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Boring post
"the risk profile to potential returns far outweighs the potential to lose all my investment here."
That's interesting because I imagine that's what a lot here think too.
Its interesting because it leads to the obvious question of, what return are you expecting?
And that will differ for most of us because it depends on the average price we all have have bought at.
And here's the thing: We have no idea and never have done, what the stock is worth.
We don't know what the profit margin is, we don't when it will come to market. We don't know if there will be more dilution. (If AVCT are going it along they will need more money.) We don't know the further cost of getting it to market. (by my admittedly quick calculations its close to £200m so far). We don't know the cost of the next one in the pipeline. We have no idea about competition and no idea how long the tech will be used for.
I am ignoring the risk as I am assuming you have only invested what you can comfortably afford to lose as you stated you realise you could lose everything.
(I remember a while ago now there was a "balls deep" thread where lots here admitted they were over committed but happy knowing that the LFT was going to be wildly successful. Plus AVCT had so many strings to their bow they could not fail to hit the target. Since then the animal division has been sold, it seems the DX is up for sale, the LFT affimer route has proved uncommercial and now rests on this one last throw that has taken more time to than we were led to believe from the CEO thus far to get to this stage. I digress.)
Anyway, what was your entry price and what is your target exit price and over what time frame?
If you can't answer these basic questions then how can you or could you have ever decided what the potential reward was for the risk?
To be fair to Ice Wynn did you manage to call the share price depreciation as a sign of an obvious, nailed on, incoming Big Phara deal like ICE did?
No, I thought not.
He knows what he's talking about that man.
Icecool
Echo what you have said. I'm just waiting for the 6th April !!
Yeah but Thompi, that was before AS got his speeding ticket.
I have invested in Avacta based on the tech as I believe it will eventually get approved by the FDA, the risk profile to potential returns far outweighs the potential to lose all my investment here, this is early stage bio,(which I am prepared to do) every investment can sometimes go wrong (didn’t say otherwise that’s obvious if you DYOR), however based on the pre clinical data, exceptional safety data in humans, the biopsy data, and the fact Dox kills cancer cell's it looks good so far. The only thing I need to do is wait till Avacta goes through the trials with the FDA and as long as the results are coming in and we get approval to move to the next stage it will come to it’s inevitable conclusion (good or bad). If your hypothetical scenario comes up in an RNS saying going to be huge delays based on xyz etc then I will look again at the risk and reward potential and make a decision accordingly. For the moment we have been told they plan commercialism 2026 and we are going to start phase 2 dose expansion H2. What Avacta has done in the past doesn’t concern me, it also didn’t concern the institutional investors that gave Avacta 26 million odd the 34% discount been wiped out by the market so can’t say they got in cheap short term. All I care about is the facts in the here and now via the RNS system. Again if you don’t believe Avacta will deliver why are you invested? That’s a question people need to ask themselves.
Safebreaker
Will be interesting to see how they play it this coming week. Do they give up on trying to push the SP down to 40p having been rumbled by the last RNS?
They may currently be very poorly positioned for next week and their FUD to bury posts is very obvious when the BB is quiet over the bank holiday weekend
The trouble with the self appointed censors of the board getting posts deleted is that other posts also get swept up.
So I will repost mine to Touk.
The word “exceeded” is used twice by AS in the PH VOX interview 13th December 2023.
“I think it's fair to say that what we have now has EXCEEDED all expectations and that the overarching takeaway message from the data we released this morning is that Pre|CISION is doing exactly what it was intended to ……….we're in a position where we can see now that we can improve the quality of life of patients and that was probably, pragmatically our aim when we started the safety study. But as I say, we've far EXCEEDED that now…..”
The first mention is approximately 3:13 into the interview.
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/q-a-with-avacta-s-ceo-alastair-smith-790c4e8/
All you fudsters, that are not invested, it’s a big week for your employers, I suppose , the shorters may have to close their positions before the conference, big risk if they don’t. Perhaps
You should warn TW. Still plenty of time for you to make some more peanuts this next week.
Hopefully you will just Ffff************Kkkk off then.
Ice, nothing is the same I know, but AGL were trying to get their tech approved with the FDA. The holy grail.
One, it got delayed and ran late by over a year having taken longer than anyone predicted based on what the CEO said.
But, obviously it would open all the doors once approved. The shares were about 150p. Now, with approval they are 12-15p. (thats a 90% fall)
My point is when do the delays mount up to be a critical decider for you?
