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He is a complete and utter twaat.
I think, I think, I think... He is full of chite.
He is here for 2 things.
To big himself up and talk down to people.
He is a gambler.
He is a disruptor.
He answer only what he wants.
He is unhappy because he has lost money.
Because his habit cannot stop.
Because he is the one who wants to control the narrative.
In the real world person to person he would be the type of person that would be a loner and an ex head teacher.
Tosspot
Truthfully I don’t get why anyone would be on this BB if they didn’t expect Avacta to succeed and get FDA approval. Bella had the correct idea I would also like to thank all these people trying to warn us things can go horribly wrong. 😊 To answer your question Timster, reading between the lines (loads of lines) windy got some investment here, however it’s been reduced over time and he thinks the science is more complex than what Avacta are making out and we still have significant risks. However he still hopes it comes good.
i have the bore filtered but just curious ice did he answer your simple question as to why he's here? looks like a no from your responses, just the same old essays full of more questions, lies and utter ******.
Will correct you I’m not assuming anything, I am here because I believe the data presented so far makes the COS of FDA approval more likely than not and that gives a good opportunity to invest for the long-term, based on my risk and return assessment. If I am wrong so be it, won’t have any regrets.
Possibly Ice, but the example of AGL is now in my experience.
The perhaps more fundamental issue that we see differently is you assume FDA approval is coming whereas I am not making that assumption. Maybe it gets limited approval subject to more tests, trials etc which leads to time delays and mass commercialisation?
Whereas you see the science as the be all and end all, to me its the commercialisation that is the be all and all. I can see various scenarios where the science is brilliant and works fantastically but current AVCT share holders dont profit from it.
Who knows? I am just looking at different scenarios. If I knew what was coming I would either bet the farm or sell up.
What I don’t get Windy is you say you have concerns with the science etc, it’s more complicated etc. doesn’t FDA approval completely solve these issues. Hence going full circle to my original point, it’s a pretty simple concept.
An armchair at full throttle.
Are Avacta aware of specific genetic variations in people's Fap expression and how will this affect our warhead targeting system? Could this make certain individuals hyper-responders?
Yes, it won't be as simple as looking at increased dose as success. How much benefit is there from the increased dose? Can we actually optmise doses for specific cancers? What can our warhead with Dox do when dosed with other drugs, dose it improve overall efficacy? What is the ideal time to commence dosing after diagnosis and does Avacta drug increase the therapy window for each conjugated chemotherapy where benefit can be had? Another success is just reducing the side-effects, thats a win? So, not simple.
I'm frustrated of the diagnostics side of the business, which could be cash generating before therapeutics are out.
Thompi,
There is no need to ask the questions.
This either works or it doesn't. Really penetrating questions that might throw up real doubt, will not be addressed.
Really good answers to those type of questions will occur because the data is there to prove it, and AS will highlight them anyway.
I think that humans have turned out to be a lot more nuanced that the rat trials.
I think the results in the early dosing levels produced intriguing potential insights but not the actual results expected or forecasted from the lab.
I think (without any knowledge of whats going on) that its a lot, a lot more complicated than just increasing the doses. I think the whole science of amounts used, length of time in the system, why some patients react differently to others, etc etc has led to head scratching and a certain amount of trial and error. (To me this explains the "unexpected surprise" of more cohorts causing more tweaking before the 5th level started causing the 3 month delay before it got going along with the TWD regime that basically came out of nowhere.) It also explains the time slipages and all the rest of it. I am not at this stage convinced that Dox works as Dox, as was quoted. I bet again its a tad more complicated than that.
I think this, (if I am right) patchy, inconsistent reaction amongst patients thus far, is the cause of the delays and why its always another year or two away form any definitive data release. This is not a criticism per se of the tech, but forever raising expectations via AS as he has done forever, leads to disappointment. (Its always better to under promise and over deliver.)
Still no peer review, and a suprisingly low cash raise at 50p suggests to me that this has not failed by any means,. but perhaps the promise of the tech might not be as universal great as first thought.
We shall see.
Wyn, there is a good opportunity to ask the type of questions you are raising at the upcoming webinar on the 10th April. I hope you do ask, I would be genuinely interested in the reply.
Dear Wyndrum,
Your analysis shows a deep understanding of Avacta and similar companies. I agree that the CEO must water down his statements, they are bordering on misleading and set us up for selling the news and a turbulent share price. AS needs to surprise with good news otherwise the share price will go down with any official release of good news as it is priced in.
1) AS don't feed false hopes.
2) AS let the market decide what is good news.
3) AS buy shares.
4) AS you now have a track record of not delivering, you must apologise to shareholders.
Wyndrum, Avacta is giving me Valirx vibes.
Thompi,
If you were so desperately ill, and you were told that the trial to date minimises side effects, has exceeded expectations and there is tumour shrinkage, exactly what do you think you have to lose by not taking part?
Like everyone keeps saying, Dox will be Dox. Its the side effects that are the problem.
So, I think its patchy, and I think they may be side effects that do surface on some patients depending on their condition or maybe the type of tumour they have?
