The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
@ JayK / Good morning sir, "to be sure, to be sure" as the saying goes.
In no way did I read it as any other way than it was meant sir.
A very wealthy currency trader once said to me "Never pay any attention to anything anyone posts on them forums!" which was a very true statement.
Only trust the person in the mirror.
Have to say when it comes to Barclays, ole Mr A's just about got it sussed to a T these days.
Barclays isn't rocket science to trade, its more of self control and not suffering from fomo (which we all have at some stage) Barclays is like an oil tanker and takes times to turn, it can take on ballast really fast, though weeks if not months to unload it all.
If venkat and Nige don't show improvement this Q result s we will lag once again.
The optimist in me would love to see a 2 in front once again, though the realist tells me we need to see the proof in the pudding first.
If Hunt thnks allowing another 5k on the ISA brigade is going to launch UK bank shares, quite frankly he's delusional.
Once everyone's topped up their allowance, the divis paid out, the average Joe retailer loses interest.
Which leaves us institutional's and I'm not hearing much confidence until we read the next print.
It will be a different kettle of fish, when rates settle back and the basics start returning decent income.
Though I'm sick of waiting for next years carrots.
Just waiting for the US to start to stir and took a gander on here, you have a great week and be lucky.
Regards W'
@ JayK - Hey there, hope all is well and good in your camp chap. Great input below, couldn't have put it better myself.
Firstly, thank you for the "human" clarification lol, someone didi ask if I was a Ai Bot a while back, did make me chuckle.
Least my trade performance impressed someone enough to question the fact if I had fur.
As you know from my contributions, one tries to share the "non obvious" and I know from few heavy hitters around me, what mine and their concerns are. Be it that week or month, some trying to set up the next Q's even.
At the end of the day "it gets dark " and we're all in vested in this one thing and it aint charity or wasting / paying Hunt more stamp duty.
Wishing you and others a wonderful weekend, away now myself.
Regards W'
Federal Reserve Board announces the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11
The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11. The program will continue to make loans until that time and is available as an additional source of liquidity for eligible institutions.
During a period of stress last spring, the Bank Term Funding Program helped assure the stability of the banking system and provide support for the economy. After March 11, banks and other depository institutions will continue to have ready access to the discount window to meet liquidity needs.
As the program ends, the interest rate applicable to new BTFP loans has been adjusted such that the rate on new loans extended from now through program expiration will be no lower than the interest rate on reserve balances in effect on the day the loan is made. This rate adjustment ensures that the BTFP continues to support the goals of the program in the current interest rate environment. This change is effective immediately. All other terms of the program are unchanged.
Things could get funky !
Some may refer to it as "sitting on the fence" one thing's for certain is the fact that, something big is about to happen !
1. Fed about to pull the rug beneath (Next Monday) JP,GS and Morgans have already spoke up and said they can not operate without the bank term funding program. Which will crush the Community Banks over there.
JP and Morgan's have warned smaller ones won't stand a chance.
Just look at New York Community Bank, has been hit for 80% since last year and took one heck of a slap only yesterday for 23% !
2. Price of Gold is just not stopping an literally hundreds of billions been flowing into both Gold and Crypto recently.
3. Lots of people gage market pre markets moves like Nas' offset against "Bookings" which has dropped off by 20% recently, usually a giveaway signal that something is about to happen.
Without trying to sound like the "The world is nigh" lol all I'm trying to put over is that ive seen these signals too many times in the past, thats all.
Current data is telling me that the big boys, are about to pull retailers pants down and stand there pointing and laughing.
It's clear as writing on the wall that someone is about to use retail as exit liquidity and rushing to do it, because its been done brash and blatant.
Look out and take notice the next pull back retail will go "all in" and appears to me the big boys will be selling to them.
Which is where I usually lay in wait, let's see what occurs after Monday when the FED pull the plug over there.
Retail will get holding the bag and the wise will wait to buy back at a steep discount.
If I knew what was going on id share it, truth is I haven't got a crystal ball.
