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Thanks CC. I hope you are right. I'm a big supporter of the shallow wells and believe we should be backing our winners and drilling more of them. If we can move to 3-4000 BOPD with SY back on stream and a shallow well program then it's happy days and all round to FK's place for a party! This was where I thought we were going in 2020 before Covid. 153 should of course have been part of that growth but the lack of news might suggest it's a duffer. OK, so we put that behind us, shift the rig, and move on. We have been informed SY should be back on stream by year end so that may be the next piece of news but again I would have expected to see an RNS on the licence approval if we are going to hit that date. I'm not a supporter of the boat. CASP are an oil company and boat hire seems like a distraction. Again, hope I'm proved wrong. Sub 2000 BOPD is no better than 3-5p in my opinion so we need the management to deliver for us or there is no point being here, patient or not.
CC thanks for the reminder. I forgot they did that on A5. Hopefully the sort 3A soon and a well gets spud. I hope they already have the target picked. They might even be hoping the deal falls thru. We will soon have cash to drill it ourselves.
Sommm let’s be realistic, if they were flow testing a deep do you think there would be zero trades all day?
I’d say our only hope of good news is a boaty charter. Other than that I’m just hoping Mjf has maintained flow rates.
Yep said it before that the A8 Deep Well could have oil all the way down to the Devonain TD 5,300m.
Don;t forget they have 4 oil bearing inervals down to 5,046m.
What do thy have from 5,046m to 5,300m?
Could be pretty decent net pay/ flow rates, if so, they've been flow testing for 2 weeks already :-) and then the 4 intervals need flow testing boot.
Oh Oh Oh my Devonians!
One day soonish:
Like a broken record I'd reply this doesnt need the deeps to multibag, it has two shallow fields that are being horizontally drilled, a boat to rent or sell and an oilfield at 3ab to sell off.
Deeps, they can wait until next year after weve derisked at 20p on the dividend news that comes from these compounded successes.
Rhertig, if you reread A5 RNS they flow tested it for a few days before releasing an rns, subsequently on the side tracks, info was released historically, within reason they can do what they like.
If a deep flowing is not a material event I give up even trying to figure that one out. Not sure how UK law works. If that happened here in the US there would be lawyers chasing everyone who sold between when the flow started and the news release.
Trying to think through why the expected RNS is delayed and there are a few obvious reasons e.g. 153 being re-drilled, boat contract close to being completed. But there is another possibility that is intriguing me. What if A8 was flowing oil. I wouldn't announce it immediately as the stock price would be limited because people would remember A5 and be concerned about a similar result. Better to wait a while and be able to announce a strong flow result over a number of weeks and be able to re-assure people that we are not heading towards an A5 scenario.
Pure speculation on my part but the truth is none of us has the foggiest what will be in the next RNS and I'm a born optimist.
Thanks CC. I've been here since the Roxi days. In and out over the years but I still believe there is potential. What I want to see is steady continuous improvement. Covid and the likes are outside of CASP control and not everything will go the way we want but the trend needs to be upwards. I bought in again when we got the licence to sell at international prices and I think this is the only reason we still have a business following the trials and tribulations of the last couple of years. I thought Shin's appointment was a step in the right direction. Still do but yet to see the difference. I also bout more in 2019 when the plan for more shallows was offered up. Doh! Communication has always been "iffy" in my opinion. August RNS now starting to look like another damp sqib. Do I believe that they have learned from the work on the deeps to date? No, so not expecting anything wonderful at A8. Don't get me wrong I would turn cartwheels if we get a deep to flow but they have had more than 3 strikes with no runs on the board. They say that doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome is a mark of madness. Just not sure if it's me or the CASP management that are suffering from this condition.
Same as at Tengiz.
1. Prove up the hydrocarbons exist in scale at depth.
2.Prove that they are flowable.
3.Work out the science and technology to flow them.
People are posting here like theyve bought into the latest AIM pump and dump.
This will take time, the next RNS isnt the destination it is an indication of what the next deep drill will expect to encounter, if it does the same as A8 we gave a beast of an oil field on our hands and the Tengiz consortium will be walking over to ask the price.
