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I thought Winterfloods not doing so well?
Plenty of wiggle room here, I reckon Winterflood worth the current market cap alone…
These figures being banded about are pure guesswork from useless journos and analysts who quietly frankly as useful as a handbrake in a canoe
"That’s usually because they’re privy to noise average Joe doesn’t hear."
It's why I am getting more into ETFs
That’s usually because they’re privy to noise average Joe doesn’t hear.
Markets aren’t perfect, someone knows. You don’t have aggressive downward pressure like this. No smoke without fire
Apologies, not labelling any one specific person as a short but typically when short positions increase then there’s always a lot of accompanying noise.
As long as updates are objective I always like to listen to both sides of an argument as it helps build a clearer picture.
I done my calculations and researched best I can .
I stuck my ISA into this it will either lose me my money or make me a million over time. Are there risk yes but the returns could be 400% over time. I am betting I am right with the 400%
Time will tell.
Adam, FYI I'm not short. I just don't stick my head in the sand and hope for the best.
This is why 77% of private investors lose their money. You have to research buddy. You've made your decision and good luck with it. But I wouldn't everyone else to ignore the comments.If you read it's all relative.
There was no fraud the people selling the car can only make a decision on the punters ability to pay by what they are told about it. Not all dealers are dishonest and it is only your word against there’s in what they were told, so I am sure they will be a lot of chancers making claims by claiming they were stupid and didn’t understand what they were doing.
Many figures being banded about but the range of those figures suggests that no one really knows the scale of compensation at this stage.
I’m in CBG at a little over £3 and only time will tell whether or not it’s a good investment, until then better to ignore any noise from shorts and wait for the facts to materialise.
Good luck to anyone else holding 🤞
Those numbers (whilst very wide of each other) back up where my estimates are. This is why there is huge drops because of the unknowns.
Lloyds and larger big players can take that hit straight away. An 800gbp hit to close brothers will probably close them down.
Analysts at UBS have the hit to Close Brothers from the FCA’s motor finance inquiry could be anywhere between £30 million and £830 million. Benjamin Toms, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, estimates the car loans industry as a whole could face a bill of £16 billion, with Lloyds Banking Group, a big player with a £15 billion motor finance loan book, shouldering a £2 billion hit.
I think that’s why investors are rushing for the exist door. The uncertainty and opportunity cost of putting your cash to work elsewhere whilst this goes on.
Long term holders might do fine but you might be waiting a long while. It appears it’s a done deal in terms of a liability, how the pie is sliced is going to take time. Then there’s going to be all the people who have died/won’t make a claim etc.
There should be but in truth none of us know what's going to happen.
I an ideal world this gets thrown out and thus we have a great bargain. But I think based on the FCA report this will turn out to be a PPI based case.
At which point Close will have to looking at the findings and release to the market what this means to them. This is again something none of us know and it's all speculation. Hence I've tried to look at the numbers that I will work too. It's got many months maybe years to run yet though
Will there be any liability to the underlying dealer?
The average 3kgbp claim included the 8% interest per annum.
What I haven't account for is the costs close need to take into account processing these and legal fees etc.
There will also be significant fines and interest to be paid on the actual differences considering opportunity cost of money stolen from consumers. 2010 money ain’t 2024 money.
If your 650 m was correct,first of the FCA have to rule it against us .
Then you have to take into account claim %
Deaths
Dealers gone bust
Any legal contracts which prevent claims from dealers clients.
That would probably knock your 650 million done to 300m
And if all else fails if the motor division is classed as it own business just close it down 1 bad reputation knock is better than a 3 year drag.
So here is my calculation based on averages. Over the 10 year period they loaned 1.5billion. Average car loan was 7k.
Ive divided 7k gbp by 1.5b gbp and multiplied the answer by the average estimated claim which is 3k gbp
The magic number I got to was 650m gbp.
This is all guess work and estimates but I prefer to work off this number than 100-200m that's been suggested as I believe that's just too low.
If Lloyds bill is estimated at a billion and they are the biggest player by far, how do you work out cbg are on the hook for billions
Close
If you want to buy this stock you may as well burn your cash.
100%. Those close to the investigation know how widespread this is. Outright fraud has taken place, much worse scale than the mortgage mis-selling imho
It depends on their exposure to this fraud and they’ll have to pay, no ifs, no buts. The big boys they went to bed with have a much stronger balance sheet to stomach losses. CBG however…going to the wall and the market knows.
Close Brothers plc share price crashed after the litigation notes provision last year and then issued debt to fund a share buy back. abrdn has reduced its shareholding in close as its funds impacted which could result in withdrawals and further share price falls. Both abrdn and close are shorted. Maybe more bad news to come ?
Don't write things that won't happen. They will not sent a banc in bancrupty will all the problems related to it.
No one will be buying an unquantifiable liability to the fraud they have partaken in.
Sweepers will be waiting for the carve up when they can’t afford to pay the bill given how small they are