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Thanks Red. Look forward to seeing you back in when the time is right.
And don't eat all those Teacakes at once!
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Prof,
Obviously, my last post was not my last post! (how many times can someone actually retire?)
I'm glad you got back in. Your selling up below £1 just shows how markets drain the will out of long-term investors. It is a fact, which recent Centamin price action has shown, that most money is made by those who invest just as the price breaks out of that choppy/nothing period. They then catch a massive rise in next-to-no-time. At least I did take the dividends, re-invest them at cheap prices (and added a few more besides), and caught the rally. It took a long time though, but I've made enough to keep me in Tunnock's Teacakes for a bit longer.
I'll give buying in again some serious thought when the time comes. There are lots of positives.
Best wishes
Red
XX
Red,
Farewell for now and best of luck with your investing. I fully sold up my Cey holding somewhere below £1 as it was getting too painful watching it drop daily. I then bought back in for a fraction more than I had sold because I realised that I still believed in the Cey story.
Best wishes,
Prof
It's been ages since my last post, and I thought I'd write one last post to tell you that I am no longer a Centamin share holder.
Sadly, I've taken this last week's opportunity to sell all my holding. With dividend reinvestment and occasional purchases over the years, I'd accumulated a reasonable holding - far too large to be comfortable with in any share portfolio - and so decided to hand them over to the traders for any remaining morsels from this brilliant run.
I don't know yet whether I will buy Centamin again. If I do go for precious metal miners, I think I'll stick with ones that afford less geopolitical risk. There are a small handful of miners that have done the right thing in the quiet period, and developed good mines that will come on line when the gold price is due to go ballistic again after a pause.
I firmly believe gold is still in a long-term bull market, despite any scary pullbacks we will see - they are inevitable, aren't they? I also firmly believe that equities are the place to be, again despite any scares (however painful). I will just try to choose the right sectors to be in at the right times in line with the economic cycle. I will avoid government debt at all costs. That will not be worth holding for the long term until well into the next decade (if I'm still around).
I will not sell any gold at this point. Rather, I shall buy more when my target price is reached. I was told by a mine owner many years ago that whenever a Labour government comes into office, for Ch**st's sake buy gold. When l look back at gold price charts, I think he was probably right.
Anyway, thanks for all the banter over the years. I haven't read the board for some time but I'm so pleased to see all the wise heads are still posting. If I do buy Centamin again, I'll let you know.
Very best wishes to you all.
Red (Svetlana, the communist economist).
XX
Absolutely Paul, the timing of a trade of this magnitude and type has all the hallmarks of FED who are trying to hold down the POG..
The EU realises that it makes sense to take BRICKS seriously, however the FED seems reductant to accept the reality that there is going to be an alternative reserve currency to the dollar!
On 1 January 2024, BRICS – the intergovernmental organisation comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – admitted four new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The group's decision to open the door to new members was taken at its Johannesburg summit in August 2023, sparking a debate about its growing international influence. According to estimates, BRICS+, as the organisation has been informally called since its expansion, now accounts for 37.3 % of world GDP, or more than half as much as the EU (14.5 %). However, besides an increase in economic power the new members could bring potential conflicts (Saudi Arabia/Iran or Egypt/Ethiopia) into the group, making the reaching of consensus on common political positions more difficult. Since the new members would only contribute roughly 4 % to the group's cumulative GDP, the significance of the expansion should be seen beyond the purely economic effect, in the form of greater influence for the group and for developing countries as a whole within international organisations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and the Bretton Woods institutions. The EU engages with BRICS+ countries individually. For instance, it has strategic partnerships with Brazil, India and South Africa, and is negotiating a free trade agreement with India. On the other hand, current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza show the divergent approaches to security taken by the EU and BRICS+. The European Parliament has stressed that further political dialogue with the BRICS countries is needed, including on an individual basis. In an exchange of views with European Commission representatives in October 2023, Members of the Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA) underlined the need to keep an eye on the group's expansion, especially considering the effect of a potential BRICS+ currency and the consequences for EU trade policy.
