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Adjusted EPS of13.5% with close to 100% cash conversion implies a free cash flow yield of 12.2%. Can easily see this repricing to 8-10% or 135p-168.75p with 150p mid point.
Yep. Or 140p, if one were to hopefully be a little on the conservative side.
Not that I am going to start counting chickens....surefire way to seeing the little blighters catch bird flu, and there goes the profit :)
Just read this on Investors chronicle
But the lowly rating of seven times forward consensus earnings prices in the opportunity. Hold.
How on earth is p/e if 7 pricing the opportunity in? Who writes such nonsense is the reason I’m sticks are so undervalued
Peel Hunt are still calling it a Hold … not a Buy… what does card have to do to get brokers on board… what a joke
@bhaveen, the IC are an absolute joke.
Here's the conclusion to their last piece on 26/09;
"The lowly forward rating of eight times consensus earnings reflects the question marks hanging over the business despite the respectable interim outturn. Hold."
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/09/26/card-factory-faces-challenging-christmas-as-online-sales-fall
And then todays contradiction;
"But the lowly rating of seven times forward consensus earnings prices in the opportunity. Hold. "
Turns out they nailed Christmas, reinstated a 5% dividend, derated from 8x to 7x and are still a hold. Embarrassing doesn't come close to describing the output of that magazine.
And this time last year;
"Investec analysts argued that the company “has recovered well from Covid with its strategic initiatives delivering better profitability”. As the board works towards targets of annual revenues of £650mn and a pre-tax profit margin of 14 per cent in financial year 2027, we think that is accurate. The shares trade at a consensus 10 times forward earnings, according to FactSet, slightly above the 5-year average of 9 times. Hold."
And of course that 5 year period included Covid...
Found Stockopedia much better than IC which went really downhill around time of covid lockdowns, with it developing a political agenda publishing bizarre articles for an investment magazine such as why the BBC should be publically funded, recommending speculative hydrogen companies near their highs and how BP and Shell were outright sells even near their lows due to net zero, no future need for oil and stranded assets. Became very patronising to subscribers as well describing segments as Education.
Paul Scott on it reckons good value , possibly worth 130 to 150p. Added small amount today as with the resumption of dividends, hopefully erratic shareprice movements are in the past.
Evening guys. I’m mainly just a gambler, though I know a good company when I see one, and gets the basics, also from Shaky Wakey! Originally bought at 40p, sold, and got back in at 91p about a month ago.
Could someone explain to me as a dummy on this….but how do dividends work in terms of, do you have to had the shares for a certain amount of time before eligible etc?
Or can anyone just jump on now, buy, and be eligible?
Buy the shares before the 30 May (day before the ex dividend date) and the divi is all yours.
However, be prepared that the price will probably drop by at least the amount of the dividend on the 31st May, so buying your first tranche purely for the dividend is likely to to end in dissapointment.
Thanks Neil, appreciated
Got it, so you can buy now and get the divi, however the likelihood of it dropping by the same amount of the divi then just counteracts it. So counter entutive, however the prospect of long term hold then makes it much more viable.?
Id allow a bit more time than that for the trade to have cleared ... Also you have to factor in a potential rise in share price on the run up to ex divi day may well cost you more than the divi you receive. You may earn more buying now hoping for a nice rise and selling prior to ex divi day. Thats the gamble you can also take. So If you thinks its good value now then buy now, dont wait.
Oh man on the face of its great value still and I’m ready to. It more… but with this one you just don’t know what will happen now results have been digested… we’ve never fared well after results … let’s see what today brings!
Just now it went from 107.65 straight to 109, yet barely any trades, under 20,000 shares. How's that work? II's building?
I would love to get into the mind of a seller on this… you’ve got something about to pay you over 4 percent yield (for some more depending on buy price) and you’ve got a great foundation, increased online and the company have already said they are on track for growth this year with record mothers days sales so a great chance of share price appreciation… so why sell now? At least get the divi and H1 trading out of the way …. I just don’t get it
Agreed Bhaveen, but everyone has different perspective and objectives, so I wouldn't worry too much about there being willing sellers of what appears to most LTH's to be a rock solid investment to hold for income and growth.
If someone has bought in the low 90's only a couple of weeks ago, then sold at around 111 yesterday, they will think (rightly) that they have done well.
The difference is that they will now move on to their next short term investment, will LTHs' sit it out for what we believe to be the real prize which will only become fully apparent in 6-12 months from now.
Meantime, I'm happy to enjoy the inevitable slow but steady ride upwards as this company continues to develop and grow, and I also look forward to receiving a nice chunky dividend in June, plus the promise of reinstatement of interims which would normally be payable around December.
That is simple: they either think this has topped, or need the cash for something else, or are realigning their p/f as part of a risk management strategy.
I have done the latter many times in a stock I remain bullish on, when I feel I am overweight in it, for example.
Sure, it can be annoying sometimes when you see 'lost' profits when the SP continues to rise, but not as annoying as seeing larger profits vanish in a market sell off, or something else unforeseen that can change the bullish narrative.
If I had bought in the 90's, I probably would not be selling or trimming just yet.
If I had bought in the 50's or so? You bet I would! While leaving a decent slug to run from here.
But we all have to play the cards as we see them. GLA.
Yes very true about playing it how we feel… it’s my largest holding … average at 60… and I ain’t selling one share until end of FY25 when they’ve had a full year of trading history with their polished website, partnerships in the Middle East and a change to act on what they describe as their “progressive dividend policy “…. My second liar gets holding in Nvidia and I ain’t selling a dollar of that either. I’ve been burnt too many times exiting early. But who knows eh… notes to more big sells of 175k each today … makes me wonder if my strategy is correct but it is what it is.
Nice. Roughly 7% dividend here for you in that case I think? Either way, it sounds like you have a solid and considered strategy.
The usual drag is impacting this share - it should be well over 110p today. The big difference this time round is the dividend and xd date on 31st May! The game players can't really beat that new and huge help in driving the price to a more sensible place.
A lot of people in mng and lgen are selling before x dividend and banking profits because we know how awful the UK market really is.
Take mng it was 234 on day before x dividend 27th march, then 13p dividend reduced on x dividend day to 220 on 28th March, it's now 198.
So given the high yield , people are now starting to accumulate again at much lower prices before the inevitable rise back at some point before x dividend again. Then rinse and repeat.
The market makers in this country make it hardly worth buying and holding these days.
I find that's true with declining shares, but not growing companies or undervalued shares. Take your pick - I will stick with it, take the div and look forward to the next one.
What a waste of f-----g time this is.
It’s very disheartening…. I really hope today is a just a little blip and we don’t start going back to 1.00 … but if we do I’m topping up
Games games games. We know this will rise substantially before 31st May. Don't be fooled into selling cheap. I've just bought a few more!