Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The chart looks!
Waiting for next company update.
$300m nav originally quoted at $170m net available proceeds
If only $65m net available proceeds, and ignoring millions that will likely be used to pay debt down, $300m - $105m = £150m NAV.
£150m nav available to write down some asset values.
Plus $30m JV sale which we were told made the JV transaction profitable from the original $7m invested.
Let’s see the numbers, and why the majority of holders have held from £1-2,
2p is par value, any refinance below requires a restructuring, any raise requires shareholder vote.
Adding another 100k under 2p looks incredibly bargain basement. Anyone selling at these levels will regret it once the sale is done. It's impossible to buy large chunks!
News of the sale is due soon. In my view the recent appointments were very positive and the current market value is daft. I have invested here because I see potential for a significant rise in the value of my investment.
The same as I saw it when I invested and added at 2p
Laura
How do you see this!
Chart looks terrible now
It’s going to be tight no doubt, lots of the remaining net asset value will be tied up in collateral which will be secured against the debt, and will be released over time to pay down said debts.
the plan was to use 50m of the asset sale proceeds as working capital, this is in addition to the net available cash proceeds of $65-110m.
Again at 5-7% interest plus libour - 10-12% debt, the company will be better off paying down as much debt as possible, or atleast hedge these costs by depositing the cash in short term government bills at 5+% which would give them access to the capital if required leaving the 6% interest difference as a fee for this ability, which is cheap compared to tapping the market again at later date.
Just a matter of balancing the books as well as possible, and potentially selling the remaining book if an opportunistic sale comes which would leave the deleveraged company running off its fee based model, and that’s where the actual time and work will be needed, they will have to earn their living, not rely on deposits.
Also it clearly ststate'ONGÒING COMMITTMENTS"
Following closing of the Sale, the Board still intends to use the Available Net Cash Proceeds to facilitate a de-leveraging of R&Q while retaining liquidity and working capital for R&Q's ongoing commitments
Took opposite view and cut a quick loss 20 odd %.
Did not like the after hours rns and the diminished net proceeds. Saw the risk had changed.
SP might still do something but the chance of zero went up too high for me.
Good luck all, still hope you get paid.
Topped up - gla
We need to break 3p as that has been the major resistance. Next news incoming. fill your boots!
That’s the important bit “Its virtually insolvent” and it’s priced as this currently.
aslong as is still solvent then there is equity for shareholders, if they keep the company going I do expect a restructuring and open offer to fund going forward securely and let’s face it 5-6% + libor is not cost effective debt to have on any book, when you can raise equity and return that interest to shareholders instead.
Re-reading the recent RNS, Sale of Accredited in Q2 - so anytime from now until June
They say that the Legacy Plan outlined in the December Circular RNS remains achievable (although may take longer to fully implement)
and this from the Circular:
The non-life legacy market is significant and growing, with total global reserves estimated at $960 billion in 2022, an increase of $96 billion from the previous year1. R&Q has a strong pipeline, with identified transactions comprising over $850 million of reserves, including three deals in advanced stages with in aggregate over $100 million of reserves. Going forward, R&Q will continue to focus on transactions in the small to medium size range, where competition is less intense, and to offer compelling finality solutions for corporates in the US, UK and Europe. This follows R&Q's landmark deal earlier in 2023 to invest alongside Obra Capital, Inc. to acquire and professionally manage the non-insurance legacy liabilities of MSA Safety Inc. This strategy, alongside Gibson Re, will generate fees from two distinct but complementary pools of liabilities: traditional insurance reserves and corporate non-insurance liabilities.
This company at its half year report had debts of $333 mill in addition it had letters of credit obligations on legacy asstes of $188 mill. Its virtually insolvent
Imo I don’t expect the price to remain at these low levels - been in my watchlist since February was tempted @ 7p plus then and it must be galling for the good people who were buying this time last year when it was over 70p - it looks like we get several RNS’s a month average also - gla
It's all about taking a position, and next week is going to be big, in my humble opinion.
I think we need to take emotions out of it.
It’s been a terrible hold for shareholders
But from this market cap it’s a screaming buy
Remember this is all going to be completed in Q2.
The company will have minimum 8X more money than market cap
Maybe upto 15x more money than market cap
Its a screaming buy
I tried outlaying a scenario on Twitter, with a picture of prior numbers the company gave, under company # last night, if you see it you may kinda get what I’m thinking.
$105m doesn’t just vanish, $15m more on top of the $15 allocated originally for closing costs maybe, but of extra interest maybe, but not $105m.
Very clear summary itsagame
Pure speculation and Impossible to tell without the current numbers, but I’ve been Looking again and again at old estimates given and numbers in rns since, I’m thinking they might end up something like this:
with $150m debt ( RQ pay $50m more off from original $200m quoted estimates)
rq left with $50m cash for working capital
and around $200m nav left,
Maybe the wiggle room lenders have given is another $50m.
This way the company has around that 150% assets to debt. Once adding on the other sales.
If numbers are worse then it’s a sale of assets or recapitalisation to fund an ongoing business, maybe by open offer and that’s why the large existing holder have not sold.
I just want to see the real numbers going forward so everyone knows where they actually stand.
Glad I bought more at 2p
Now 2.34p to 2 49p
This will go back up to double digits soon. The last 6+ months this has been on the down curve. A company with over 50% owned by institutions. Even if they have taken a short to make up the losses, we are talking big losses - The assets and revenues should see this rise to decent levels. Time will tell...
11m volume churned
It should be big blue
7m market cap
Net proceeds of 65-110m
Bid at 2.41, i bet this goes blue by close