The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Tibbs my expertise isn't the fine print relating to creative accounting so bow to your knowledge as I say in my submission from a mining perspective.
Hi Dasut
Considering you past processional involvement and knowledge of Sukari an very glad that you should feel that optimistic, lets hope your gut feelings are justified this time!
This needs an explanation Re discussions to alter the original arrangement?
The Annual Report shows payments/disbursements as follows:
$35M EMRA profit share
$24M Egypt royalties
$58M shareholders
So a pretty even split last year -
There is a lot of $ being spent and then 'capitalized' via the Capital waste clearing as non-sustaining the EMRA does have the opportunity to allow or deny a portion, thus Centamin not being able to recoup it, resulting in a payback schedule to the EMRA?
IF such a discussion is ongoing for a significant amount (i.e. if the EMRA demanded Centamin only be able to capitalize a stripping amount equal to the original LOM plan of 5.3 to 1 - I would expect CEO Horgan would be required need to make a clear announcement to shareholders of such a cost-recovery disallowance.
Traditionally these are the kind of things that get buried into the fine print of the annual report see an example on page 152 labelled key audit matter here:
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
There is more details on the hows and whys regarding stripping costs being allocated as capital on page 182 - where it also notes that the rise in such allocations was deemed as significant!
So this would seems to raise a red flag at the EMRA) 2021 being $59M and 2022 being $141M?
There was something in the report about the 15 year tax holiday coming to and end in 2025 but it also says that PGM will submit a 15 year extension as well. IDK how a 50/50 profit split agreement could also be expected to pay income taxes and why such a holiday and extension would be needed - but I suspect it's not relevant to the share price yet.?
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/10/after-two-years-theres-still-no-law-enforcement-report-on-former-dallas-fed-president-robert-******s-trading-like-a-hedge-fund-kingpin/
october 31, 2023.
Tibbs what do you feel still needs fixing because where I am sitting if they achieve 4th quarter production the corner has turned and the new teams have set their own goals to achieve? Major capital expenditure at Sukari coming to an end and a good straight forward new resource in the offing at Doropo.
I am more optimistic than I have been for a long time, not jumping with joy but from a mining perspective I can see some light which reminds me of what I discussed with the Pharoah Gold teams back in the early years.
Next three months are however critical for the BOD to gain confidence from the market.
When aisc falls and gold rises it’s good- the prob has been the upward trajectory of the aisc exceeding the upward trajectory of the product it sells
I only agreed with you on his rationale for the poor SP. If he delivers on the timeframes in the presentation, the rise will be way quicker than you say and will be after what I pointed out
Steve we quite agreed about Horgan’s obfuscation about the share price at the presentation, if using different words. So excluding gold rising or falling from here, as you point out here, the big question is if/when profits will rise which is when ounces are met and then rise and AISC is actually seen to fall so could be at results but really for profits and shares to double more like a year or two if happens imho
The politicians have jumped on the EV wagon for a quick fix, unfortunately it isn't!, there may be far better alternatives!
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Toyota have a better alternative
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Mr Gnome,
In many respects the state of the financial merry-go around aspects of our world today are worse than they were back in the 1970's because the corrupt and greedy buggers that run it have created ever more faster, complicated and sophisticated systems to keep the general public ignorant of how it functions but still paying the heavy price to keep the merry-go-round turning!
But I do agree that enjoying some hu,our at times may help to lift everyone's spirits, including Centamin shareholders!
Enjoy!
For Ozzie's https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ojhtq51Ya8
Specially for Cowichan! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FshU58nI0Ts
Sport might help? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgSzGIkFq2A
Cey will take off if q4 delivers and lower end is met for the year- this is a big ask but Horgan seems convinced this will be case.
The presentation said it all- so will take off if this is comes to fruition
….So not GOOD for our dotage but great for grandkids. Hence gold
…sorry last line typo:
Viz 100 yr cycles as I think Machiavelli said
Hard time create strong men
Strong men create good times
Good times create weak men
Weak men create hard times
We have unfortunately been at the last. Put another way this generation has forgotten the 1930’s and 40’s that everyone did everything to avoid for next 70 years till forgot. So not only for our dotage but great for grandkids. Hence gold
Long 100 year cycles Mr Gnome, your grandchildren should have a fab time as have we. On another note I posted here this summer, when Hochschild got its Inmaculada extension, that its share price was way under Cey but should quickly return to its historic norm, around 40% above Cey, particularly with quieter Peru politics too. I posted further, a couple of weeks ago, when they were level pegging around 80 that Hoc should soon rip ahead and get over 100p, it did yesterday and if it doesn’t overshoot should end up near doubled in a few months to 120, wish I’d had the cash to buy more, but at least when I raised cash a few weeks ago to buy the Fisker Ocean EV, to cheer us up in this despond, I sold Cey THS and Japan and hung on to all the Hoc and more I had bought in summer. Now I am just hoping that hanging onto Cey and particularly THS will result in the same. Cey seems fairly values till when (if) as promised profits pick up again, but THS is valued on its PGM when actually most profit comes from chromium now, that is going great guns, just as Hoc had been valued on silver when actually it is now mainly gold. Also unlike Cey and Hoc, THS has great management so that is the one I hope will double again one day, as Hoc has nearly done, but not tomorrow. Cey not for a year or two unless gold takes off
Thanks Tony
I do feel terribly sorry for the next generation who has to put up with this legacy BS. Its a pathetic effort all round, with neither side showing any abilitiy to learn from the past 2,000 years, not to mention interfering forces interested in feathering their own nest.
