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Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/big-achievement-barclays-shares-ii531295
'Despite a near certainty the share price shall mess around a bit at the current level, possibly even discovering an excuse to retreat to 183p with secondary, if broken, at 173p, we’d not be immediately alarmed as movements such as this just fall into the criteria of “share prices can go down and up”, rather than establishing a strong trend'.
'In fact, should 173p make an appearance, there’s a pretty fair argument in favour of taking a long position with a seriously tight stop as we suspect another return to the 191p level shall be on the cards'.
'Now above 194.2p should apparently prove capable of triggering share price movement to an initial 220p with our secondary, if exceeded, at a future 251p. Perhaps we are placing a lot of emphasis on a positive movement of just a couple of pence, but it feels like the market is taking cognisance of the same trend we are'.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/can-barclays-shares-make-move-above-200p-ii531090
'The situation now looks like above 179.5p should next trigger share price movement to an initial 191.4p, along with a strong visual suggestion of some hesitation as this ambition matches the highs of 2023'.
'Our secondary is a bit vague, thanks to the circled manipulation gap. Closure above 191p should move the share price into a region, where our secondary calculates at 201p, perhaps even 221p, assigning the share a position where some true long-term recovery looks possible'.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/hope-barclays-shares-after-chart-breakout-ii530857
'It creates the situation where movement next above 167p should prove capable of provoking ongoing recovery to an initial 172.7p with secondary, if beaten, now at an interesting looking 194p. This secondary is of special interest, perhaps even giving the share price an opportunity to close a session above the prior closing high of 189.5p and suggest happy days may be ahead for the share price'.
Us Inflation came in higher than expected; yet JP only down 0.5%, whilst BARC down 1.75%. The downside effects of US news is felt harder much harder and faster, on the flip side any positive update from US side has limited upside. Pretty much one way traffic.
No, the back-dated dividends were never paid back to shareholders.
As pointed out on this board in the past, this disregard for the shareholder, is one of a number of contributing reasons for the general dislike of this share.
Once again, come end of day, we see yet another drop.
7.5% YTD drop. Whilst S&P 500 up ~6% YTD. For whatever reason when the S&P falls, BARC follows, but never on the upwards side.
Cant see this share ever moving upwards, best we can hope is short bursts of increases followed by sharp drops back down.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/barclays-shares-are-ticking-right-boxes-ii530647
....some analysis on the share price movement
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/barclays-shares-drop-below-downtrend-again-ii530424
....Unfortunately, for now, we regard the share price as heading to 136.3p.
It would seem the lack of any transparency from the board or Venkat, on the actual benefits of the restructuring and resultant return to shareholders, is actually weighing heavy on the share price, rather ironically.
Cant see Venkat holding the position for much longer, since his appointment, its gone from bad to worse.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/can-barclays-shares-deliver-some-christmas-cheer-ii530210
'It’s a pity the price didn’t better our 152p target as the implication is of hidden weakness. Any reversal below 144.2p theoretically allows for a visit to 136p, a target level we’re not confident about due to the amount of work employed in forcing the price above Red on the chart. The chart inset shows the effort made during November and December to respect Red, which makes us suspect it is unlikely there are any plans to plunge the share anytime soon.
If our optimism is to be reflected by reality, above 152p should now trigger share price recovery to an initial 157p with secondary, if bettered, at 168p.
The visuals currently indicate a risk of hesitation at the 157p given the level of prior highs, but should 168p be exceeded a further 181p shall be viewed as exerting an influence for the longer term'.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/barclays-shares-and-tale-two-trends-ii529990
'Below just 138p calculates with the potential of reversal to an initial 130p with our longer term secondary, if broken, working out at a future 120p, along with a vague potential for a bounce. In the event the 120p level breaks, about the best we dare hope for is a rebound before the 100p level. It is certainly quite odd how the UK feels like it’s prepping each of the Big Three banks for some savage reversals'.
'However, Barclays need only close a session above 144.6p to ruin our predictions. Above 144.6p looks capable of triggering surprise recovery to an initial 152p with secondary, if exceeded, an eventual 160p and some potential hesitation, given share price behaviour at this level during this year'.
...Don't quite understand this article. But 'From an immediate perspective, we are fairly cynical on what’s coming next'....stood out.