Ignore the flippers, research the science and geology, poo is staying where they need it to open up all of these fields.
They’ve had 7 years of failure on the deep program to date. That’s probably a little unfair as Covid has played a part so let’s say 6 years. Not failure in finding oil but pointless finding it if you can’t flow it commercially. They know the challenge is heat and pressure and the importance of preventing a blow out. Obviously not easy but hopefully our Shin has changed his approach this time to avoid the loss of tons of drilling fluid into the fractured structure. Maybe SBFs are being used this time as Halibut has intimated but I thought that would increase the chance of the dreaded blow out , I suppose we get to see this week.
I think the answer will be minimising the use of bentonite and using synthetic based fluids (SBFs).
https://petrowiki.spe.org/Drilling_HP/HT_wells
I’m hoping to see no loss of drilling fluids but that’s probably unlikely.
We’ll hopefully know this week but no more BS
KK,
Nevertheless they're going to have ton's of drilling fluid down there that will take time to be removed.
Perhaps the old 'last new' acid treatment they used will do the trick this time around (different zone)?
Who knows the Devonain may not have flowed and they've been testing the 4 oil bearing intervals instead for the past month?
Next week we may get to know where all the wells are at?
The mud recirculates and if they’re having to recover it they’re overbalanced and blockage time again. I’m hoping that Shin is using a different approach as if we’re using the same Barite mud, how are they going to achieve a different result. Loss of drilling fluids will block the fractures and fissures and hey presto, here we go again !
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344459830_Dynamic_analysis_of_mud_loss_during_overbalanced_drilling_operation_An_experimental_study
Don't forget it takes a fair bit of time to remove the tons of mud, especially from a deep well, so I'd guess that's one reason why we're still waiting on an update on the A8 Deep Well that likely hit TD only a couple of weeks ago, and is hopefully flow testing to boot.
The A8 Deep Well is the meat of the next RNS and they'll want to get it's progress out to PI's right and not half baked.
What will come first the OP's Update RNS or the Turkey?
Pass the Cranberry...........
I wish I had been out of it for the last 6+ years!
I wouldn't want to be oout of this over the winter.
There is one trade now but we have possibly broken the record for the ratio of posts to trades
How do we have zero shares traded today? That has to be a first.
Or, I'm looking forward to tasting those kazak spring time lamb chops ...
How about I wouldn,t want to be out of this over Christmas.
Is it too early to say 'wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend' ?
I understand Clive's view that monthly reporting was hurting sentiment but quarterly reporting isn't exactly fixing that. The August RNS gave us a plan with some timelines. Failing to update us on timelines that have been and gone (153) and other news that was deemed immanent is poor. Those of us long on CASP have invested our money in the business and deserve to be treated like owners not mushrooms.
The wait is disappointing and suggests that our Clive is waiting for positives to offset a poor 153 result probably. The strategic/financial update was very positive with cash flow improve the as a result of 154 and sustained Crude prices above $70 allowing them to accelerate operational activity.
We don’t know what news is coming but if there’s material news like another win at 153, we’d know about it. Obviously issues and probably re-drilling it or drilling 144 and waiting result. KO also not done the debt for equity swap which to me also points at disappointment as he’s still taking the interest. I believe it was his last feed at the trough and expecting a positive 153 but didn’t happen.
We all want the sp up and we’re all impatient to see it but it will come. The shallows alone give us growth and the likelihood of barge rental is high, just taking time or maybe that’s as a result of it being a sale agreement rather than a charter ?
A8, probably nothing to say yet and SY, licence award and 3AB probably the same. Assets haven’t disappeared and it’s taking time to realise the value.
They’re in a miles better place now as a profitable OE company with cash to execute their operational schedule without dilution, that’s a good place to be.
Everyone will get frustrated with delays but there is plenty of value in the pot and they have the money to exploit it and we just have to wait. If sp drops as a result of next news , providing it’s not a disaster, it will be another huge buy opp for those with funds to take advantage.
No it wont drop lower than 3p this side of xmas. Next year who knows !