Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Rats is your theory that the stock will be worth more because they will have less liquidity, make less loans due to risk, bad debt increases and they become less profitable for all those reasons?
LWHL,
Those who have the largest debts need low interest rates and high inflation. Who has the largest debt, well the US has over $31 Trillion !
Not only that, but credit lines for growing business will be impacted especially mining and oil companies.
Just wait for it…
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2022/
The problem is simple banks and hedge funds are heavily exposed to the bond markets. Interest rates need to go up to calm inflation. What a mess.
Rats don't hold your breath.
I am inclined to agree with the poster who said the root causes may be different to 2008, but if the result is essentially the same, it ultimately does not matter. As for central bank forecasts re inflation, I am in the camp that has no faith in them already. I remember almost ranting on one chat board or other back in mid/late 2020 about how wrong they were going to be about inflation, when it was not even being discussed in the media as a potential risk for example, and then again when they talked about it being transitory when they could no longer hide from it. You just have to hope they get a call right at some point! Would be delighted if the Russia war ends soon. No winners in any war IMO. Only losers.
Auson: Was it Blanchflower, ex BoE, who I read suggested this strategy today or yesterday? IMO that would be akin to putting your hand in a pot of boiling water, expecting a different outcome to the first time you tried it. More QE = more inflation. They will cut rates at some point and then you can almost bet your life savings that the stock market will crash. They will not do this until they feel they have no other option. Given where we are in terms of debt piles and high inflation, I think that more QE would be the worst option they could plump for. They should never have done QE1 in the first place.
Newdealz: thanks for your thoughts on the technicals. I was pondering lowering that TP I had in mind already, and think I will now go for 118p. Would then likely add more if we dropped to a quid. Then would sit on my hands, because if that point comes, there will be lots of attractive options in the market and I need to keep enough powder dry for when the time comes.
Most enjoyable discussing ideas and sharing differing opinions with you all. It is one of the great things about these chat boards to my mind.
I've bought more and more and more this will go back up eventually, you just need to keep calm!!!!!!! Things will settle down there could be even a small bounce next week!!!! For the sellers
Ive sold all banks early this morning at a small loss. Thought last week was the bounce but it didnt happen. Too much downside hear now, its all perception, but perception can wipe you out! Add to this the battle for US debt ceiling in a couple of months and its the perfect storm imo. I'll be back but for now, the powder is dry and locked away!
Hedge funds need to be controlled!!
@Andrew1987: Does it matter if there are differences between the cause of the 2008 crash and what is happening now, if the outcome is the same? Two US banks have gone and a top European bank has gone. Two weeks later, after governments , central banks and the banks themselves have reassured everyone that the banks are in a good place, there is today an absolute assault on the SP of banks - as someone described it, the markets are in 'seek and destroy' mode. If it continues, it seems only a matter of time before the next bank, big or small will go and the downward spiral will gather pace. I said last week, I didn't think the US were doing enough to shore up their mid-sized banks. If the reality is that governments and central banks cannot prevent the market assault, then we wait to see which bank is the next to crack. And if it is one of the majors, such as Deutsch Bank, we are done for, because investors and depositors will take it as a sign that they have been lied to by governments and bankers.
@LWHL - you are right about inflation, its an unknown and can last a long time the 1970s was a classic case all be it with totally different market conditions. Once it gets baked in it can takes years to come down.
Areas to watch 128 for a double bottom else down to 116 area then sub £1. FTSE 6900 area, this will be the real test <<<<
having said that a lot of this 'bad' news has been known a while with these banks which is why i think the news release is orchestrated to a point, FED and BOE have made it clear they are not happy with new market highs in current situation, im keeping hold of some cash for these coming bargains. Market is pricing in coming bad news but if that said bad news is not as bad as they thought i would expect some nice rallies but probably not a new bull market.
Andrew,
You say inflation is ‘projected’ to fall to 3% by the end of the year. I for one do not trust these so called experts. The ‘experts’ claimed through Covid that the spike inflation was ‘transitory’. Clearly it wasn’t. Had interest rates been ramped up sooner inflation wouldn’t be as high as it is.
The bottom line is I do not trust the BOE, the Fed and other central banks. They are rudderless and are bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted.
Why are central banks and governments not targeting the real issue of inflation, which is sheer profiteering from companies. The oilers being the main offenders. What’s the point in raising interest rates to dangerous levels while companies are profiteering and ramping up prices? Talk about running a bath with the plug out.
LWHL,
The thesis for lower rates and more QE have never been stronger !
Fair comments LWHL but I don’t believe any of the issues you mentioned are route causes of bank rot, more causes of low confidence. The difference between 2008 and now is that in 2008, the problem actually was with the institutions. This time, the problem is elseware which is leading to low confidence rather than long term failings. Inflation is projected to be sub 3% by the end of the year, putin grows weaker every month as you will see by no big spring offensive and interest rates will surely follow inflation and temper which will help to grow the economy in due course. All returning confidence. Maybe it will take longer to return to roses but low confidence and the panic will quickly subside imho. Usual caveats, dyor apply. Best wishes to you.
...and there is still one more week for Bailey and Barclays to decide to rub a bucketful of sea salt on this open festering sore of a stock, by cancelling the dividend. I wouldn't put it past them.
I hope you are right too, Andrew. But consider this: we do not have inflation under control. We have seen the fastest interest rate rises in history (I think I am right in saying). We have record national debt levels and private debt levels too. The thesis for de-globalisation is getting stronger and stronger IMO, as we see the BRICS strengthening their relationships. Tensions between China and the West are rising at the same time. The Russia war has escalated. I do not see any of these things being resolved in the next few months. In fact it would be a miracle if any of them were resolved in the next few months, although we can live in hope that at least the Russia war might be. Then again, it is now more than a year. People said WW1 and WWII would be over in a year. Anyway, no more gloomy posts from me. The sun is shining and in the wider scheme of things, we just need to make the best of life in the short time we all have. GLA and have a good weekend.
Which with a market cap of £181m you could argue is priced to fail.
I will just let that sink in if you don't think today is a Barclays buying opportunity.
Just a bit of gentle joshing, AngerSharkz. FWIW, I absolutely want you to be right.
I genuinely don't see a crash coming. In 2008 there was underlying deep rooted rot. This blip is just in confidence. War in europe, inflation, post covid etc, it's normal for markets to be low in confidence and banks take the brunt but once it doesn't crash over the next few months and confidence returns, so will the prices and the ones who bought when others are fearful, will benefit.
This crash will eclipse 2008.
The cause is the collapse of the petrodollar and US economy, which is saddled in debt.
She is hapless
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0inUP6W20I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy5A55YAZ7E
Another bank under the microscope. This is not looking good.
'The financial system is robust as we’ve been told by the central banks, various world leaders and financial institutional experts.'
Are you Janet...are you Janet...are you Janet Yellen in disguise? Are you Janet Yellen in disguise? :)
Before the crash is always denial.
Was the same in 2008 bust.