Just charts, data and a few grey hairs of experience.
As for Barclays, we are listed as a UK Bank over the pond and hopefully won't get caught up in the bun fight too much.
We could either be seeing this recent 200 DMA clearance as support and a nice pick up from here (as we cleared it nicely) unless we see Barclays chip up and remove 190 / 200 in the near future, the path of least resistance is clearly down again.
Not all "half glass full " as we have been undervalued for a long while now and any hardship to the US Banks will only give us European and UK Banks a more level playing field in years to come. It's just a matter of seeing how it plays out on us in the short term. Maybe when the knee's rattle on the US biggies, investors might pile into undervalued Barclays lol.
Mr A and a few others are keeping some powder dry.
Ending on a positive note, we have cleared our ole friend. Without getting jumped on, next major player before we can all stop praying is +190.
Though it's critical we stay above the 200 DMA, least we have twice the buyback cushion this year, so if we do take shrapnel, it won't cause too much damage.
Interesting to see how this pans out this quarter.
Anyhow Honky Tonks, wish everyone well, im off.
Regards W'
Don't beat yourselves up over a few potential pips, it was a wise move considering past performance.
Yesterday's volume buy from Golds (buying back) hardly touched the sides, the thing is there was a lot of momentum (which I like to disguise myself amongst) though fairplay to them, least they timed it right on the button of yesterday's low.
Back in the old days it was a matter of pushing the calculator to get any kind of idea of a drop off.
These days the software / bots eat trades up on average of 4/500 a second, Joe Average hasn't got a Scooby Doo.
Take the typical retail trader, you can spend 4hrs / 4 days researching a trade, only to find out the big boys went against the same position a week earlier.
Take both previous year end final reports, it was the usual scenario "let's have a drink later mate" young fund managers and sniff have always gone hand in hand.
Hence the phrase "Sell the news" by the time the news is dropped, half a dozen floor rats have spilled their guts weeks earlier, in some wine bar after work.
Sad fact, though always the case !
Personally I would not like to hold through a dividend on the likes of Barclays, unless I had plenty of wiggle room when it adjusts, take past finals out of the question and evaluate this year.
1. Treasury Bonds doing better atm
2. IB should start picking a moderate return by end of March / April
3. The buybacks only previously cushioned 50% of the actual drop offs (momentum / volume ) hence difficult to suss exact target areas.
4. This quarter Q1 looks very muddy atm, the real money that chips us up, will only be trickled charged until we see a strong return on the next results, Feb / March are always a drain on our SP as there is nothing to offer, that makes much of a difference. The smoke and mirror buyback bonanza wont prop us up with support !
Unless the background market starts printing good news, "Green shoots" is what we need to start hearing.
5. One thing is for certain and I trust it 110% . . the charts clearly show one more 'clear out' before interest rates are able to balance back and allow some predicted clarity.
So the big question is, we have just slashed through a serious milestone (our old friend 200 ma) will this act as support, with retail interest and a few fund managers adding to their holdings or will we just fall back to test ground until clarity over the next quarter ?
Everyone else free to add their opinions, thats whats this is all about at the end of the day.
Not giving advice in any way, you only need to look at Monthly, Weekly, Daily trends and R&S keys ares, it's not rocket science.
Add in the fact we have been in consolation range the past 24 months, it certainly looks far, far better for us all.
174's looking sticky.
Lastly with the utmost respect and empathy to anyone sat on +£3 averages, there is still ground to cover sadly.
GLA
Morning Mr A' & all
Despite your very informative post, one forgot to add - those who have invested via Dumb investor, may wish to wait until someone in the back office can be even ar$3d, to transfer the div funds into its own customer accounts !
Maybe they might trickle a few accounts over by Friday 5th April or even Monday the 8th , who knows ?
Interested to see who posts the usual questions "Anyone know the dividend dates /amounts?" without taking the trouble to even read below or click on the (very easy to direct) information links above lol.
