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Chance of success still at 10%
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Valuation We value Avacta using a sum-of-the-parts, which includes a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of the lead clinical asset AVA6000, an aggregate rNPV for the remainder of the proprietary platforms (pre|CISION and Affimer), and a DCF valuation for the Diagnostics business, which are netted against operating costs. We include current net cash excluding the Convertible Bond (CB), as we assume this will be settled in shares. Our valuation has been updated to reflect the March £31.1m gross (£29.4m net) fundraise (including a revised estimate of current net cash post the fundraise; end-March cash was £38m), preliminary full year results (which includes our updated operating cost forecasts), and has been rolled forwards in time. With the pivotal efficacy study for AVA6000 unlikely to start until at least 2025, and allowing time for study completion and regulatory review, we conservatively now assume a first AVA6000 launch in 2027. Together, these changes result in a small uptick in our valuation to £675m (from £672m), diluted to 188p per share based on the increased share count post the fundraise (or 175p/share fully diluted for future shares to settle the CB). An overview of our valuation is in Exhibit 6. "
Link nit working Hurst can you post the content
https://*********************/companies/uk/other/avacta-group-plc/research/trinity-delta/avacta-data-and-clinical-progress-validate-pre-cision-platform/33_c91687bb-d808-4749-b299-6bd74592852a
Front page of the Guardian newspaper hails another ‘holy grail’ in cancer treatment. Excellent news for cancer sufferers but would be even better to see mainstream media having AVACTA on the front pages!
So do I Derek. Appreciate the compassion.
And Board changes to come...who and where from...
Bein
Because true seasoned investors show no compassion, laugh in the face of high risk, put all their money into one share and blow the holiday fund to boot.
You really crack me up. I hope for your sake this comes good in a big way in a really short timescale.
Truthfully just a waiting game now, got more important things to do, Destiny 2 final shape out so getting my pvp on with the PS5. That won’t make much sense to the boomers, however gaming come on leaps and bonds since space invaders and pac man. Later dudes have fun 🤩. 💯💯
Exactly timster. We know what’s on the agenda and most of what will happen and there aren’t any important issues beyond the usual process.
It's the first time CC has had to lay out her stall.
If she wanted to draw a line between what had gone before and the hoped for future that would be the time.
Dr Smith went for a reason.
Perhaps we'll know why after the AGM?
Because it was all going so fantastically well?
usual ******, big up the agm to be a massive meeting called for a big reveal.
it's not, it's a boring agm.
Yes the AGM RNS/statement should make interesting reading.
Quite (American ‘meaning’) a few ‘other matters’ to achieve a ‘quate’ (old English) state. For example - ARA Page 12 Chaiman’s Statement …
“We are also aware of the need to continue to evolve the Board of Directors to best suit the needs of an AIM-listed clinical stage cancer treatments company, to strategically manage the Diagnostics Division for the best outcome for our staff, customers and shareholders alike, and to create financial optionality with respect to the company bond. The Board of Directors and I are excited about what is to come for Avacta”.
Recent updates suggest science looking great, now for the commercials.
GLA
Evening ICE, ref your post “…..I would expect a full update before the AGM especially on the 3w trials and possibly cohort 1 of the 2w trials…”
I hope you are right and I am sure we will some get some form of an update on the trials, but I guess it’s what you define as a “full update”. We may get an abridged version but CC reiterated in yesterday’s webinar that an update on the AVA6000 clinical data would be H2.
I’m not trying to be pedantic, but I also think that a chunk of the AGM may well be dedicated to ‘other matters’.
Energy - I’m amazed at the compassion they show. Assay upon essay about how this is high risk. Have a balanced portfolio. Don’t invest more than you can afford.
That narrative alone undermines their position as ‘investors’. Wind up merchants.
Wyndrum
Has said that he’s a shareholder because he believes his will come good but not that it is inevitable.
I totally agree and that is why to make Avacta a large percentage of one’s investment portfolio is foolhardy.
On the other point, given then the stock market and the government are all so untrustworthy, it’s lucky that the pharmaceutical industry is pure as the driven snow
thanks for your compassion, its not quite as good as pl75 who said karma is a ***** as though the death of a 30 year old with the resulting loss to the rest of her children and husband is somehow the universe righting your opinion of me.
its despicable.
and again how many of these posts have not mentioned my response to someone saying they thought the sp was manipulated, but simply gone off at tangents to have a pop at me?
as though i care what your opinion is when you so show little humanity.
That’s why they call it a patent ‘cliff’, it’s a huge drop.
Massive potential for Avacta to license precision to existing drugs to enable patent renewal AND improve patient lives AND improve outcomes.
My one and only green box back on the scene other posters mentioned he had a bereavement can’t be a.rsed unblocking him to read, doesn’t Tombstone teeth give any of these trolls compassionate leave.
They would be better off collecting trolleys than being a troll.
With them. ! I know it’s not easy To do that because they like tag team !
Nope I went back over this thread, definitely no personal attack before you launched into a long winded repetition on how MM's never manipulate the share price. Again, why do you hang around this particular share almost exclusively? Care to explain the advantage of trading avacta versus some other crapster share on AIM?
Avacta has always had huge potential from all the way back in 2020 when I first bought:
The LFT but mainly because it was a better tech, based on Affimers that were easily developed and changed to counter the threat of the ever mutating Covid virus.
But of course that wasn't all there was to Affimers was there, they were like Monoclonal antibodies on better!
Cheaper, more specific, more robust and smaller to reach the places even Monoclonal antibodies couldn't reach.
Just think about the total addressable market there!
And here we are over 4 years later and Affimers? Where are they? Never mind the whole LFT thing.
And then AVA6000 etc etc.
To be fair AVA6000 appears to still be in development so although the share price isn't exactly what you'd expect it to be if the ongoing trial was 'smashing it' it might still come good?
Time will tell but usually Share Prices approach all time lows for a reason and to think otherwise can be a risky decision.
Perhaps better to be told categorically that the majority of suitable patients are responding well or excellently to AVA600?
That's what I plan to do.
Well, I don't know why this is about me when all I did was put my view with a lucid explanation of why the SP was not, imo, the subject of price manipulation. I then responded quite fairly I thought as to why I am not in fact Disingenuous at all, with my views.
But as always, rather than offer viable alternatives to my views, you just avoid it and make spurious and unsupported claims about my motives.
And thats why I end posting as often as I do.
If you stopped with the personal BS about me I would not need to respond, would i?
Basically because my unpopular views have some sort of reasonable logic, rather than accept it or argue coherently against them, you just make up stuff and avoid the the actual topic I respond to, leading to this response.
Who's to blame for that?
I ask again, why the fascination with this stock wyndrum? 107/130 posts in the past 30 days.... We'll keep coming back to your fascination until it's explained.
BP Need to replace that amount of product due to lose exclusivity. Apologies if posted before
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/pharma-awaits-fed-relief-1t-firepower-spend-biotech-innovation-report