There are extremes as have seen a mine where they have drive too gantry systems and the operator walks off and new guy walks on and doesn't have to climb the steps.
Many other extras such quick fill diesel tanks and lube clusters.
So waiting over night for a machine to be charged won't work so as have said we need considerably more information to understand how productive and therefore cost effective the equipment really is. Also how many additional machines would be required to meet production plans.
the author of the Mining Stock Journal, Dave Kranzler, joins Andrew Maguire once again to contemplate the changing dynamic of how paper and physical gold markets interact.
As the Russian currency keeps strengthening, the two precious metals experts delve into the monumental ramifications of pegging the Ruble to gold, and the possible emergence of a new monetary system.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-riVXhvfFaI&t=11s
As always please note
The opinions expressed in this video of Andrew Maguire and any guest,
Hi Dasut,
Good points about how to power the lifting gear etc,
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/990290
https://electrek.co/2019/01/29/caterpillar-electric-excavator-giant-battery-pack/
https://www.angloamerican.com/futuresmart/stories/our-world/environment/mining-with-renewable-energy
On January 27 2022, Sany Heavy Industry’s first 300 t electric-drive front (face) shovel, SY2600E, officially rolled off the production line in Kunshan Industrial Park in Suzhou, it says “once again achieving a technological breakthrough in the field of super-large excavation.
https://im-mining.com/2022/02/09/sany-heavy-industry-unveils-new-sy2600e-300-t-class-electric-drive-hydraulic-face-shovel-suzhou-factory-china/
Good news Cowichan, thank you!
Should I buy an electric car?
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=135&t=1982601
Thanks Cowichan
I think it is healthy for CEY and Egypt, for there to be competition for prospective ground. I think the new Mngt and CEO appreciate organic growth and more strategic (and near term) development of options in this area. Hard to know what the previous Mngt and Ceo was thinking, but they do not appear to me to have had their organic options covered. But it is not too late. CEY should look at how to work with Altus, as if they don't, I am sure other majors will. I would NOT be waiting if I was CEY!
best
the gnome