If we reset the clock, who's going to claim the title for this years annually, most anticipated question?
@ 3LittleBirds - Ar ha ! something in common there sir, even I have sported a donkey jacket in my younger years and traded it for a pin stripe whistle.
We must have looked like cast member out of L.A lol
These days I prefer to fit in with a prison style blue shirt, nice jeans and decent boots.
Mind you i did notice a old school pit jacket being sported in Euston Station few years back, all the tags over it, he looked like a proper Charlie, really made me cringe.
Anyhow, back on track, half glass full and all that, hoping this was a breather, and not hindered a tad more leg room until Friday arvo.
Away now as the Dow is not playing fair today.
GLA
Firstly, well done and fair play to everyone banking a profit here.
Paws crossed for those waiting for it all to fall in place.
Mr A' just opened that link touché . . . scored a point back, as I nearly swallowed my brew the wrong way.
The 'side stepping' destroyed me lol.
@ JayK - start'em young chap, the only way, lord knows what my lads teacher's thought I did, as they used to call it 'Ups and Downs" try explaining that one without sounding like a parent suffering from Bipolar.
Nice to see a few familiar names popping up below, trust you are all well and in good spirits, it's not always that Barcs gets to claim some spotlight.
Few of us have had over 16 yrs chasing that carrott, certainly not waiting until 2026 to see if they succeed or fail on the current agender. Uk banks never regained returns from the capital/equity markets like we expected.
Instead Barcs BoD's still ploughed all their hope in returning to the strength they once were, which has been like listening to a retired 'puchie' boxer. The sort who live on the memory of "I could have been a contender"
All Barclays have done is waste money trying to tweak a failing rig all these years, with low rates and ECB flooding the capital markets , surely someone running a bank would add up the fact that the returns were only ever going to be little anyhow.As I have previously posted, once the FED clip the US banks wings , it should also help Barclays gain some ground over there at last.
We should see some benefits start to show after Q1 reporting with regards to income from deal making.
What Venkat is hoping to achieve in my opinion, will be quite a tall order.
1. Reducing capital base and suffer no blunders ( the latter I have less faith in quite frankly) time will tell.
2. Make good on the buybacks and returns to shareholders.
3. reduce costings from 67% down to 63% maybe if they didn't "show pony" Churchill Place it would help.
Considering our competitors manage to work below 50% !
4. Targeting ROTC around 12% by 2026 from the current 10.3% (which we are sick of hearing each year!) again seems like we have heard it all before.
IMO opinion I can only see any of this being achieved if the BoD's start respecting the shareholders, because all they have been doing is diluting the banks share price all these years, whilst just kicking the can until their pay awards cleared.
We are at a crucial stage atm, rates up and the markets are all adjusted to this new norm' there is lots of powder kept dry in the financials, we have all the right ingredients to make a decent meal, we just need to sack few thousands 2nd chef's.
All in all if we must have decent reports or the cracks will open up again.
Regards W'
@ Mr A' - Aye what a day !
Rarely would I be sat in front of my screens this long in the day, unless there's some momentum in the mix.
We had the "Pie Man" waffling earlier, lucky for me I was I long GBP/JPY & GBP/NZD, hence sat in what's been a very long day.
Things got a bit twitchy mid arvo and others new to leave me alone (my headphones went on with some Chaz an Dave) just to drown out background.
For which I sat smiling as the first track was Rabbit, whilst my screens were screaming for attention.
You spoil Mrs A with posh cruises, Mrs W can count herself lucky, double bonus if it's not raining on the day.
She tapped me up for a fur coat once, not sure she was that impressed when she unwrapped a 'Donkey Jacket' lol
Any how, like ya good self Im about to join the ole Avanti West Coasters myself in a few minutes.
Think I might take Mrs W out for a 'Bernie Inn" 2 for £10 meal deal later if she's in a good mood (she's still irritated from her valentines day gift) . . . Don't ask.
