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OK let’s keep the bashers away for the weekend.
Avacta pipeline
What’s everyone’s Top 3 Biggest Blockbusters to come out of this List:
My Top 3
1. AVA6000 this could explode the oncology pipeline
2. Affidx so close now if and when this launches the diagnostic pipeline has so much potential.
3. Affyxell this company alone will be worth a fortune.
(Dark Horse Astrea)
Ava6000,
AVA7500,
AVA028,
AVA7000,
AVA004
AVA027,
AVA3996
plus 4 undisclosed targets
Affidx supply World wide Gov’s ?
Bams Bruker
Elisa Abcam
New Test Mologic
Plus in house pipe line
non-COVID diagnostic tests, which include assays D-dimer,
cortisol,
vitamins D
B12
CRP
LG Chem x 8 targets
Daewoong x 2 targets
Gene & stem cell
45% ownership Affyxell
Point x 1 radiopharma drug
ADC Therapeutics x 3 targets
Moderna x 1 license
Astrea x 1
Deepverge x 1
Biokit x 1
Well, that’s not fair, you’ve already picked out the top 3. I’d swap 1 and 2, purely because it’s an absolute banker that will unlock everything else on the list. Close call though, both of them are happening this year and both of them are humongous for the future prospects of this cracker of a company
PL
I think everyone would pick 1 & 2 but just wanted to see everyone’s number 3 and possible Dark Horse.
Agree about Affidx unlocking everything else what a future this company has...
TMAC in AVA004
And doubtless others that we don't yet know about.
Not a bad list that! Think we can be very comfortable with our investment in Avacta....
My number 3 from the list is number 2 of "plus 4 undisclosed targets"
Big Al has hinted there are numerous other large pharma (global interest) evaluating Affimers for further liscening deals.
Likely to have multiple announcements in h2 and h1 next year.
Wonderful post Energy. Same top 3 for me but if I'm honest I'm a bit overwhelmed by the length of the product list and feel a little incompetent to comment more. What a superb LTH share
Great post as ever Energy - yes weve got a good few routes to success to justify my previous comparison that the current rivalry between ODX and Avacta is comparable to Stockport County and Manchester City - where as many moons ago it was briefly the opposite
GLA
POD65
It is a remarkable list and all this work is being done under Covid restrictions to the business.
Everyone who has held through thick & thin will receive the rewards very soon.
@egtp thing I fund strange with ODX is the government contract was RNS'd a long time ago so wouldn't it be priced in?
Or will it get priced in when they start producing AffiDX and get some sales. They've not divulged any contracts for their vivisect (second in class) test.
Timster,
I suspect that the £50m (minimum contract value) is priced in but ODX will hope for something nearer the £394m (maximum).
Nice post ES.
AffyXCell could be huge in the long term, but it seems to be very early stage, and a lot of time and a lot of funding will be needed before it can be brought to clinic.
Number 3 for me is TMAC. So much potential in this fully patented approach to cancer therapy.
And my dark horse is the LG Chem licensing deal. The fact they were willing to put down an upfront fee (plus future contingent payments) to take their collaboration to the next step licensing the XT serum suggests more to me than just a speculative add-on. It looks like real progress is being made in their pre-clinical development work, and they have Affimers they want to keep resident for longer in vivo for some purpose or other.
CO
Agree but what I like about Affyxell it’s a separate company JV between Avacta and Daewoong it’s raised it’s own money for next generation cell and gene therapies.
It’s like our shares in Avacta also own a share of another company.
TMAC is also very exciting but to be honest after this year any on that list can bring substantial revenue.
Also once Affidx launches AS will have to watch out for Big Pharma moving in for the IP.
Fair point ES and there is a lot to love! AffyXell is an investment in a unique concept in a hot biotech space (mesenchymal stem cells... plus Affimers), and as an investment, could even return value before it has launched a product. To think the cost was essentially just access to Affimer IP. Maybe it will creep up on us and move the needle on Avacta value when no one is expecting. Or if we keep our share of it, the partial ownership could ultimately make it more valuable than a licensing royalty deal.
Perhaps my horizon is too near. It still seems very early stage and speculative to me. I like to think that by the time it realises its potential, Avacta may be worth at least a few billion already, due to other products/ collaborations.
So AffyXell is awesome. But personally I think TMAC is even more exciting than AVA6000, based on the initial in vivo performance data. In late 2019 they showed that just combining the two parts (AVA004, a PD-L1 inhibitor; AVA100/I-DASH, a chemo warhead) as separately dosed drugs they were able to induce complete tumour regression in some mice models, and even induce an immune response upon reintroduction of the tumour 60 days later. In other words they were able to both cure the cancer and make the mice immune to future recurrence of the tumour! Seeing that last year was a real “holy s****” moment for me. In the FY2019 results they showed similar results from studies with initial linked TMAC molecules.
Slides 18/19 here:
https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Avacta-Group-July-2019-16-9.pdf
Slide 15 here:
https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Avacta-Group-plc-Prelim-Results-Shareholder-Meeting-2020.pdf
That’s why TMAC is a clear top 3 prospect for me, but I respect all your choices. ;)
"Also once Affidx launches AS will have to watch out for Big Pharma moving in for the IP"
i`m thinking the same, can the Dr AL really be arsed with Lft`s after all what`s happened previously when all this done and dusted.
i`m sure he`d like to devote his time solely on the cancer side if he could...
Familiar looking apostrophes...
I keep seeing multiple user names with the same spelling, grammar errors and style across their posts which leads me to deduce that.... *insert the obvious*
CO
This what I love about this company.
It is researched to the hilt, with fantastic inputs from everyone.
For a new investor reading this board today they can also take away the knowledge and research everyone has put in over the last year.
It’s just a shame LSE allows the trolls to spoil and clog the board up.
Thanks CO that Moderna licence is one to watch as well.
Yes, I remember those apostrophes. And I remember them saying that they weren't unusual.
How unusual.