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But coasty, you've banged on for literally years about how the market is growing, and boom time is here. Strange to now deny it.
I wouldn't say the online sector has been in growth since before covid, it would seem like April of this year is the first month that has beat the previous year's month.... At a quick glance on my phone that is.
Its quite clear the sector has been in decline since the covid caused spike when shops were closed.
For all we know the company revenue could now be growing and we will soon find out at the q1 update!
The figures below would dictate a blatant contraction rather than growth.
Ill await the figure spin from hex👀
Period
Value
2019 MAY 18.8
2019 JUN 18.3
2019 JUL 18.7
2019 AUG 18.1
2019 SEP 18.1
2019 OCT 19.1
2019 NOV 21.6
2019 DEC 21.4
2020 JAN 20.2
2020 FEB 19.1
2020 MAR 22.1
2020 APR 30.3
2020 MAY 32.8
2020 JUN 31.3
2020 JUL 28.3
2020 AUG 27.0
2020 SEP 26.7
2020 OCT 29.0
2020 NOV 37.2
2020 DEC 31.3
2021 JAN 37.8
2021 FEB 36.5
2021 MAR 34.4
2021 APR 30.1
2021 MAY 28.5
2021 JUN 27.9
2021 JUL 28.0
2021 AUG 27.7
2021 SEP 28.3
2021 OCT 28.9
2021 NOV 32.8
2021 DEC 30.5
2022 JAN 30.1
2022 FEB 27.9
2022 MAR 26.3
2022 APR 26.5
2022 MAY 25.7
2022 JUN 25.2
2022 JUL 24.9
2022 AUG 24.4
2022 SEP 25.2
2022 OCT 25.9
2022 NOV 29.9
2022 DEC 27.1
2023 JAN 27.3
2023 FEB 25.8
2023 MAR 26.1
2023 APR 25.8
2023 MAY 25.7
2023 JUN 25.3
2023 JUL 26.2
2023 AUG 25.3
2023 SEP 25.8
2023 OCT 26.5
2023 NOV 31.0
2023 DEC 27.9
2024 JAN 27.1
2024 FEB 25.9
2024 MAR 25.8
2024 APR 26.1
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j4mc/drsi
GMV growth will be higher than revenue growth because of Debenhams so I believe the fact they have not given a figure for the amount of GMV growth suggests to me it is very low and with them not mentioning revenue at all it suggests to me that they expect revenue itself may not grow. Clearly the analysts agree but it is all only opinion.
Of course cash can be positive without revenue growth as they are targeting the other side i.e. significant reductions in both ongoing costs and (as you mention) capex plus they won't have the same uplift in inventory that they had in establishing the US distribution centre.
You seem suddenly hung up on volume rather than revenue but I don't see what that adds in terms of encouragement as they underperformed on that as well despite keeping prices down.
I thought my post was balanced (and was aligned with BOO's and the markets expectations) - in particular in managing expectations with any revenue growth to me being a GOOD result which I will gladly recognise as such if you are right and it happens.
The outlook stated explicitly GMV growth and positive FCF this year. I don't see how they achieve both of those things without either a decent revenue or margin increase, even after a substantial drop in capex.
Looking at the year end accounts, labels accounted for just about half of the revenue drop in the first half and across the year. So it my well be, for comparative purposes label sales have dropped to a sustainable run rate. Brands accounted for half the fall in revenue in the first half but only a third axcross the year (before market place effect) So it seems there are grounds for optimism here. Increase in market place as a percentage of sales caused the remainder of the drop across the year (over 20%) and this is likely to be a bigger impact this year. So it may well be that margin improves more than revenue, although with better targeted marketing on just the brands i'd hope for both to grow.
You keep referring to a growing market. The market last year was at best flat in volume terms and only grew in value due to inflation, which Boo chose not to pass on. Whether this was a good strategic decision, poor pricing choice or a changed market dynamic remains to be seen imo. Hence first half results being important.
