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First off a solid set of results considering at the half year results cash was down to $50m to end the year with $57m in my book is a good recovery.
It should be noted there has been heavy spend on projects at Sasa, and the solar project, and in the results it mentions additional spend on equipment.
Secondly we have cu prices at near all time highs, and research suggests it's going to stay there in the short term, the other metals are recovering as well especially if you look over a five year time frame.
Thirdly the divi is excellent and they reiterated there stance it's 30 -50 of fcf.
As for the the investment in Aberdeen it's small scale and as far as I can see backed by the UK government as a green necessity with grants as opposed to oil and gas which is negatively supported by government and at present investable due
I thought they were 'Cantral Asia' Metals. Even if they did find something worthwhile in the UK (most likely, rusted shopping trolleys), the government would introduce a windfall tax to steal all the profit, so I have absolutely zero interest in them investing my money in the UK. I'll be thinking hard before investing any future money in CAML.
But they are investing in Kaz as well, probably more so. I view this as a low cost long term option. Correspondents to existing mine life at SASA and Kounrad?
Fully sold today. Expect this to dip much lower.
They are in Kaz, a tier 1 mining jurisdiction, awash wirh metals and possibly one of the last great jurisdictions with massive exploration potential. I was born and raised in Aberdeen. This is pure desperation if they are investing in the UK for exploration.
I've viewing the grades and meters, nothing spectacular at all. Keep in mind mining in uk will be very expensive and will take a decade plus to get a mine into production if all goes perfect! The environmentalists and locals will have court case after court case lined up for them.
Nothing short of stupid, to not invest the money in Kaz/Central asia but Uk.
Https://aberdeenminerals.com/news/news-releases/
Getting UK gov grant funding. Explo results are there to see as well.
No the best idea IMO. These starts up will drain cash over years, for a non quantifiable return IMO
Divi cut was expected, disapointing in there investment, early stage, going green energy route.
Results are very solid and the investment in aberdeen metals is small but with the potential to deliver value if exploration is positive. Not complaining for now
Bailed last lot at 183 looking for a retrace …. Starting a new Copper mine from scratch can take years … so CAML needs to move quickly in my view … just about broken even over the year so not great but clawed back a 20% drop.
Glad I exited Friday, the divi cut is fine but 3m in Aberdeen, an expo money pit. Really. I guess at least it’s only 3m!
Usual caveats
Trek
CNBC were very briefly talking about the looming copper shortage.
At the April Ex div the share price was £2.07. the carried on falling. I can see this rising up to the next div and carrying on rising instead of dropping back.
GLA LTH
Looking good now copper at $4.06
Copper over $4 now.
Bloomberg tv reporting China restrictions on copper could create a huge spike.
Last week’s article
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-copper-zinc-hit-5-week-highs-on-china-trade-data-smelter-cut
Absolutely flying
Copper price is flying today, hopefully caml can catch up.
Volumes were light today .... did anyone notice the £100K sell yesterday at 154? Looked like a fat finger error to me ... reckon someone was obliged to buy back.
Generally speaking the UK markets look highly unstable .... in out in out and shake it all about .... my kind of market.
Slight improvement in global economic sentiment --> small increase in metal prices --> small increase in CAML share price. Could easily reverse again, but let's hope for the best. Still holding for the medium to long term, so don't care much about the share price, except in so far as it reflects metal prices and profits.
I'm with boreddesigner on this one, last weeks downturn seemed a bit random and unjustified imo so I am viewing today as a correction. I personally won't be letting any of my shares go until after the end of year results in less than 3 weeks time. Hopefully we will be back at the 170's in a week or two. GLA
Well done, little premature I recon. I'm looking for 170's by the end of the month, fingers crossed
Nice suprise today ... taken some off the table .... looking for 150s again ... but no problem if not.
GLA
Yes I have invested at these levels with the same belief that the share price will recover. In FY2022 there was the impairment of non-current assets of about -55 million USD, this resulted in the profit after tax being lower (33.8 M USD for FY22 compared to 84.2 M USD in FY21). However, hopefully when the end of year financials are released (I think the end of this month) it will be stronger than last year.
I also am hoping for a strong copper performance this year:))
GLA!
The market is forward looking but it's worth pointing out CAML comfortably achieved their 2023 guidance and ended the year with a cash position marginally below where it sat a year after (post dividends of more than $20m).
Copper production guidance - 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes vs actual 13,816 tonnes
Zinc production guidance - 19,000 to 21,000 tonnes vs actual 20,338 tonnes
Lead production guidance - 27,000 to 29,000 tonnes vs actual 27,794 tonnes
Guidance for 2024 has been set at the same level as 2023 with gross margins having only reduced by 5-10% yet the share price is down almost 45% in the past 12 months! All debts cleared in the prior year, reduced financing costs therefore and now their sizeable cash pile is benefitting from higher interest rates. Even assuming a 25% cut in the total FY dividend from 20p to 15p CAML are still yielding 10% and with the USD set to weaken in the second half that should provide relief for base metal commodities.
This time last year CAML's 3 metals per tonne totalled $14,000. Today it's $13,000, so margins are under attack. There will be another hefty pay rise this year, which puts the dividend under the spotlight. They paid well over the 30-50% FCF for the interim dividend and they have cash in the bank, with most of the SASA capex paid out, but if the company stick to the 30-50% dividend payout, a cut is on the way.
The difficulty with CAML is a lacking in growth with 15 years or so of life left out of current assets as far as I can gather. Too much time between the takeover and Sasa and new acquisitions, where exploration should have started much earlier - but my guess is that the bet was to match Sasa with another deal over the past 5 years. Not happened and now two such deals are needed to replace existing production going forwards.
On the plus side, in 10 years CAML could have $360 Million in the bank having returned 200p to shareholders with 5 years or so to decommission and sell off machinery .... as well as having some returns from solar power to the locals.
So the share seems more like a bond is it stands now.
Anyone disagree?
On the plus side, however, cash rich and getting richer. Let's be conservative with 15p divi and 15p stored in the bank each year - makes 30p so current holders will have value equating to the current share price in a tad over 5 years from now in terms of divis and cash stored in the bank assuming current trend continues ...