Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Central banks need to start showing their backing for the system a bit more heavily as investors are clearly not believing things are stable.
Not helped by the ECB raising rates by another 0.5% - just makes the pressure increase again. Ridiculous.
It’s not over yet !!!
Shares of First Republic
and several other regional banks were under pressure again on Thursday, as the Swiss National Bank’s move to shore up Credit Suisse did little to calm fears about more mid-sized bank failures in the U.S.
First Republic fell more than 25% in premarket trading. PacWest
dropped more 15%, and Western Alliance
fell about 9%.
Don't expect an immediate bounce, shares never recover in a day, trend change take months and longer, the fact is they offer a good return is key, noise will occur in the short term , don't let politics influence, politics could be argued both ways, Republican have an infinity with austrian economics which would let the banks collapse , in reality both parties are financed by banking in the way of political contributions and the Democrats take a larger share
Worst case is they cover all bank deposits worldwide but let creditors and stakeholders burn. It would help Biden with his dislike for billionaires etc. who knows what the hell will happen, but today hasn’t been the bounce we’d all expected if we’re honest!
I was scathing about how long they left interest rates at zero, or thereabouts, for over a decade. Felt even further distain for their continuation of this brainless approach following the madness of lockdown. However, the past cannot be undone and IMO now is the time for a pause in rate hikes, both here and in Europe and the US. I would like to see rates kept at current levels for at least another three months, to allow some more of the lagging effects of all those sudden hikes to be in view. Such a decision IMO would not see a sustained rally in the stock markets, nor a sudden surge in inflation. It would not ensure a soft landing, or any kind of magic solution to the many problems that we now cannot avoid. But I think it would be the least worst option available.
Brave, I’m hovering but undecided.
Keep it calm and steady for the foreseeable. Just for once Lagarde, Powell, Bailey et al can help the markets with steady action and soft words. First up, Lagarde today. Expect carnage if a 0.5% rise and hawkish tones are seen and heard. But she might get away with a 0.25% rise if she brings in soft language on inflation and strong reassurance on the banking sector. What we don't want to see and hear is any more creaking from any particular bank. If the US and central banks do their bit and there are no more unwelcome noises from any bank, then I would settle for a penny a day rise in my Barcs shares for the next two months and take it from there! Anything less and I suspect my poor wife will be inheriting this junk in the very near future.
142.17p I’m in!
I think the answer is probably no, but its still early!
I know its very early in the day however we often hear Barcs has gone down more than others etc.., today it has gone up more than most! 5th highest riser on FTSE at time of typing. Only HSBC is higher in Banking.
bought some on the bell. Waiting to see direction of play before next buy.
To me this sounds like a 'pre-emptive bailout.' CS were likley going to go under if it wasn't done. This now begs the question of the health of hte banking ecosystem - there have been concerns around Deutsch and UBS so the CS agreement here does nothing for them - so will the fires spread?
On the bell or waiting to see?
‘But if the bonds are held to maturity what is the issue?’
True, but in the meantime they have to be marked to market which shows a loss albeit not a cash one
If they had to sell the bonds now that’s a huge loss to book and you could argue that the sp should relate to that position today.
But if the bonds are held to maturity what is the issue?
Yes, the central bank loan of up to CHF50 billion / USD53.7 billion will support the core businesses. They are also instigating a buyback on approx USD3 billion worth of debt. This decisive action should calm things down. Good luck, Brighty
the doubt is around bond holdings etc of each bank, not the health of cs so much
This sounds like a good thing to me?
They did it….. Credit Suisse will be borrowing up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($53.68 billion) from the Swiss National Bank under a covered loan facility and a short-term liquidity facility.…….more pain to come
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/credit-suisse-to-borrow-up-to-about-54-billion-from-swiss-national-bank.html
@reducer - Thanks for a well written post and I agree with all 5 points. My personal opinion - despite how inadequate the Barclays board and senior leadership team is; is that Barclays has good businesses, spread across multiple business units across the globe. Despite the faults, the bank can't help but make money. So whilst the business could be so much better than what it is, for all the reasons you've commented on it's still a good organisation at the core. I love the idea of someone being on the board to represent the shareholders. The whole board is supposed to do that but to have someone whose sole role was to look after them would give some reassurances.
The business is good. The staff are good. Barclays are innovating and investing and spending a fortune on compliance. They are by all accounts a profitable and sound business with very weak leadership. The facts are the numbers don't add up in terms of how undervalued this business is. Maybe the board should be swept away. Venkat is someone that Jes Stayley brought in so maybe him going would be a good start. Most of the board members are getting half a million pounds worth of share awards every 3-6 months. Maybe they should make that dependent on share price increase.
When this business gets recognised for it's proper value us shareholders will be rewarded and I don't think that's too far in the distance.
Good luck all.
Will this drop below £1? Money ready if it does.
Barclays are now more an investment bank than Retail so that in itself should answer your question
I don't think so. I think it's an attempt to calm the markets and suggests that the Swiss believe Credit Suisse to be creditworthy or else they may have needed to take more drastic action.
Why has Barclays fallen way more than Lloyds & NatWest?
Are there any ex city ppl on this board? Is the fall to do with Barc having way more exposure to CS counter-party risk because of their Investment Bank side? If the Swiss central bank steps in, would barc have to take a big ‘mark to market’ adjustment on their counter-party stuff?
Can’t get my head around it’s fallen way more than the banks.
Any views appreciated