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Thanks Rosannan.
I've done well in bets in other names recentkly and so I'm ok losing even most all the 5k gbp bet I'm now back up to here.
My average is close to 5p now too.. which from - high - where it was previously is not a bad achievement.
It's all gambling and anything can happen
ps: I remember you well from the better days here. You were an excellent and very balanced poster then - I haven't really looked in here in a long time since so cant comment on more rercently - and in spite of the much abuse you received you stayed strong and consistent in your views.. and were far more right than many - many - others here.
NicetoMichu
Probably more like a 1.5p bad case scenario nowadays, but there is certainly substantial upside if the license is renewed.
i'm back incrementally small adding here - to a smallish position that I held onto from the much better old days - as I think/guess licence renewal will occur and we will find out about this in coming few weeks.
I accept it's a binary situation but its a bet I like. IF licence is renewed and with O&G commodity price cycle looking up for 2021 I feel this could go to 10p plus in q1 2021 ( versus say a 2p bad case scenario, I'll take my chances )
Maybe 2021 is going to be our year... fingers crossed
Least it looks like all things are proceeding as planned! CAnnot believe what happened here really. Divis at 15p then carnage of the oil markets and this has never recovered since.
It's been that long, I struggle to remember the find, but i think most of it is gas.
Strange RNS this morning, not sure why BLVN even need a non-exec Chairman?
Symbol1
I think that it all comes down to license renewal. We have been told that “The risk of the Etinde licence potentially expiring in January 2021 is considered low to medium at the current time.” (Annual Report 09/11)
So we should know where we stand pretty soon. A bit binary for my taste but this should move sharply north on licence renewal alone. Otherwise it’s game over and we fall back under 2p.
Hamz74
Oil, I think (and hope), but it would be great to hear from an expert.
Natural gas prices are also rising. Is oil or natural gas more relevant as a benchmark for the condensate stuff in Etinde?
You could sail an oil tanker through the spread on this. Let's hope we see a material rerate in 2021. Oil seems to be making a comeback, so that's a good start
I'm similar Symbo, although I did take a chunk out when it went from 65p to £3..............should have taken the lot in hindsight. I even averaged down a couple of years ago, that was a terrible decision. 30p average now, if I could get half of that, I'd take it
What I need is a good 150 days of rises like this to get me back to break even. Been here far too long now, all about damage limitation rather than making any money, and that’s the upside. Stopped thinking about downside, lost so much here . Been a dead cert mutibagger over ten years ago and still no definitive decision on fid, how the flock does this industry ever move forward from here.
Whole world at moment seems to be in meltdown and it’s not getting any better in the short term no matter what promises we are given.
Or leave us to fall back on the cash value. Whatever happens it won’t be boring.
seems to be the key needed to unlock this one.
https://www.investiraucameroun.com/actualites-investir-au-cameroun/0212-15663-la-reconstruction-de-la-sonara-conditionnee-par-la-restructuration-de-sa-dette-evaluee-a-plus-de-700-milliards-de-fcfa
“? The first evaluations of the research firms which took an interest in this file put the cost of the rehabilitation around 250 billion FCFA. Negotiations are already underway with technical and financial partners who have expressed their interest in the rehabilitation of this refinery. However, the finalization of these negotiations remains dependent on the restructuring of the significant debt of Sonara. The government is hard at work to complete this restructuring operation and allow the gradual amortization of this debt, ?”said Minee.
A ridiculously wide spread here and some very unusual trading patterns............a number of PMEs late in the day. It does appear there is some upward movement in SP occurring though
Wodsey -
It seems the government is keen to secure Matanda drilling - hence there's confidence that the government can use the gas (and pay for it). Thus probably giving the go ahead for building Aksa (or Limbe) power station soon.
Too, this will keep VOG solvent/profitable. Thus the pipeline infrastructure is also secured for the government.
Bowleven needs this pipeline and power station infrastructure for their Etinde gas if they are going to choose the domestic route for gas supply, rather than the LNG export route.
Matanda perhaps provides the government with another option if Etinde does go via the export route, though probably there will be sufficient capacity for both Matanda/Etinde gas. The government is keen for both to come into Cameroon as part of their plans for electricity expansion in this wider African region.
Bowleven (New Age) may well be looking at merging/buying out VOG - it seems to make a lot of sense imo e.g securing the pipeline route, adding gas fields for development.
Thanks for the info,What does that mean for bowleven?
I've put some posts on the VOG board which may be of interest (easiest to click on my name here).
https://investmentmonitor.ai/extraction/the-state-of-play-fdi-in-cameroon
Much appreciated on the below feedback happysparrow.. and very interesting to see you've dipped your toe back in SAVE That remains my biggest bet but also remains a very tricky/annoying share. I did indeed pay attention to that sale of Calabar next year news.... but I haven't seen any detail on that so far and so, for now, will sit on fence re deciding whether that's good, bad or indifferent for save...but interesting/refreshing that your instinct is it's good.
I'm big in PPC and small in Trin and agree with you that they could be range bound for a while yet ( the reason I'm small in trin now is that I actually dumped most of my holding to take some profit .. so a chance it may rally big somehow now of course :-) )
My two biggest metals resource holdings are TSG and KMR btw
As this is a blvn board I offer : If this goes back to 3's p i'd so a small top up. it may not of course.. and fine by me if it rallers into 5's p soon !
Hi, N2M; and thanks for the compliment. Paths keep crossing, so must be of like minds on most these oilers. I think you'll be OK with BLVN here, but just a question of when, and what's left for shareholders after development (there will be a placing at some stage). May pick up some shares here in the Spring. On the watchlist for now.
Meanwhile for me VOG is more of a risk/reward play that I think will play out in the next 3 to 6 months.
You'll be pleased to know I took a small punt in SAVE a few days ago, on news of new customer before xmas; but there still waiting on more clarity as to 'Trade Receivables' before I'm putting in much - so again a matter of timing - perhaps 6 months from now? Interesting article though about Calabar maybe getting sold off - that would certainly help imo.
PPC I think will be in a trading range for some time; TRIN too, unless they buy out TXP's non-Ortoire production.
On the Z's - Zoltav looks very interesting, but I think I've missed the boat on that one. Agreed, Zenith and Zephyr are 'bargepoles'.
My main holdings are TXP and JSE; and I don't think you can go wrong on either (even at these prices - check out the ADVFN boards on these two) - though I use to say that about SAVP where I was 70% invested!
VOG remains a punt, but after the good news still kept the bulk of my holding there (next news Matanda licence renewal before Dec 17th) - the CEO seems top drawer.
Also a few in GBP (licence renewal Dec 3rd - important day for them).
Hope you have some luck soon, N2M.
Fingers crossed.
I have 6 or 7 O&G legacy 'write off' holdings and look in on sundry boards from time to time and, if VO&G recently is anything to go by, am all for seeing HS involved in them !!
This one I actually have good hope for still and consider it about the best of my dog 'write off's' .. indeed to the extent of me topping up at plenty lower and not being that far off b/e here now.. so here's hoping.
PS: my absolute mongrels of the bunch are the Z brothers: Zenith and Zephyr. I dare you to find something good enough to buy into in either of those HS, please :-) Extraordinarily low Market Cap 's might make hard core gamblers want to have a flutter in either granted.. but many might say they're so low for a reason, of course and absolutely DYOR
That was the interesting discussion in the Conference Call, Hamz. Export or domestic? - BLVN do have options. I get the impression that they favour domestic; but that is dependent on the go ahead for power stations (and the Limbe fertiliser plant would also be useful). I think this largely explains the delay on FID to now 'sometime' 2021'.