Kindest Regards
Mr W'
Hopefully if and when the FED's target the US Banks it will / should level us up, we deserve a level playing field over there.
Barclays have had them (as bond would say ) "pishing" in our pockets since 2008 and telling us its raining !
Gwhizz - Yes, few of us have "been here before" as they say.
The truth will show though by Friday.
By then we will see if this is being taken seriously enough or just retail hope and carrot and dividend.
@ Mr A' - If your having a read through, hope your well and good.
Do not fear of missing out, keep that powder dry sir, no clarification of strength just yet.
Cut though our ole friend the 200 like melted butter.
My Jan 9th "160 around results" fell nicely, looked a tad off target last week though, few twitching whiskers in my den if Im honest.
Looking forward to the water settling next week, hopefully get a clearer picture then.
Regards W
Snippet from 9th Jan post
"The BoD best pull a golden rabbit out the hat in Feb or its the last year I'm going to be invested !
Back on track, chart is looking good, 160 is the key area on the weekly, with our ole friend / foe the 200.
As previously posted I can not see anything remarkable happening until clarification, so I'll be shorting every opportunity when daily momentum drops off"
Do they take us for fools or what ?
See this pattern far too often now, its actually jokeable.
Having sat and discussed Barclays over a few drinks Sunday evening, few of us hardly raised an eyebrow this morning.
In fact at first it was a case of bemusement, after 2 decent coffees a case of "well maybe, bit of potential" followed by 'Well there's a lot of straws and they're all being clenched" so it's now arvo GMT and no ones really showed any excitement, apart from a deliberate trickle earning someone an easy +10% this past 3 sessions !
Flitting thru a few previous comments, the comment about Black Rock is very true and still makes me wince.
Selling off BC was like Jack giving his mum the Golden Goose and expecting a full roast and trimmings.
Don't get me wrong it's great getting tucked into a bit of momentum every now and then, though we are discussing Barclays here, not the Barclays some of us can remember.
One thing I can say about this today's announcement is that Venk is, (excuse the pun) banking on this years 2nd & 3rd quarter to show better returns out of the IB arm or he'll get some real stick for it, if it doesn't !
The 5.3p div was the predicted min allocated, which shows contempt and weakness from Barclays BoD's.
Even 5.5p would have shown effort, though waving the buy back carrot will encourage newbies.
Where Ill be dropping the soap in front of them every chance I get from now until May /June.
Must dash as the US about to come though and my Barcs screen is alerting me to take profits, so I need to cash in and book Mrs W a surprise cruise (up the Grand Union Canal) very classy is Mrs W.
GLA
This would be the slingshot Barcs have needed since 2008.
U.S. banks could lose up to $35 billion in revenues in 2025 under current proposals for new capital rules that could "relevel the playing field" for European lenders, a study showed on Thursday.
The 'Basel III Endgame' standards, the final leg of international bank capital rules that followed the global financial crisis, could impact U.S. banks disproportionately, according to consultancy firm Oliver Wyman.
Each country decides how it will apply the globally agreed Basel rules, leading to some differences in practice, and current proposed U.S. rules are more punitive than European proposals in how market, credit, and operational risk capital are calculated, it added.
European lenders could gain about half the revenue lost by their U.S. peers from next year, with non-bank financial firms such as private credit funds and non-bank liquidity providers winning the rest, the study said, adding that European wholesale banking revenue totalled $195 billion in 2023.
The Federal Reserve is considering possible adjustments to the rules, due to be introduced mid-2025, after U.S. banks warned that they risked causing lenders to curtail lending.
While Oliver Wyman expects changes to the current rules, it said that in the current form Basel III "could largely close the return gap between US and European banks, re levelling the playing field for Europeans."
"It presents an interesting change in direction and an opportunity for European banks," partner Ronan O'Kelly told Reuters.
European banks have lost market share to more profitable U.S. banks since the 2008-09 financial crisis, with investment banking league tables dominated by the Wall Street giants.