I think that if gold recovers or even stays at its current level, that for the next few Fridays we could have similar falls around close of play in London. I know people talk about profit taking and the like but that drop was pretty hard and fast around 4.30pm.
What utter bullsh*t some of these these market analysts and traders talk to try and justify what is blatant manipulation with paper contracts to control prices in favour of the USA
The US & FED wont be able to keep the price of gold down like it has done in the past foe very much longer because the Chinese have the real billion not the paper stuff and they will be able to buy with a gold back currency soon.
Lets wait and see what happens after the weekend especially if Iran carries out it's threatened strikes!
Interesting Prof and Lucky.
Barrick recovered to almost it's day start point after hours.
Crypto has come back a bit more as of now.
Markets marginally gained in last hour of trading (by gain I mean on the low point of the day). And gold marginally higher, and only marginally from the low point.
Will have to wait to see what Monday brings.
Enjoy the weekend and GLA.
Yes, unless dark forces like some say.... that the Fed is out there to manipulate gold price, fantasy land thinking.
POG already registered a measured drop on CPI news released this week, so the "bad new" was already factored in.
Recent price drop on Friday at close imo looks more a technical reaction of a price that was rising too fast and unsustainable.
One hour RSI is in oversold territory, and price is at kind of consolidation/support level for the last week.
One thing is for sure volatility is getting much higher which imo is not so good for miners sp, hoping for POG to consolidate and resuming upward movement at much slower pace, is likely many investors out there are looking at POG recent move from $2000 with suspicion, hence the slow reaction on miners sp...
But with central banks buying physical gold recent drop is only an opportunity to get in cheaper, lets see what China will do comes Sunday night, I suppose what we want to keep an eye on is the mid/long trend on POG and that is positive, USD, CPI and no rate cut haven't stopped POG so far.....why now?
Yesterday gold hit over $2,400. If Cey deliver at the bottom end of AISC that is 1,200 so are then also clearing $1,200 and oz.
To put it another way, that is the equivalent of having a gold price of $1,200, which we would have been perfectly happy with a few years back, and an AISC of zero - in other words free gold.
I don't know if gold will stay at this level, because I don't understand why it has suddenly moved up to this level. It seems that I am in good company as the so called experts seem to be all over the place both in their explanations for the recent surge and as to their view as to what comes next. However from the current gold price we could see a fall back of 15% and still be over $2,000 so clearing $800 an oz assuming the low end of AISC. I can't help but think that the current share price is not reflecting the fundamentals of CEY. At top end of forecast CEY will turn out 500k oz this year and will most likely clear $1,000-$1,200 per oz (post AISC).
Best wishes to all,
Prof
Gold futures have set another record high, with the rally driven by central bank purchases, safe-haven demand and geopolitical tensions. Iran set to reek revenge on Israel, and of course the US Navy comes charging in ... a pathetic mess, with no sustainable end in sight, ensuring a legacy of hatred unrivaled (on average 70 children have died every day for the last 6 months...collateral damage, gimme a break, give us all a break?) ....Back to gold
June futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were recently up 1.7% at $2,413.5 a troy ounce, having hit a fresh all-time high of $2,416.5 earlier in the session. They have gained 4.6% over the last week and over 14% in the year to date.
Strong purchasing by central banks and sustained demand from individual investors—particularly in China and India—continue to provide solid support for gold, attracting speculative investors and maintaining high prices, Sucden Financial analysts said in a note.
Gold has also gained as tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine boost its safe-haven appeal, ING analysts said in a note.
The precious metal has shrugged off Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. consumer-price index data, which had raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might postpone interest-rate cuts longer than initially anticipated and sent U.S. Treasury yields up. Gold traditionally has a strong relationship with interest rates, as higher rates reduce the appeal of the noninterest bearing metal, but the rally has persisted.
“With markets hovering around all time highs, investors are increasingly looking to assets like gold to provide a hedge against any risk of a stock market fall,” said Will Rhind, chief executive of GraniteShares and issuer of the BAR physical gold ETF in a note.
the gold gnome
A massive rally in gold and silver brought new attention to the precious metals market early Friday; however, it has also prompted warnings from some analysts that investors shouldn’t chase prices at current levels
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-04-12/silver-can-still-outperform-gold-even-after-hitting-brick-walls-friday-2990
Dave Kranzler, publisher of the popular Mining Stock Journal, to analyse drivers behind the current physically-driven gold and silver bull run.