I understand the projection but based on whats gone before why do you believe it?
It would seem to me you have given the project 2 years. So what would happen if its not commercialised by then?
What would you do?
Its not about believing or not, its about having plans to cope with if things do not go the way you expected.
What will you do if it does not get approved?
You get hung up on the word trader or investor. You come across to me as someone who wants to be taken seriously as the next WB. But you don't seem to have a plan B.
Given the ONLY point of buying AVCT was for the stock to appreciate, how has the plan gone so far?
Did you expect this many raises and this amount of dilution since you bought originally? Have you managed to buy the stock when offered? Has this caused you to have a greater holding then you oringinally expected?
These questions need to be answered honestly all the time as otherwise you can start to fool yourself that you know what you are doing when in effect, none of us do.
If you honestly believe the difference between investing and gambling is whether or not you believe it will be FDA approved or not you are delusional.
Investing is minimal risk with predicatible, projected returns. ie profit making companies with dividends.
Throwing money at a small bio tech with a BoD that have never managed to meet one commercial promise is trust me, quite the gamble.
It would seem the difference between you and me is that I at least recognise what I am doing.
Windy I’m a little confused, again we have a projected timeline for AVA6000 commercialisation 2026, it won’t be 10 or 15 years. I could totally understand if the drug was in pre clinical with no end in sight, however it’s now in humans and the ball is rolling to its inevitable conclusion. It will either get approved or it won’t. This 10-15 year discussion you have created is hypothetical micro BS. You either believe this is going to get approved or you don’t. If you don’t believe not sure why you are even here and invested in the first place tbh. As I said you can try trade this but that’s not investing that’s gambling.
I will tell you another pretty simple concept the share price is what it is because investors have no belief that anything the company says is likely to be true
Ice, you have to start stretching ideas to see when or if they break down.
"If you are not concerned on timelines or need to sell up, waiting to see what the FDA does is the catalyst, hence I said investment case not the trading case."
So you are not concerned with timelines?
Say it takes 15 years? too long? If 15 is too long how about?10? still too long? Maybe through examining the absurd you get clarity on what is a vague statement to something more tangible and workable.
When the info changes you will sell. Or new stocks will come before you and you will buy. Thats why you manage your portfolio. But why are you managing it and not a fund manager? Presumably you think you will do a better job and make higher returns. (I hate to break it to you, but time is not the defining characteristic of a trader.)
How has that gone so far? (no sarchism intended)
So now time has gone by and you will wait how much longer and what rate does the return have to be?
Time is a crucial component of returns. Its an obvious statement but some here with their remarks seem to either wilfully ignore it or simply think maybe because they are (young(ish)) that time doesn't matter. well, guess what....
Anyway, fingers crossed the latest info will start to reaffirm that this stock is going somewhere upwards rather than its several year recent trajectory.
I am not sure Avacta ever stated “ . . . P1a exceeded all expectations“.
Even if they did, what does it mean? The mouse trial results were excellent. I haven’t seen any data that says human trial results weren’t as good. Tumour targeting was expected to be very precise so I don’t see why they were surprised that high dosing would be required in humans before reaching the OMD. Originally we told c5 would be the end. This better all become clear in the AACR presentation.
DTW, good points I would say that Avacta number 1 objective now is doing what the FDA tell them to maximise approval, if the FDA says jump we say how high even if they have to change plans, it’s that important they get this approved. Avacta know once they do get this approved, the share price will take care of itself as they get global market exposure. Of course this all depends if the data continues to hold up, no reason to think that it won’t.
Who said I was talking about you Windy. No matter what dilution occurs imo FDA approval will completely re-rate things, you only need to look at the average drugs mkt cap per year of other oncology drugs that gets approved once it’s achieved. This BB is obsessed with Micro BS that has no influence whatsoever of whether this will get approved or not by the FDA. If you are not concerned on timelines or need to sell up, waiting to see what the FDA does is the catalyst, hence I said investment case not the trading case.
Ice & B2 agree with all that. I would only add that what began as a simple concept (identify a MTD to guide P2RD) became significantly more complex as P1a exceeded all expectations.
I’m sure neither the Co nor SH’s expected P1a to get to C7 without an MTD. Wether we feel that the company thereafter have been scrambling to decide the best strategy as the cohorts progress is a moot point. I think most of us would agree that they haven’t. I think most of would agree that it seems they have been struggling to decide what to do with this beast they have created.
