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Sensible trade ….good level
Bought in here at £3.20
Well they'll need to close their shorts, they've made plenty fuelling off uncertainty, let's see the directors step in and buy some more at this silly price
Mostly bulls on here. capitulation not even in sight.
Just topped up …love these pullbacks,need to look through all this noise very big opportunities here
840, 000 shares just bought through arranged trade at £3.54. Ignore the bull
Well director buys will fuel confidence and let's see them come, I concur with Asset Finance International view, value to be had imo
Oh and fre1, thanks for the considered response.
Kind of my point. I don't know what's justified and I don't know how hard the FCA investigation will hit CB. I approach it differently. I think (from experience and history) that there will be some good 'beta' on the SP that you can profit from if you can nail the ups and downs. So, when I say I think there's a good chance of us seeing 295-300, I'm not making a comment on the value of the business (but I am looking at the size of the price drop from 800), I'm just considering the confusion now in the market about what the business is worth, how hard the investigation will hit that value and the fact that most of us have no idea where the price will settle. History suggests and I believe the price will settle above it's current value so I'm bullish. But even though I'm bullish, 349 where I dropped out did not look like value any longer (in the short term). The lower I can enter, then the less I can lose. I hate being on the wrong side of price movement and having that 'trapped in' feeling when the tide backs off and I'm left sitting on a loss wondering what to do. So I try to be disciplined and patient and move with the tides.
The time factor is also very significant. I agree with you that it will take time to resolve and during that time period the media is likely, one way or another, to have the SP on the front and back foot at different times.
Also the rreduction in the millenium short position may very well explain yesterdays rise. If there is no continued short covering (marshal wace?) then confusion in the PI's cohort will likely allow this to drift back down.
So a £5 drop is justified is it? This business is solid, generating profits and drop largely driven by divi being removed. If you read the latest rns, company has taken a very prudent view and no doubt in my mind will reinstate divi in future. The FCA view is largely overblown and will take a while to resolve across industry. In fact Asset Finance International view is, quote:
"...Based in part on my new research, published by Apex Insight, I believe the eventual outcome from this will be far less dramatic than many appear to be assuming...."
btw are you short?
What do you mean by 'oversold' fre?
From a charting perspective it could be related to the postition of certain indicators (largely lagging) and doesn't always provide information relevant to the next SP move although it might act as a guide to start watching more closely.
I'm completely guessing here, but I don't think you're talking about indicators. Are you just saying that from a notional point of view the SP has dropped a lot and without any particular knowledge, you've taken the view that the SP has now fallen below what is justified by the 'misselling of motor insurance' policies?
Hugely oversold just look at where we were £8, will see this recover as business is solid
Can't help wondering whether this will come off to around 295-300p. Longer term it looks likely to yield a good profit long though. I'm sitting out for the moment, but watching for buyers to come back.
More covers than at Headingly….
Good luck, will watch with interest
Hope you get a great move
Will not be overly surprised if we hit >£4 before COB this Friday !!!
See we had a few 🔔ends popping up early doors 🤣. I see Millennium @ zero now and Marshall Wace will be playing games attempting to bail but already below the 0.5% disclosure rate.
Recommend reading this excellent analysis. And I noted on the ML money programme last night from Newcastle, that he appeared to be much less ebullient with respect to FCA investigation and the potential with fits with the narrative described in analysis below.
Https://www.assetfinanceinternational.com/index.php/regulation/auto-invest/legal-auto-investigation/23453-viewpoint-what-s-the-likely-cost-of-the-fca-investigation
Worth a read.
This has been massively oversold, watch the re-rate over next few weeks.
It would be funny if they did a share buy back ,but no nothing will happen until FCA reports.
I know uncertainty seems to blight the company. The dividend has been removed for rational reasons which few would argue with having lost so much share price. Given the recent information released suggesting this storm may not rock the company as first thought,would the board consider a small buyback(10-20mil) It would in my opinion take advantage of the unjust price loss.
80milion required for dividend
2022 after tax profits and write down 165m.
2023 from memory was around 80m including the 110m write down which started the share price drop .
6months update 2024 from memory adjust profits 120m
After FCA all sorted we have a core business that in normal times makes 165m after tax profits with ,,80m dividend with coverage . that has dropped 70% in value
When the dividend returns it will certainly be nothing like the previous levels near 70p which was not even covered by earnings
A dividend of 30p is probably the maximum
When the dividend returns there no guarantees but it should be at 19% do the other 2 pay 19%
I know there risk but i think the panic has been over done against the possible returns
There are several cheaper and safer banks such as OSB, STB, Halyk, trading at much lower forecast PE levels than CBG, and with far less risk and uncertainty
Lol
Just ask yourself why they’ve just downgraded
Future dividend of 19% that has a good chance of growing and is cover what's not to like. compound dividend on this could be crazy plus possible huge share price rise.
CBG is a very healthy company from what I can see.
Its a money making machine. Its had some clinches along the way but the core is sound.
I think this is going to be one heck of a roller-coaster ride over the nest 6 months.