The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"We believe COVID-19 testing remains a long-term commercial opportunity. We will therefore use the robustness of the Affimer® platform, and what we have learned about the SARS-CoV-2 virus, to generate the next generation antigen test that will be as resilient as possible to any future mutations"
Next generation doesn't sound like a quick fix.
At least it seems we will be using Affimers to replace those antibodies "We will therefore use the robustness of the Affimer® platform, and what we have learned about the SARS-CoV-2 virus, to generate the next generation antigen test"
The question is how much can be swapped without going through validation processes again.
There is a certain amount time that it will take which is out of Avacta and med19's hands, I'm sure it has been mentioned on here a few times 210 days which by my thinking would land us in febuary.
The problem is nobody knows when the application was sent and received. So there is a possibility it is imminent.
Travel_light it all depends on the details of the NDA.
This is a prime example, had there not been an NDA in place Avacta would have had to release an RNS either to confirm a licensing agreement of Meduflow or a speculation RNS.
There has been alot of mention of potential NDA'S overpast 18 months but we know as fact the NDA between Avacta and Medusa19.
Under the non disclosure Avacta can not disclose any information put in the agreement including releasing information which is price sensitive which would otherwise be compulsory Rns'd, as it would be in breach of agreement and contract.
Https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/
I think they will turn into the biggest market and will be testing in airports for the next decade.
At no cost to the government and only an extra £3 on to cost of a flight nobody will complain.
You can be sure no government will want to take any chances of bringing new varient across their borders, it will also help keep the R rate low its a win win for everybody citizens and governments across the world.
I believe in this sector only the very best tests will be used.
Non covid LFD's and a range of products owned under the AffiDX brand.
The lateral flow assay market was 7 billion dollars per annum pre covid, capturing just 1/30th (non covid LFD) of this market would give 230 million in revenue which is easily acheivable for the owner of one of the most accurate Sars Cov-2 lateral flow tests.
It's now looking highly possible that the diagnostic's arm could fund the therapeutics through the clinic and on to "sales" and not just AVA6000 but also the other Ava products.
Revenue from AffiDX Sars Cov-2 is likely for a couple of years at least, how much this revenue will be is yet to be seen but even at the lowest estimates of up to 5m LFDs per month the revenue generated from this alone will cover cashburn.
Several other AffiDX brand products are under production and when/if we reach a point where Sars Cov-2 tests are no longer needed these other AffiDX products will continue to cover cash burn and possibly over and above that.
On top of this the Affimer platform has been put in the spot light due to this pandemic,
Global interest of Affimers "extremely high profile" with "a number of evaluations ongoing"
A number of licensing deals expected in the "coming months and years" and these products will start hitting the market and royalties will start streaming in.
Exciting times for Avacta with AVA6000 entering the clinic next month and first readings due by year end.
Just watched the presentation. Certainly think the market has over reacted, biggest issue no imminent sales of AffiDX tho there was numourus positives about over seas manufacturers and other none covid diagnostic tests.
As for the profit margins I was never expecting much more than £1 and all calculations were around this figure, so margins between 1-2 euros is decent.
Innova have driven the prices down and I would imagine as time goes on they will come down a little more.
Big Al still staking claim to best test in the world this coupled with the continued enthusiasm of "global" interest in Affimers fills me with confidence for the long term.
It's just more hurdles that they can fail tests on as an excuse.
The last paragraph says it all.....
They will continue using Innova.
It's becoming clearer now the frustration big Al and the team have been facing dealing with this government and their hidden Agenda,they have done well to keep there composure and professionalism.
The whole situation stinks to high heaven.
Personally I don't believe there has been any sales, such an event of first sales of AffiDX are monumental milestone for Avacta and I believe they would RNSed.
I also believe that there is not enough tests available to make sales as buyers will want the tests on purchase as apposed to "pre-order".
TT is still on going at BBI and Abingdon as far as I'm aware(happy to be corrected) hence lack of inventory.
We will sell all we can make it is going to take a little more time tho as has everything thus far.
Scaleing up to 5m per month is likely to be high up on the list of discussions on Monday.
It feels now Avacta would be better distancing themselves with UK gov whose total incompetence is causing waves through the whole UK diagnostic industry.
Have ODX got a 13 year old in charge of their social media accounts.
Embarrassing for share holders yet again.
Personally I don't see it as a connecting to Innova, more making a point if Innova are building a factory and planning to manufacture 1.5 billion tests per month than the market is huge in the coming years.
And by manufacturing any tests the government want they are guaranteed to be manufacturing at full capacity for the next few years.