The precious metals experts take listeners through the current drivers of short-term market movements, including the possibility of unforeseen black swan events and the now beta-tested BRICS currency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzqMJ1dMJFE
As I mentioned once before , the FED is in control and balancing between. Manipulation is the policymakers for the market.
I assume Gold will be back up again next week.
GLTA and have a nice weekend all.
Dan
Crypto also taken a whack- all on similar time frame as gold and markets in general.
Or is it simply out for the weekend !
One thing is certain,theres nothing we can do about it, but the night is young.
No idea Paul- other than on a super fast rise you do sometimes get a big drop, plus the US markets have taken a hit today so far.
A reasonable proxy to watch is barrick gold in the US as a miner if your bored and nothing to do tonight!
Else have a good weekend and enjoy the sun- at last!
I see gold is at $2363 at the moment , down $13 -----and it was up earlier to $2427. Is there a reason for this (news from America?). It seemed to drop a lot just before close in London----so is it a planned attack on the price?
The U.S. government may be tempted to restrain gold prices, but this would only serve to drive bullion higher, according to the latest GREED & fear report from Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jeffries.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-04-12/any-us-attempt-restrain-gold-price-would-backfire-jeffries-christopher-wood
Fifty years ago, on 18th March 1968, Robert F Kennedy gave a speech at the University of Kansas in which he famously questioned the authority of the Gross National Product (nowadays more often called the Gross Domestic Product or GDP) as a legitimate measure of national wellbeing. The GDP ‘measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country’, he said. ‘It measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile!"
https://cusp.ac.uk/themes/aetw/rfk-gdp50/
From the BBC programme’s website:
For nearly a century, governments around the world have measured the health of their economies by a single metric: GDP, or Gross Domestic Product. It measures a country’s economic growth, and over the years has become a shorthand for national progress; a rising GDP is generally understood to mean more people in work, more companies in business, living standards on the rise.
Yet, as experts have argued for decades, there is a lot that GDP leaves out. While it measures the value of all goods and services produced and consumed in an economy, it doesn’t account for nature, wellbeing, or planetary health. To GDP, a 100-year-old carbon capturing tree is worthless until its chopped down and sold as timber. Cleaning up after disasters, such as extreme weather events, improve GDP due to the increase in spending – even as people and planet suffer the consequences.
In an age of climate breakdown, many economists are arguing that our obsession with GDP is damaging the planet. So is it time to ditch GDP as a measure of progress and come up with a new metric that puts sustainability at its core?
Presenters Jordan Dunbar and Tanya Beckett are joined by Kate Raworth, Senior Associate, Oxford University, Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainable Development, University of Surrey, Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts, and Celestin Monga, Visiting professor of public policy at Harvard University.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2drv
https://cusp.ac.uk/themes/aetw/bbc-climate-question/
Lol Mr Bond.
FTSE cracked through the 8,000 too!
Prob based on the the latest GDP which was up.
Happy Friday All :-).
As of now Gold 2400.
Just recently this share is showing OTC trades ,larger tranaction, which is not normal.
As for what entity responsible, to myself it does not matter,but likely not the west.
Unless its the FED,yes the FED. Very much on the quiet, after all who will notice a few trillions more on their national debt. They need it more than most.
Not going to explain why,tried that over the years but no one wants to listen.
Not so Irontaz - just taken out the Jan 2021 high
Surely this is going to blast off today !
Major European stock indexes traded higher in the premarket session on Friday as investors come from receiving the latest decision from the European Central Bank authorities of leaving interest rates unchanged one more time. During the day, relevant economic reports from Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Spain will be published.
The FTSE 100 rose 0.14%, the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.87% and the CAC 40 went up 0.54% at 8:00 am CET.
The euro lost by 0.14% against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.07108. Meanwhile, the pound traded 0.10% lower against the US currency to go for $1.25408 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AC
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend.
Gold having reached a new all time high is currently trading at $2386.35