WRT website views, the last couple of months are the only time i can recall BOO as a group looking like a stand out performer, especially Debenhams.
"It seems strange that the analyst's are forecasting a revenue decline in a growing market based on no numbers whatsoever. Especially when the economy is improving, real wages are going up and website figures look decent"
Not perhaps when the market also grew last year but revenue still fell over 17%. The market may be growing but so is the competition with Shein muscling in, high street retailers moving more online etc. And many have been posting here for ages about how good the web stats are but it doesn't seemed to have helped sales much.
They've probably though just taken their cue from BOO's own outlook which suggests to me that they are expecting a broadly flat year on revenue.
On the positive side I don't think a year of consolidation to help sort out profitability would be a bad thing. Any growth at all I think would be a decent result but if revenues suffer another significant fall then that would really spell trouble in my view.
Exactly,
Plus labour are going to fix everything they have promised. Though they cant fix the pot hole on my road or even bother to reply to my email about it.
Depends on the revenue figures for the first half I think.
It seems strange that the analyst's are forecasting a revenue decline in a growing market based on no numbers whatsoever.
Especially when the economy is improving, real wages are going up and website figures look decent
"Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£0.35."
We are at 35p give or take 0.001p or so. Time to sell and move on?
One thing this gash English summer isnt going to inspire people to rotate their wardrobes.
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%
The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated.
2025 revenue forecast decreased from UK£1.50b to UK£1.48b.
Losses expected to increase from UK£0.027 per share to UK£0.03.
Specialty Retail industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 7.8% next year.
Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£0.35.
Share price was steady at UK£0.35 over the past week.
Fresh in from SimplyWallSt.
I do hope I've copied all the lines correctly, sergeant spunk. Wouldn't want to incur your wrath again.
Major European stock indexes traded lower in the premarket session on Thursday as the public is still digesting yesterday's German inflation data and is awaiting further reports on consumer prices from other economies, including Spain today when markets open. In addition, the European Union will update information on unemployment and consumer confidence.
At 8:00 am CET, the FTSE 100 lost 0.46%. The Euro Stoxx 50 declined by 0.40%. The DAX decreased 0.30% and the CAC 40 went 0.28% down.
The euro lost 0.10% against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, selling for $1.07901. Meanwhile, the pound traded 0.11% lower against the US currency to go for $1.26871 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AC
It's probably u anyway
They must of changed the rules then ....because it use to mean jo posting on any .....
Struggling to see the light at the end of the tunnel here. Seems to me the BOD are intent for taking every last penny out of the business for god awful performance. Really hoping SHEIN come in here for a sensible offer here ASAP. I’d snap there hands off at 75p!
I'm guessing it's down to the far reduced shorting activity Jeremy
So that's tradey, bfd, JeremyP and yourself
Going by motorbike you say, no need for a side car is there
Kpa. Hopefully for the final time. A poster can be banned from a bb but remain free to post on others. I have a ban from a bb but can post elsewhere. Daynighttroll will never post here again. Now Sam will we see as many posts from yourself when half term ends this week?
Thought he was untouchable under that username.... I would imagine admin banning him from the boohoo forum was quite the kick in the goolies.
You will never seem him post here again.
I'm looking forward to meeting all the prolific posters at the agm.... Surely they wouldn't miss that opportunity to put management straight?.
Boohoo, 2025 earnings guidance slashed by 15%.
I do hope not, 38p looks a way off
Anyone noticed for the past few weeks there aren’t any OOHs trades. Anyone give a sensible opinion on this?
Because he isn't banned, chooses not to post here.
For those in doubt, ask him!
Seems to be some missing the daily banter
I thought if u are banned u can't post on the forums so how come DT is on Glen...
That was almost as near to a reasoned debate as we get on here
Always one tho..
False and misleading information Caribbeancoasty lol.
Sure you did :-)
I thought it was quite an interesting statistic that year on year online sales for April in the USA were up 13.88 percent.... I'll run it by you next time... Are you the new Daytradenovice chat police by any chance ?