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What can BUR do with Arg currency swap agreements with China?
Milei would struggle to Dollarisze his economy without settling Burfords court award, though if Trump gets elected anything could happen , including loaning his old mate from Argentina dollars to settle our court award plus dollars to dollarize his economy, and most likely a negotiated lower court award amount.
Milei already has his work cut out blackmailing the Argentine provincial provinces with their much needed funding money to get them to back his mega decree, that could work ok, though that whole country can't be pushed to much further. Good luck milei your going to need it in bucket full 's LOL.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/argentinas-us18-billion-chinese-fx-line-eyed-for-us-ypf-judgement.phtml
GLA.
As for the sp ? I’m very happy with where we’re at and really please with the spread the last 2-3 weeks. 😊Probably end the day circa 12.40 ????
‘Mid teens”. Just where ide like to be pre Petersen agreement!!!!!
Yes please
OK so US ends 12.30, we start at 11.80. Someone is playing games. Managed to grab some early though.
Yes, shorts have been reducing for days now in the US, let's hope they aim to close, this will mean this share will be less volatile in the future, and if the results are seen as positive, will see the next step up to mid-teens in the coming months.
Thanks to Seb for the link to this:
hxxps://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ad-hoc-committee-of-province-of-la-rioja-bondholders-responds-to-the-provinces-recent-announcement-regarding-payments-under-its-green-bond-302073253.html
..."The explanation by the Province of its failure to pay, which it attributes to the current economic situation in Argentina, is entirely specious. In fact, the problem with the Province is the disdain of its government for complying with legal and contractual obligations. The majority of proceeds from issuance of the Green Bonds were invested by the Province in its wind farm projects under Parque Eolico Arauco S.A. ("PEA"). In December 2022, the Province concluded a sale of 100% of Vientos de Arauco Renovables S.A.U., one of the undertakings of PEA, for US$171mm to Pampa Energia S.A.
Thus, having borrowed money from bondholders to build this project, the Province then sold the project for US$171mm and now purports to be unable to pay US$16mm of capital payment to its bondholders1. The excuses provided by the Province are those of a recalcitrant and recidivist defaulter...."
'Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore.'
GLA
Results are due mid march at the latest .. we will get 2 weeks notice .. so notice is imminent
(Those cases I wrote are not financed by BUR.)
I dont want to be too off, but its worth taking a look at GBU chart... when a financially stronger sovereign is waiting for a ruling.... with EU and other organizations membership, not paying is not an option... I have just come across recently a few example of arbitration against sovereigns (RML, GBU, MON...) and started to feel what a promising branch of finance where BUR is market leader.
MarketWatch has just reported that on the 15th Feb 24, the USA Short Interest reduced from 1.4M to 1.34M.
God I hope so
Admittedly due to the SEC "mess" , but last year it was not until 16th may and only slipped the to March (29th) the year before !
desperately hoping for a good last quarter as I'm not sure even Mr Bogart will get away with any more over-promising ! ( and I'm a big fan)
March it is then. Let’s hope Q4 was solid and showed conviction in case wins. It’s certainly overdue! And was envisioned to be the case by Bogart.
Surely they can’t really be expecting to win ? For me it’s just they can’t kick the habit of can kicking!
I imagine the new gov would prefer not to be wasting more money or interest accruing , roll on full year results , I’m hoping the sp recently is due to optimism re results ?
If 2nd circuit overturns Preska judgement on YPF being liable, they can then only go to the Supreme Court once again, but they don’t usually accept cases like this, didn’t last time on if this was a US court matter to decide.
This is a relatively simple case of breach of contract, under SEC and NYSE rules. The evidence is clear as day, hence the SJ in this matter.
In case the jury find that YPF is liable, that devision is alse appealable, or thats a final thing?
Thats a huge risk for Arg. YPF wouldnt be able to export normally, would have difficulties in making financial transactions abroad.
And privatisation would be impossible.
More time wasting. Don’t believe a summary judgment has been overturned before in this court. Would say it has 1% chance of being overturned.
Higher chances of YPF now proving to be liable.
More time wasting and repeated accusations. Even repeated the decision the trial should not be heard in a US court!! Wow what a joke.
Seb Maril has been quite active on X recently posting Argentina's Second Circuit Court Appeal in the United States:
twitter.com/SebastianMaril
May be of interest, from the FT, available elsewhere too.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202402200958PR_NEWS_USPRX____NY40288-1
Many thanks once again MrMarroc in that case I shall keep my fingers firmly crossed 🤞
Milei will try to push something through Congress within a month. His administration is currently negotiating with the provinces' governors so their representatives vote in favor of the modified Omnibus Bill. Milei doesn't want any surprises this time around.
I am not sure whether Article 29 will be in the modified version of the Bill, but I cannot emphasize enough the importance that this Article carries in Burford's overall intention to collect payment. We are talking about an amicable administration that, with this Article, will be able to bypass Congress and settle with all beneficiaries of court-ordered awards.
“Second try soon “ ???? Many thanks Mrmarroc
God bless you Mr Marroc .. I’m looking forward to meeting in Miami for the £20+ get together .. Early May looks good
All you should care about the Omnibus Bill is Chapter VII, Article 29: "Resolution of Domestic and International Disputes". If passed, it gives the President absolute powers to negotiate, structure, settle and pay any international dispute without going through Congress. It never had the chance to be voted. Second try soon.
Stay tuned.
Ashmore on Argentina
"Argentina: The Treasury reached an ARS 2trn primary surplus in January, the first monthly surplus excluding interest payments since 2011, a sign that the country is moving forward with its aggressive fiscal consolidation despite political challenges. Argentinian Eurobonds rallied last week after reports that Milei was considering breaking down the omnibus bill into several “digestible” bits and deepen its alliance with Macri’s Juntos por Cambio, a pragmatic turn. CPI inflation increased to 254% yoy in January, from 211% in December, slightly less than expected. In mom terms, CPI inflation fell from 25.5% to 20.6%."
GLA