Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Some may refer to it as "sitting on the fence" one thing's for certain is the fact that, something big is about to happen !
1. Fed about to pull the rug beneath (Next Monday) JP,GS and Morgans have already spoke up and said they can not operate without the bank term funding program. Which will crush the Community Banks over there.
JP and Morgan's have warned smaller ones won't stand a chance.
Just look at New York Community Bank, has been hit for 80% since last year and took one heck of a slap only yesterday for 23% !
2. Price of Gold is just not stopping an literally hundreds of billions been flowing into both Gold and Crypto recently.
3. Lots of people gage market pre markets moves like Nas' offset against "Bookings" which has dropped off by 20% recently, usually a giveaway signal that something is about to happen.
Without trying to sound like the "The world is nigh" lol all I'm trying to put over is that ive seen these signals too many times in the past, thats all.
Current data is telling me that the big boys, are about to pull retailers pants down and stand there pointing and laughing.
It's clear as writing on the wall that someone is about to use retail as exit liquidity and rushing to do it, because its been done brash and blatant.
Look out and take notice the next pull back retail will go "all in" and appears to me the big boys will be selling to them.
Which is where I usually lay in wait, let's see what occurs after Monday when the FED pull the plug over there.
Retail will get holding the bag and the wise will wait to buy back at a steep discount.
If I knew what was going on id share it, truth is I haven't got a crystal ball.
Just charts, data and a few grey hairs of experience.
As for Barclays, we are listed as a UK Bank over the pond and hopefully won't get caught up in the bun fight too much.
We could either be seeing this recent 200 DMA clearance as support and a nice pick up from here (as we cleared it nicely) unless we see Barclays chip up and remove 190 / 200 in the near future, the path of least resistance is clearly down again.
Not all "half glass full " as we have been undervalued for a long while now and any hardship to the US Banks will only give us European and UK Banks a more level playing field in years to come. It's just a matter of seeing how it plays out on us in the short term. Maybe when the knee's rattle on the US biggies, investors might pile into undervalued Barclays lol.
Mr A and a few others are keeping some powder dry.
Ending on a positive note, we have cleared our ole friend. Without getting jumped on, next major player before we can all stop praying is +190.
Though it's critical we stay above the 200 DMA, least we have twice the buyback cushion this year, so if we do take shrapnel, it won't cause too much damage.
Interesting to see how this pans out this quarter.
Anyhow Honky Tonks, wish everyone well, im off.
Regards W'
I think a lot of that was exercise by staff of options under share save schemes. But it is a good point you make. Barclays should be satisfying share awards to employees from shares it buys in the market which it is entitled to do. It gets tax relief when shares are issued to employees based on the actual value of the shares over the amounts paid for the shares by employees and also reflects that difference in its profits. I don't know why it doesn't do this other perhaps that it allows it to exaggerate the amount of its buyback because clearly only the net reduction in shares overall is relevant to shareholders.
Qatar Investment Authority, the company that has the 0.5% short also owns 2.7% of Barclays shares, so it’s more of a hedge than a short.
So another reason for shorters to start.
Lower profit & a bigger buy back however more shares allocated.
We will have to wait and see.
I just checked my record on spreadsheet. When Barclay completed buyback on Oct 24, 2023, the remaining total floating shares were: 15,073,890,051 shares. Compared to Before last round buybacks, the share count reduced by 3.114%.
When this round of buyback starts, the total share counts started at 15,182,822,584 shares. There is a net increase of 108,932,533 shares. This equivalents to 1172 shares per employee in 1 quarter. Any body has an idea, why the bank is so generous to use shareholder money to fat their own wallet? In percentage, this 1 quarter stock dilution has cost 22% of last round buybacks. Since we only have two buybacks a year and employees have 4 Q of compensation, does this mean 44% buyback would drop to the black hole of stock based compensation?
Barclays got to this price February 2023 then dropped so that's probably the reason for shorts opening.
There could be some profit taking now after they are trading ex dividend .
They dropped to around £1.40 last year.
Have to wait & see.
If you sell on ex divi day then the seller retains the dividend. The buyer does not get the dividend hence why the share price normally drops by the dividend amount. So in reality seller gets lower price and the dividend and the buyer gets a lower price. Pasta is quite correct. Rgds, S
Taverham
> Pasta, if you sell on ex divi day you will sell ex divi and not get it.
This is 100% wrong. If you sold on ex div, seller gets dividend. Stop confusing others.
Im glad I waited now, 4% up today is lovely. I might wait one more day....
You get the dividend!!!!!!!! If you sell on the ex dividend date.
The ex-dividend date of a stock is the day on which the stock begins trading without the subsequent dividend value. Investors who purchase stock before the ex-dividend date are entitled to the next dividend payment while those who purchase stock on or after the ex-dividend date are not.
Just remember - Ex divi means excluding the next divi.
Rgds, S
I'm not certain that's correct. I thought if you sold on ex date you sold ex div and therefore did receive the dividend.
Pasta, if you sell on ex divi day you will sell ex divi and not get it.
3.87% up
Worried, only if your the holder of the short.
They did open a 0.5% short. Is this something to be worried about?
> If I sell today, will I still receive the dividend? Or do I need to wait til tomorrow to sell? The 5 point expected drop has virtually recovered as of writing this at 2.20pm and that is confusing me.
Yes, on ex-div day; you can sell and still get dividend.
Brave
Please read my post at 20.25 yesterday and Rats, also my other posts regarding this matter. It explains why people are confused.
If I sell today, will I still receive the dividend? Or do I need to wait til tomorrow to sell? The 5 point expected drop has virtually recovered as of writing this at 2.20pm and that is confusing me.
Main reason is that the Company are not in control of buying decisions - it's a merchant bank (JP Morgan in this case) making the trading decisions based on the LSE guidelines and company's resolution that allows the buyback. I imagine it's a LSE/PRA/FCA rule meaning trading decisions need to be arm's length.
Secondary to this is it would make not effective difference. In a perfect market with no external factors, the SP would drop by the amount of the dividend on ex-div day then rise slowly towards the next ex-div day.
Of course, that never actually happens in reality as there are are multitude of other factors in play (general market sentiment, sector sentiment, wars, GDP figures, issuing too many bonds in US! ......, the list is almost endless).
Thats also the reason the SP doesn't increase automatically in line with the buybacks. In theory, if they bought-back 1% of the issued shares in a day, the SP would rise by 1% (to keep the yield and EPS he same) over that day, but it's the other factors that mean it will almost certainly never happen exactly in line with the buyback.
Yes Barclays has always been a good investment but like any bank the biggest worry is the grim reaper the FCA. In the trade we called them the FuCuArs. That word is made up with three words, two ending with ing and the last hole 😊
Barcs were the first share i bought in 2008 when i had a pay out from a unit trust plan i took out as a teenager, £12.5k, i paid two and six (12.5p) per month for it, with that money i bought Barcs shares and started my interest in trading shares, i have an affection for Barcs.
Why did Barclays buy shares yesterday when they could have purchased today after the ex dividend was deducted from the share price. They would have paid a lot less for them today. Cannot work that one out.
Roddle1
you've done the right thing holding mate.... dont join the "quick buck brigade"
these shares are still undervalued... hang firm for the uplift. x