We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
at a couple of points over last few days Barc has risen a little when certain pressures have been eased
even yesterday rebounded to 138 (for about 30seconds) before 1stRB fell down again
Trouble is, there are those that have been locked in due to the hope that the share price will at some point accelerate.
Maybe if they just keep doing buybacks, the share price will be forced to go north due to fewer shares in a decade or so!
At least they've been buying back a chunk of shares at the low prices.
When others are fearful…
IMO if BARC goes down, you will have bigger things to worry about. You will be looking at the type of total systemic collapse that would make the Wall Street Crash look like a fairly minor blip in the road. If you have too much on the table here, or any other stock for that matter, consider reducing your position to something that you are more comfortable with, even if it means locking in some loss. Not advice of course. Nor something that I myself have always been disciplined enough to follow. But a sensible idea, nevertheless, IMO.
Always darkest before dawn.
Be back ~160 level (early May) IMO as long as Q1 update holds up and the banking skeletons have been locked back in the cupboard
I'm hoping to break even and then sell out this time next year...Fingers crossed they are still trading by then.
I do not think I will ever just buy and hold a bank stock, even though some elderly family members have done very well with just that policy. IMO they enjoyed a 40 year bull market, which is over :) There are very few sectors where I would consider this strategy in the stock market. Certainly very few individual stocks. I do not disagree with the gripes some of you have here, but I do not really see it changing either, not without major shareholder moves, or an activist investor or two. So, this is one that you either try and trade your way out of, with the potential risks that this entails, sell at a loss, or continue to hold...but try not to let it get to you. Easier said than done, I appreciate.
My holding of Barclays is also close to 10 years. It is really frustrating to hold this bank. On surface, the ratios point to a much higher valuation. But in reality, the bank just keeps disappointing investors.
For capital allocation, they are very stingy to dividend and buybacks, but they are very generous on employee compensation. The bonus pool for a year they over issued security is greater than dividend amount. How they can justify such behavior a "bonus" is beyond me. And the last is employee pension is from after tax profit?
Yeah, I was thinking DB too. As well as at least four others that IMO are far more vulnerable than BARC. But I appreciate the frustrations of LTH's. I am in the same boat on a couple of stocks. A few others...I am one of the holders who will make a tidy profit if/when certain t/o's happen, because I am a recent holder, rather than a LTH. A couple of stocks I took profits...only to see the SP sail away and not return again. Ultimately, we all have to just try and make more than we lose and adopt a strategy that we think works best to this end. GLA.
The Reducer
I notice you’re on your A Game when looking back and quoting stuff that has already happened.
@ atfabricationsbt: With Credit Suisse out of the way, is Barclays now the bank with the worst reputation in Europe? I pity those who have invested in one that is worse! Whilst I take your point - at the time of writing Barcs SP is still falling (and even the big US banks SP is rising today!) but I refer to my post of 9th March. In that I set out my unhappy 10 year experience of investing in Barcs. I pointed out that in that period, the Barcs SP had fallen 41% (NW fell 17%, HSBC fell 13% and Lloyds fell 3%). I said that imo, this did not suggest a potential significant upswing in the Barcs SP as a lot of people have suggested. Rather it indicated a colossal anchor of negative perception and investor trust in the bank, which would see the SP gulf between it and its peers increase. As I now write, the revised 10 year position is Barcs fell 52%, NW fell 24%, Lloyds fell 13% and HSBC fell 26%. Lloyds is seemingly the better option in UK financials. I heard Venkat recently say that Edward Bramson could not have been more wrong in wanting to slim down the investment bank and return reward to shareholders. If that is so, then Barclays needs to start showing it. If it is highly profitable, then use those profits to fairly reward investors and entice investment to boost the SP. I know it is somewhat distorted by recent events, but it is worth noting that when Bramson invested in Barcs, the SP stood at around £2.17! I think Barcs will come out of the current situation intact, but will do so with a big red flag flying. It has to change. It has to be better run and it has to start treating shareholders fairly. If it continues on its current trajectory, with everyone noticing how brittle the SP is against any jitters in the market, whose to say, at some point in the future, it won't go the same way as Credit Suisse?
Barclays have the 3rd highest TR-1's issued after Credit suisse and UBS next is VM.
The whole subordinating TR-1's before equity has the market concerned and refininacing these currently will cost alot more. Hence the Barclays price lower than others.
BOE and EU hav clarified that TR-1's will continue to be above ordinary equity so markets should calm down eventually at least regarding this.
Not a screaming buy right now at all, IMO, but certainly no FRC either. Not sure why Lloyds is doing a bit less badly, unless it is the pending ex div, as I mentioned in a previous post. I dislike the essentially pure UK exposure in that one personally, although I would be delighted (and a little surprised) if we bucked the trend, ahead of the dark global times that I see in the short to medium term at least.
Yes my thoughts exactly UBS @+1.96% yet Barclays still in the red.
My only thought is Barclays is holding assets the market doesn't like....beggars belief what that could be.
Warsaw - I agree but even Virgin Money is up 2% today so Barc is really lagging. I assume that's as a result of its history of dropping unpleasant surprises every so often. Absent any of those, this could be a good entry point.
We have the buy back and possibly a flight to safety to factor in.
I can see bank users shifting their savings from smaller potentially riskier banks to the bigger banks which are very well capitalised. Investors complain about Barclay being conservatively run when it comes to paying dividends etc but that might now be seen as a strength. The buy back was I think stalled last year, this year they are getting on with it.
At this price once we get through these issues then the share price should steadily improve. Look at the metrics - Barclays is a screaming buy.
Reducer that's my fear. Will be happy when we get past 31 March and divi paid. Barclays seems to have a more lowly rating than most US regional banks which have already shown extreme vulnerability and have Tier 1 capital of only around 8.5%. A bit odd. I'm hoping, after the way things dived after the last results announcement that the board will manage to be a bit more upbeat when reporting the first quarter.
What’s really annoying about the uk banks/ stock market is the negativity .UBS is back up today now Barclays 2% down it doesn’t make any sense.
@badprophet - so long as they don't do another last minute 'covid' on us and cancel the dividend to protect liquidity and capital. I can't see it happening because if it did, the toys would really come out of the pram.
Oh well - looking forward to the divi at month end. Probably a longish wait to get back in profit.
Central Banks cannot cover all the costs without undertaking the biggest round of QE yet. Which will have consequences for inflation that in the West we have only read about happening in other places. None of which could be described as either prosperous or particularly safe places. As far as banks go, I feel relatively comfortable in BARC (but not sufficiently to have anything more than a tiny holding right now). I am watching JPM too, which I will likely take a nibble if/when that one hits 100 dollars. Then a slightly bigger amount if we see 50. That would only happen IMO if the wheels properly fall off. I do not rule it out personally, but it also shows that I think, over the longer term, it would come back. Certainly to a sufficient degree to make such purchases profitable at some point.
Some further banks though are toast in the next 6-12 months IMO. If this is merely a short term blip, then hopefully my BARC will see me in profit sooner. Hence not sitting it out completely. GLA.
In my opinion any good news at the moment has no effect but a tiny bit of bad news does.
I am waiting for 125p ish before nibbling a few more. IMO there is no need to rush to buy banks today. I also do not see them making a rapid ascent when things turn around (as sooner or later they probably will). But I could be wrong. I usually am :)
another 60k shares sub 130