What is clear is that the evolving trial data coupled with poor comms and an inherent lack of understanding has led to the market doing what the market always does, adopt a conservative approach until it understands the opportunity and can see a return. And when it does it will again do what it always does and pile back in very quickly..
I feel we are very close to that ‘pinch point’
Fair point D-Geeman. But still doesn’t change my overall view that there has been a concerted effort to suppress the SP further using FUD in conjunction with large sell orders. Expect this to turn quickly at some point soon leaving a lot of regretful sellers. Narrative will follow price and those spreading FUD will log back in on their ramp accounts
Ice, I just wish you would be a bit more circumspect with your language.
I do not "spread fear". I simply look at alternative scenarios.
One example recently was whenr I was expectaing a discussing a raise, one of the objections to it was, AS said don't worry about funding and chuckled. With the implication everything was fine in a way that would not hurt stck holders.
I said one way of looking at that is that it could still be a dilution and because it was already sorted out there was no worry (at least to AS.) I was again as usual accused of FUD.
Its not spreading fear to examoine different outcomes to the same info released.
Its the type of language you use (and of course others) that stops this BB being truly helpful.
Nothing we say here affects the outcome. All we can do is look at what may or may not come to pass and see what is most likely through discussion and making a rational case for whatever side of the argument one believes in.
I just don't know what some here are so frightened of? Its bizzare.
Undersubsribed REX offer.
Not true. I was told off for making the same mistake on the REX offer Rablalex
RNS 5 March:
'The REX Offer was limited to an aggregate value of £6.8 million and received total applications in excess of this amount. Avacta has determined only to allocate REX Offer Shares to existing Avacta retail shareholders and therefore a total of approximately £5.4 million (equating to 10,896,948 REX Offer Shares) is expected to be raised pursuant to the REX Retail Offer.'
Seems there has been a big effort to push the SP below placing price over the last week. Trying to take advantage of PI buyers being exhausted (undersubsribed REX offer), awful sentiment and potential news blackout? A lot of FUD about and a large sell order pushing price below 50 and potentially to take a lot of traders stops. I wonder if the late day RNS caught them off guard?
Ice - I agree with your investment case statements.
IMO the problem is not IF but WHEN the FDA Approval is going to be issued, and the amount of dilution to be incurred by the loan before said Approval arrives.
There is Q2W to complete successfully (at least) to deliver compelling data.
A decreased amount of dilution can be expected after Approval as the sp could be expected to increase - but no plan currently exists to repay in part or whole, the outstanding principle.
Selling Dx is not something they are anticipating for a while it seems.
Dx proceeds likely won't pay off the loan.
AS EF SB & SC would need to prioritise loan repayment to reduce / end dilution
That leaves licensing deals as being the most likely form of income.
Lets see how the sp moves after AACR meeting.
To put it more bluntly if the FDA approves AVA6000 in my opinion we will see ATH’s. Everything that is going on at the moment regarding the price action etc is just missed opportunities, of course everyone would have loved to have sold at 130p and bought back in at 50p if you believe in Avacta. However if you think this is going to get approved based on research and data you haven’t lost out on anything really. Moving forward as efficacy is proven in more patient's from the upcoming trials as long as the data remains positive, the likely hood of success will start to reflect in the share price as we get to the tipping point where ordinary people start to believe in the data and this hits the MSM. Even then if the share price surges on the COS being approved, the people that still believe won’t be selling out. They are looking for that FDA approval and the long term strategic options that brings. Obviously human psychology dictates you would rather have your portfolio showing green rather than red but in this situation it’s irrelevant to the success or failure, the FDA doesn’t care about the share price. The Share price cares about the FDA.
Yep. Except I think the rich data showing consistently high efficacy across a significant number of patients is what will decide that Avacta is successful.
Been thinking the last few days. The people spreading fear are so focussed on the short term share price and think this we be a failure based on share price performance since Dec, rather than look at the science. They fail to mention this is still about whether AVA6000 gets approved by the FDA. (the data is exceptional so far)
So cutting all micro BS aside regarding placing etc the investment case is a pretty simple concept.
1. You believe in the independent data, and this will get approved by the FDA. (Share price appreciation will follow)
2. You don’t believe in the independent data, and this won’t get approved by the FDA. (Share price depreciation will follow)
Everything in between the above is just gambling on a trading position on any given week, you might win you might lose. However the investment case is very simple and the FDA is the one that will decide if Avacta are successful or not.