European lenders Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Barclays, BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY), Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) and UBS have seen their share of capital markets business shrink to 35% in 2022 from 41% in 2012, against U.S. firms JP Morgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, Oliver Wyman found.
But Europeans' share could rise 10 percentage points after Basel III rules are adopted, it said.
Morgan Stanley, which contributed to the research, was excluded from the numbers.
Basel III rules agreed include stricter capital, leverage and liquidity requirements for big banks and aim to boost financial stability.
The current U.S. rules are likely to result in a 35% increase in so-called risk-weighted assets (RWA) for U.S. banks globally and international banks' U.S. subsidiaries, compared with 15% for European banks, Oliver Wyman said.
Risk-weighted assets measure how much capital banks need to hold against the risks they are taking.
"Rock on Tommy!" only if though, cant see the big boys liking that much.
knowing the US system I won't be holding my breath either.
That's me done Honky Tonks, Elvis has left the chip shop.
GLA
Our ole friend is currently just 2 points above.
This appears to be the attempt that should bite though time.
As most on here are aware, its best to dump the tea leaf (charts) reading around pre finals and divs and concentrate on market opinion and consequential data.
Eg; The FTSE100 making its yearly triangle, the German chamber of commerce warning of a 20 yr slump ( fact the DAX looks like it has a potential +10% upside left in the tank) whilst every retailer has FOMO and shorts the DAX lol.
14 to 1 shorting the indi's atm.
Which tells me to stay long.
Since post L.Bro's we have spent the last 16 years ! watching the US banks hammer us into the ground (due to our ring fencing and tax levies) now if they the US FED's tugged the US banks collars a touch, we Barc's would gain some ground.
This of course is only me sharing my opinion and not ramping on, though imagine the US retail interest we would gain back, if the likes of JPM and Golds were about to have their feathers trimmed !
Cannot stress enough how important next Tuesday's waffle is going to be focussed on.
just hope Higgins has paid attention this time, because he was confident that he was 'The kiddie" last time we exchanged opinions, where he was reminded he 'wasn't in favour" something he denied.
As they say "The proof is always in the pudding" its cost us shareholders another 12 months of incompetence.
Tuesday we need to see a genuine, sincere dividend forecast, buy backs at this level and CLEAR concise prediction of forecasts, if not we may as well all cash out and buy into the likes of Greggs etc.
Always DYOR
GLA
Morning Badprophet - "Don't get me started on Brown" either.
What an absolute 24 ct Willy Wonker !
Quote from our late beloved Lizzie "I gather not all these bars belong to us" a majestic qiup made to Osborne when she was visiting the BoE vaults , referencing the previous chancellor having sold off most of our gold reserve at a 20 yr low !
That blunder alone lost 9 billion !
Anyhow must dash.
Regards W'
Morning Mr A - can't beat a bit of reminiscing, aye.
Think that kid actually fronted a record back then.
Mind you we can't knock kids dressing up and making records, look where it got Simon Cowell, he called himself Zak Powell, The Wonder Dog. Which was his tv debut (not as a contestant on Sale Of The Century ) which he likes everyone to believe. Yeah its cringey, real cringe material.
That link / post made me think of a painful game of eyespy I was playing only last week, with a 4 yr old family member.
Literally for what seemed eternity (least 10 minutes) there I was naming everything under the sun, that started with a W.
Only to have a giggling voice pointing to a roof but saying 'Woof silly" which brought home the reason you do not engage with a 4yr playing eyespy.
Back on track, bit of a quiet Morning over all, can not see Barclays gaining much interest until they start stirring over the pond. Without repeating myself, we have our ole friend to cut though.
Will stick my nose back in, once we see some momentum.
Regards W'
@ jedi614 - wow, might need to try that myself, does my nut in when trying to scroll down to read people's input.
Ads on the sideline, all good, though do we really need to have these pops up jumping messages aside all the time.
So annoying, thanks for the share / post.