I don't know but I think logically given we are where we are, its not the slam dunk as expected. Its more complicated.
Wyn, I disagree with your comment: “I also think that if the data was as compelling as we all have been told, getting patients for the trial would have taken, oh, |I don't know about 5 minutes?” The “5 minutes” patient enrollment reference may have been meant flippantly but it disrespectful to the patient’s who are very ill, and to quote Andrew Saunders are “very much doing an altruistic act in entering these trials…..”.
AS’s missed timelines may be frustrating if they are unrealistic, but these are people’s lives we are talking about, the screening process cannot be compromised for the sake of shareholders. The company and the oncologists also need to be selective in their choice of patients in order to get the optimum results for the trial.
Because originally, I thought the returns could be spectacular, (although less spectacular now, due to how events have unfolded).
When I buy a stock I expect it to go up, thats why I bought it, so when it does there is nothing remotely remarkable in that occurence.
Its when it doesn't that it becomes more interesting. What did I miss? what didn't I account for? Was I over optimistic? Did I misjudge the competition.? etc etc.
This stock although on paper being high risk seemed to have/has technology through the platform that minimises the risk of failure and at the same time being a platform, accelerates the time to market.
I was advised to look at AVCT when the pandemic broke and the LFT was going to be the saviour of the world. So the returns looked good (to put it mildly).
Since then there seems to have been a lot of wasted time and money and a lack of direction, or maybe more fairly, AVCT tried to do too much too soon and lost focus, resulting in the wasted time and money.
My personal problem with the stock is that AS keeps saying it will be soon for the great results and its always gets put back and its always the "next 12 months" that it will be proven. So I hang in, but now being introduced to this type of stock and reading and visiting other similar BB's they all seem to have identikit CEO'S. Basically its hard to believe what they say.
So I have waited this long, I have trimmed my expectations and therefore my holding to try and balance how events are unfolding.
Will April release the data we all want to hear/see? Well, it should do, just because of the amount of data available to be released, but if is were so good surely the cash raise could have waited and coincided with these results? In which case I am expecting a steady as she goes type event. ie, "encouraging, more work and testing needed" etc etc.
fwiw, I think, that all this "exceeded expectations" is a load of crap and typical AS BS to keep interest up. I think the market thinks so to. I also think that if the data was as compelling as we all have been told, getting patients for the trial would have taken, oh, |I don't know about 5 minutes?
So I think it clearly has promise, the platform works, but can it be commercialised at a cost and speed to market that makes this worth while. If it can then the returns will be great, but thus far it has behaved like every other high risk Bio Pharma. Lots of talk but little return. Therefore I have a holding commensurate with my perceived risk.
Thompi
Thanks. Didn’t check the Vox interview
Rab
I think we are on the same page.. Just have to hope the FUD’s disappear soon, it generally ruins the Isa chat board when they are here. I have boxed most of them but still they monopolise the chat with their inane comments.
Dear Wyndrum,
"The animal division has been sold, it seems the DX is up for sale, the LFT affimer route has proved uncommercial"- why is this, is this because CEO is unable or struggling to hire talent? In the UK it's slim pickings for talent but it can be done.
And we should listen to you because......?
ICE.
Can you copy and paste a single thing you've said (on this board) in the last 6 months that's come even remotely close to what's actually happened?
Actually that's not fair.
The last 24 months.
Timster: Of course I have - as have most. However, Ice has asked a fundamental simple question which Wynbore has actually never answered. I think Smith is an utter waste of space and should be binned soonest - along with CFO. Nevertheless - I do believe in the science which is why I'm still here - albeit utterly frustrated with our inept CEO who is clearly totally out of his depth when it comes to monetising the science. If I didn't believe in the science I wouldn't be here - why would you be (apart from if you were paid to be here of course or some similarly malign reason)?
Ffs please make it stop, how have you not worked out why wynbore is here yet!!!
Paid to be here. You lovely lot still can’t seem to get it.
Wynbore: '..why are you here if you don’t believe Avacta can deliver?' I'm actually with Ice on this one - you need to answer this question - time to cut the waffle and answer what is a very straightforward question.
Windy this is a pointless discussion. No one really knows how much Avacta will be worth on FDA approval of AVA6000. Big Pharma will have a good idea though. The general consensus is with a more targeted less toxic version of Dox you would assume the old current Dox would be made redundant over time. Especially considering they could potentially administer 2-3 times more cycles and give it to patients that can’t handle the current toxicity of Dox now. Is AVA6000 a billion dollar plus drug on approval?. I would say yes it is. Does this lead on to other potential drugs in the pipeline? I would say yes it does. Current mkt cap is what 180million odd give or take. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out if a company has an approved billion dollar plus drug a year and a potential drug platform in the making the Mkt cap won’t be 180 million odd. It’s going to be way north of that. Not getting into specific scenarios with a magic calculator. Just purely on the facts of less toxicity more cycles this will substantially increase Avacta mkt cap. That’s obviously imo you may think differently. However you haven’t actually presented any facts on potential revenues etc yourself on approval. You are just concentrating on past events, again I will ask you this question directly, why are you here if you don’t believe Avacta can deliver?