The US looks after the financial system it largely created, which oddly perhaps favours themselves !?
All I can say is thank goodness none of my 6 children have ever bought a newspaper, are completely uninterested in the endless anxiety machinery, and are disinterested in peoples who resort to violence as a means to an end, and we won't mention "democratically" electing "well meaning?" psychopaths...
I am off for a friendly howl at the moon, and a splash in the sea ...
Must work on my sense of humour more often ... the alternative does not seem to be that good ...
best
the gnome
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Thursday after the ING Group and the Lufthansa Group revealed annual jumps in their third-quarter revenues. Later in the day, the Eurozone and Germany will post their latest results in manufacturing. The latter country will also unveil its current unemployment rate.
The DAX went up by 0.61% at 8:02 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 gained 0.26%. The CAC 40 rose by 0.65%. The Eurostoxx 50 expanded by 0.68%.
The euro grew by 0.28% against the dollar at 8:03 am CET to sell for $1.05986. At that minute, the pound sterling increased by 0.19% against the United States currency to change hands for $1.21747.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Take your pick Tony ,there are many,
I thought it interesting beforehand that Bloomberg fielded two analysts one suggesting USA was back in a 1967 scenario and another implying it was early 1990's and trying to make out comparisons. The elephants in the room in both cases ignored was USA current fiscal debt soaring and a lack of revenue to be delivered by growth. The demographics base has also changed dramatically and a lot of technology advances that gave superb productivity growth in those times are now absent. I agree with what zero hedge published tonight that this is far closer to what arose in 1970's. The quality of USA leadership with Ford who was questioned if he could walk and chew gum at the same time reminds of us Biden. Nixon and Trump both like creative accounting.
As for tonight's FED move all was as expected. Basel III was kicked into the long grass of 2024 and everything with regional Banks is apparently just dandy. It looks like joe public USA is getting blamed for all the spending instead of the runaway fiscal activities of the Biden administration. No mention of debt going up $650B in a month as it is ordinary people now spending wage increases keeping the economy hot. Of course the magical job numbers creation programme is all believed, however a crafty caveat was included that also covered any data on GDP. The caveat was that data can be substantially altered in several years time after deeper analysis. This of course sums up the wizardry of market manipulations and eventually accountability revealed when some of the architects might well be all dead and along with many investors who were caught on the wrong side of the FED and major bankers game plans.
I suspect the seeds of a gold miner and gold rally may well now be in play by the end of this month. The unknown of course is whether Iran flies a drone into a tanker somewhere inconvenient to its neighbours and we can barely afford to put petrol in the car (for those of us who have not bought an EV yet). I suppose in that scenario things would lift up gold as well but I of course hope it does not happen. All the best to my readers out there and remember to keep a sense of humour I recall there was plenty of about in the 1970's and they needed plenty of it back then.
Tony
Mr Bond all depends on the wine list and quality of food on offer.
Doaa A.Moneim , Wednesday 1 Nov 2023
"Other factors include the surge in Egypt's one-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) to 2,013 bps from 1,230 in mid-September, widening the gap between the parallel and official FX rates to as much as 50 percent and 30 percent between the Real Exchange Rate (RER) and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) models.
https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/511406.aspx
Tongue in cheek , :-)
So where would you choose for a vacation,Sharm el Sheik 5 star all inclusive 100 euros per night or Israel.
But if you do go to either ,remember to say nothing about politics of the region. ;-)
November 1, 2023 12:00AM EDT
The Egyptian authorities have arbitrarily detained and prosecuted dozens of peaceful protesters in demonstrations since the beginning of October 2023, Human Rights Watch said today. The authorities should remove overwhelming restrictions on the right to peaceful assembly, release all those detained solely for joining or calling for peaceful protests, and drop charges against them.
She said that when the protesters arrived at Tahrir Square, security forces and men in civilian clothes pushed them out of the square, chased protesters through the surrounding streets, and randomly arrested people.
Security agencies also arrested several activists they believed were connected to the protests at their homes.
the Supreme State Security Prosecution (SSSP), which ordered all of them to be kept in pretrial detention. They faced charges of “joining a terrorist group,” participating in “illegal assembly,” “committing a terror act,” and vandalism.
authorities presented no evidence of a criminal offense in any of the cases. Human Rights Watch found no allegation of violence in government-affiliated or independent media reports.
Throughout October, security forces have violently dispersed and detained protesters at other separate anti-government peaceful gatherings.
Human Rights Watch has documented that the Egyptian military has unlawfully evicted tens of thousands of North Sinai residents since 2013 under the pretext of battling an Islamic State-affiliated armed group.
On October 15, security forces detained at least 10 men and 3 women after dispersing hundreds of teachers who gathered in front of the Education Ministry in the new administrative capital east of Cairo to protest the mass disqualification of thousands of teachers who applied for public school jobs, according to social media videos and media reports. The reports said that security forces beat protesters, used water cannons to disperse them, and forced female teachers into buses to remove them from the protest.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/01/egypt-dozens-peaceful-protesters-detained
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Truth be told Sisi cares nothing for either - dictators treasure 1 thing & 1 thing only - power
Looking on the bright side at least with Centamin nearer the bottom it doesn't have so far to fall !
Hi Dasut,
I agree no magic wand could fix Sukari, but that aside if a few would be suitors expressed interest in buying out Centamin it may at least be a catalyst to invigorate the share price or at the very least encourage others to look at the true potential and value of Centamin.