Have a great weekend J & all
Quick quote from an article from This Is Money earlier today . . . "Nonetheless, the managers of Temple Bar Investment Trust, Nick Purves and Ian Lance, remain bullish on the case for UK big banks and believe they still make good investments.
The pair back two of the UK's biggest banks, Barclays and NatWest, which they see as seriously undervalued"
Nice to see a few bods are taking this seriously at last.
If we get some solid projections out of this coming report, we then have the rates dropping back a tad 2nd Q' which will no doubt attract income related trusts and funds attention, at last.
@ Mr A' - Well done on the 10% chap, only profit when banked aye.
Seeing the drop yesterday though I was laid in wait for the Dow (3 /6 mth Bond reactions) played out nicely in fact.
Barcs alerts flashed up and I had a punt off the drop, the 15 minutes was screaming out, cleared 2.5% profit.
We usually agree on most Barc related stuff, though if i'm honest I did think you had a bit left in the tank, though hay ho, you still did well out of it.
Just hoping this budgie has legs next week and lifts us through our ole friend the 200.
If not, i'm in for an ear burning off mrs Wolf as we'll no doubt lose our deposit on the 2 bed caravan down Jaywick this summer, so I wondered if she might be able to tag along with you and Mr A' she likes a cruise does Mrs W' once took her on a canal trip for half hour up the Grand Union.
Mrs Wolf becomes really pleasant this time fo the year, usually the start of March, she's sneaking and I'm sure she has dividend dates in her diary.
If we don't get 5.25 - 6p div this time round only cruise Mrs W' will get, is down the Thames on a river boat lol.
Anyhow, just a quick in and out to reply and to say I much preferred watching Sally James pointing to camera (without using her hands) on a Sat mornings when Chris and Lenny kept throwing water over her t shirt, as Noel's SS was boring in comparison.
No one could knock the late Mike reads voice saying "Runaround" or Stewpot calling out "Its Friday, so it's Crackerjack!"
On that note "Have a cruchy" enjoy your weekend.
Regards W'
Good afternoon Mr A - Wow that link knocked me back a few decades !
My late Grandfather bought me that (45 vinyl) as a kid (showing my age now lol) that along with Tunnocks Milk Chocolate Caramel bars, whilst telling me in a Jordy accent "Never trust banks son" are but a few fond memories I have of him.
Guess many others on here will glance, close and think wtf are them two on about ?
Though that link / clip just set a pleasant, somber moment with happy reminiscent memories.
Thank you for sharing it sir.
Back to task, just a polite reply as Im only in an out as my concentrations on more liquid stock atm.
Yes, wise move to lock in your TP of 10%, which you know is always the sensible option.
I'm currently waiting for this 200 to slice though.
As many are aware Barcs is a very manipulated stock, it only takes half a dozen friends (associates) to move either direction and make serious dollars.
The only thing is people like us spot their moves far, far easier now the divi season is dropped back to two a year.
Which is not good for the SP whilst Barcs and other uk financials are losing ground.
Unless Riski and Shunt back off legislation and taxes, even more and more business will list over the pond.
Like every a creature of habit I can see Barcs having some retail lift into the divi, then the usual quick test to our ole friend.
With a slight dwindle and then like always x2 or 3 wave cut and run, leaving some poor soles sitting on their hands.
This area is crucial atm, we will either gain some real interest over 6 to 8 weeks from the year end waffle, if not we will see heavy weight on our shoulders,.
Which I will sound like a parrot saying this, though this time of the year is really all about watching momentum, not just charting.
Only hope we have a very productive statement next month, we will see this as support.
Though if Higgins waffles and offers a poxy 5.25 divi with a monkey for a buy back, we will see this dwindle down.
Personally I would like to see 6p offered up, as and when rates fall back a touch 6p will appeal to the shrewd.
As for buy backs, we need to see a 1 in front, offering a monkey doesn't touch the sides.
We need some impressive projections and quite frankly, with past performance . . . I'm not holding my breath !
Let's see how much this takes to rise though this key level.
Anyhow must dash, US is waking up.
Regards W'