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gone quiet here then, trades seem to have slowed too
You are correct. IMO.
Christoski - professional investors do not buy through 30% then wait for the Panel to knock on their door forcing them to make a mandatory offer. They will be acutely aware that if they intended to make an offer ( I don't believe they do) they would have to have the offer document ready to go BEFORE they crossed the threshold. To do otherwise is very unwise. I have worked on many offers and have had dealings with the Takeover Panel in days gone by. COC also know tha fair value is a long way north of here and north of 45p so they would have to offer upwards of 60p to secure enough acceptances. This is not done lightly so won't happen in my opinion. Notwithstanding, still keen to know who is building up this stake.
bandit1 -- Yes I understand that but I can find no information on just how quickly such an offer needs to be made, so they may be in the process of preparing an offer right now. There are howver rules about the offer and I imagine it would take several days or perhaps weeks to finalise the offer and distribute same to the other shareholders. If COC wish to continue to build further on their holdings, then now is exactly the time to pass 30%. They would have to make an offer at the value of the highest price THEY have paid in the last 12 months prior to reaching 30%. Right now that would probably be around 35p and therefore not too bad and could provide them with a considerable increase at around this price or probably a little higher, depending on if they really want to pick up more right now or just get the hurdle and mandatory offer out of the way while the price is still low. Then thay can push onwards and upwards at their leisure and suit their budget. But let's say they delay and keeep below the 30% for now. If the price rises to say 45p or higher over the coming weeks, then they are stuck at a holding below 30% or have to pay the higher price, and then be forced to offer the higher price to everyone else.as they pass through 30%.. I maintain they wil want to get that milestone out of the way now while they can make an offer at a low figure than wait for the day when it becomes restrictively expensive to do so. All my own thoughts as always and I seem to be alone in this at the moment :).
Christoski - there is no doubt that others are buying and COC have stopped short of 30%. The Takeover Code is crystal clear and the The Takeover Panel ensures that any party and/or those acting in concert must make an offer to all shareholders should they acquire more than 30% of a Plc. This rule is sacrosanct. I am interested in finding out who is buying at the moment as that may give us a clue as to what may happen next. It may simply be institutional buying as the prospect of drilling commencing later this year and the reality is dawning that the undervaluation here will not last forever.
11.7m shares traded since the last COC RNS stating they were on 29.03% needing just over 3m to reach 30%. Assuming 50% trades are buys, then just under 6m of those are buys. Therefore one of two scenarios is in play right now -- either COC are past 30% and running or there are others who are very actively buying up instead. I suspect both are true, but maybe COC have kept a lid on it as others have suggested, meaning even more acton is in progress from other parties.. Either way it promises to be a very interesting few weeks and months ahead. The rig hasn't even left Singapore yet -- bring it on :)
Closing above the 4 year high.... all the way back to 2014...
So the MM's are going home short... took everything offered..
Clearly there is market action here. Crown are biding their time until they gain enough stock to take BLVN private They know and we know that Etinde is valued in excess of �3.00 per share and even if they have to pay up to �1.00 for stock they know where BLVN is going. Lukoil is there too This will be a cash cow in years to come
Lets take a quick look at the drilling history, We drilled our first well on the prospect and found another 2 on MI5 we drilled the 2 wells on MI5 and found further 2 prospects plus the the Intra Asonga . This could be 25% of prolific oil province we are selling so lets not accept the first offer or the 45p as some are indicating.
hi chris - yes you are quite right if my memory serves me correctly just under 300mmboe (i think 280?) on a P50 "resources" not reserves basis at Etinde BLVN share 25% so 70mmboe of that 280 not sure what recovery rate we would assign to this asset - i think 30% would be conservative but safe assumptioon? so say 21mmboe recoverable net to BLVN? i dont even know what uplift they are expecting on what they would call a "successful" appraisal - could even quadruple resources to be fair, i need to look up late when back at home ............anyone know?
My opinion remains we should not consider an offer until after appraisal unless there is value for the appraisals built-in.
legachi That's the man thanks.
Blimey that is hot off the press news!!
Technical guy - Ed Willett - http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1482915674242092800/bowleven-exploration-director-willett-leaves-by-mutual-agreement.aspx
igrid No nothing that technical, I based it on what Luckoil & New Age paid for the Farm-In which i think worked out at $2 a barrel According to Hart and his Geo who's name fails me, the amplitude on the seismic of the appraisal wells was much brighter and deeper than the MI5 drills and he expected 3 Trillion cu ft of gas and the oil equivalent, he also indicated that if the appraisals were a success then the sidetrack or the 3rd well was nailed on. Of course, the recoverable resources from the appraisals cannot be calculated until all the well details are amassed.
IndridCold -- You have referred to an increase in reserves several times. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe we have any P50 or P90 reserves at this time do we -- only Contingent Reserves? I am hoping these appraisal drills will not only prove up the volume but also enable the Contingent Reserves to be upgarded to P50 and P90 Reserves.
slip when you say "successful appraisals" what does that mean, 20% uplift in reserves, 30%, 50%, 100%, 200%? is that 100p target based on a time before we farmed our interest down to 25%? i cant see it being that high, would love it, but think thats bit optimistic
Good to see the recent rise - I'm not sure of the reason - let it continue.
Back of a fag packet calc's before appraisals �0,57 Assuming successful appraisals �1.00 The above conservative estimates based geo's prospective recourse estimates going back to the previous BOD.
yes legache, but they could wait a little longer and take more money and run! - they are numbers men and will know that an appraisal well has a greater chance of success than a greater chance of failure - so they will bet on that accordingly the CEO also pretty much said this in his recent interview plus the drills are fully carried, its like having someone else paying for your horse racing bet for the odds on favourite and then running off before you even have a chance to see if you could have won! i have said numerous times these guys are not oil men, they will sell eventually, but i see no logic selling before the drills unless an offer comes in simply too good to refuse, but no one is willing to do that at the moment as oil price is so volatile and who knows what will happen with shale and what saudi will do - no one will over pay or pay based on "potential" anymore, buyers want cold hard reserve numbers they can price accurately
Getting interesting, coiled spring might not be so far of the mark lol ! gla
Why sell? Because they can take the money and run? These chaps are not oil men. They have little interest and knowledge of the asset they own. Yes, they could make more money by holding til post appraisal, but there is a risk involved with drilling high pressured condensate reservoirs! They could bag millions for 18 months work. All they had to do was a bit of sacking and some clever investing. Cash back, kerching! My money is on a sale.
Maybe you right.. we must remember that Hart always said the value of Etinde was �1.15 to sell, so maybe we are looking at the wrong game... getting excited on this move.. maybe the bigger picture is the prize..
i doubt it today, still a possibility, just not probable IMO oil is through $68 though, so as long as that holds steady or increases up to drill results - that sale price will only increase i really dont understand why some think COC would sell before drill results. we have a free carry and they are appraisal drills so have a high COS - essentially its an odds on bet that its just upside to reserve numbers, so why base a sale on todays oil price and reserve numbers when they are both likely to increase over the medium to long term the CEO also said that was the strategy in the recent article