....“A potential material, but unspecified, restructuring charge to deliver unspecified benefits over an unspecified time period adds to uncertainty about Barclays strategy and financial target,” wrote the analysts
This sums up the key reason (at least to myself) as to why the stock fell soo fast and in such a short space of time. Again comes back to management not relaying enough information on what the restructuring, namely cost and benefits. As know one knows, on the day of results it will come out as a surprise, I doubt very much a good surprise, as costs will be felt in Q4, so expect another big price drop on next results day in Feb 2024. Which can only be mitigated by an equally positive surprise on a larger than expected buybacks/ special dividend.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/patience-needed-barclays-shares-ii529774
'Closure above 139p should make surprise recovery to an initial 147p possible with secondary, if exceeded, at 161p and some probable hesitation, judging by the share price history at such a level. Future closure above 161p shall be viewed as quite a big deal, carrying an expectation of share price recovery to 181p and beyond'.
'Of course, we’ve an alternate argument, one which is quite painful. Movement now wandering below 129p risks promoting the concept of reversal to an initial 119p with secondary, if broken, at 116p. The proximity of these target levels tends to suggest a share price bounce shall be possible, especially as any movement below 116p calculates with an eventual bottom potential at 100p'.
Thank you for the video link, that was an interesting watch.
'....what are shareholders should expect from us in terms of returns........I am really looking forward to doing that in February'.
Part of me wonders if we could hope for a large dividend announcement. This being Barclays, no doubt the focus will be on the restructuring costs and impact on the bottom line and another +10% fall on the day.
Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644863-barclays-buy-rating-retained-conviction-lowered
'I struggle to maintain a high level of confidence regarding the current management team'.
' I've also been disappointed that management appears to have failed to properly assess the potential range of outcomes for the UK NIM, and to communicate such to the market. The lack of detail provided in 3Q23 regarding the imminent restructure charge and associated cost savings is another example of a disappointing lack of clarity from management'.
...Its beginning to seem more and more apparent the current CEO Venkat is out of his depth. It seems the biggest reason for the recent drop, is lack of clarity and details leading into Q44, which any responsible management team should have foreseen. In my opinion, with the current CEO holding his position the share price will not reflect the true value of the bank.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/will-barclays-continue-respect-trend-line-ii529487
'...the immediate situation calculates with the potential of weakness below 150.5p allowing for reversal to an initial 146.5p with secondary, if broken, at 143.6p and a price level by which it really should bounce. A nice positive earnings report would certainly provide sufficient excuse for the market to allow Barclays a day in the sun'.
'If we pretend confidence in our scenario, it’s easy to imagine a situation where the market continues to drag Barclays down the trend line. And suddenly, by 24 October confidence suddenly returns. As a result, it is easy to calculate an initial bounce target of 169p, an important price level as it would cheerfully take the share price above the glass ceiling which has formed in the lower 160’s'.
'This should create a situation where some real, longer-term recovery becomes a viable ambition with our secondary target of 185p making a lot of visual sense. Hopefully, when we revisit the company in three week's time, we can take a more cheery outlook'.
Https://www.businesspost.ie/news/barclays-venkatakrishnan-warns-turbulent-times-ahead-for-banking-sector/
Stagnant deal activity, easing volatility and peaking interest rates are set to compound pressure on bank earnings, according to Barclays chief executive officer.
....this didn't help. He sure can time his interviews at the worst time. Prob need to brush up on his media skills.
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/my-fears-barclays-shares-ii529264
However, if we pretend undying optimism, it’s now the case where movement exceeding 163.18p should next make an attempt at 175p with secondary, if exceeded, now calculating at 185p. We’re not terribly impressed with current price movements as they lack real confidence.
Should a slowdown be on the cards, below 153.7p risks triggering reversal to an initial 152p with secondary, if broken, down at 150p and hopefully a bounce.
Visually, our fear is of a protracted “walk” down the Blue trend line on the chart until sufficient set of circumstances are discovered to allow Barclays to make a future attempt to show some gains.
Glad, I'm not the only one that doesn't understand the mechanics of why Barclays is falling.
Thought crossing my mind....is it worth going long now, on the off chance it rebounds within the next 3-4 weeks.
Any thoughts as to why BARC only closed +0.2% yesterday whilst the likes of Natwest and lloyds closed +3%. And at the same today, it is one of the biggest fallers in the FTSE100, whilst other banks are down a modest 0.5-0.6%, inline with FTSE.