Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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What’s the right price for this share? . Referencing my last post here, in 2016 they only had $51bn in AUM far less than now in sterling terms but the shares started that year at 2,40 and ended it over 4 pounds. In that time they have paid out 6 years at over 16p per year In dividends pretty much a pound. Who knows when the tide will turn but emerging markets will come back into favour sooner or later.
Asset managers are typically geared to AUM, down 12.5% in a single quarter of which around 70% is client withdrawals is not a good result….
Although when the tide turns it will likely come in quickly….regular buys are probably the best approach here.
Ashmore said total assets under management dropped from $64.0bn at the end of June to $56.0bn in the third quarter, with the increase in net outflows predominantly stemming from institutional investors reducing exposure in the external debt, local currency, and blended debt themes.
and the share price is going up
Too early to say….just highly volatile at present…
When does Coombes want to retire to a tax haven? As he has a significant stake the timing of his exit is the best guide to the future and a deal.
yes but look at the two weeks share price recovery , it is excellent
Maybe after October the CCP will be forced to resolve Evergrande et al somehow or other, probably brutal to foreign bond-holders. When it happens the noise and shock might hit ASHM.L again. Well, it's the only reason I don't double-down here.
up and away ,nice
i didn't see it rallying like this ,keeping the dividend helped
Not so sure about a 'bear trap' .
Chart now shows a double-bottom, which normally would indicate a strong recovery. Nothing is certain in this game, but barring a serious fall-out from Wall Street, I'm a bit more optimistic. Wall Street has proven surprisingly resilient so far, and Evergrande still has not officially gone bust, despite all the financial forecasters predicting a Chinese meltdown.
i am looking for 230p
It seems likely the average AUM will be significantly worse in 22/23 hitting fee income….although it is in USD so any further weakness in £v$ will offset lost income….the greater challenge may be remuneration if wages rise significantly ahead of AUM growth from here.
With the shares down 50% and AUM 32% it would seem some worsening in operational performance is already in the price….management sound bullish and seem to have the dividend covered at present which is probably why the sp has risen today.
Strangely I would probably buy if this rises to 230p in the next month for fear of missing out on a strong recovery…..but I don’t see a good reason to buy for now….
(Sharecast News) - Asset manager Ashmore Group said on Friday that assets under management and earnings slipped in the twelve months ended 30 June as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and inflationary concerns led to widespread risk aversion.
Assets under management declined by 32% year-on-year to $64.0bn, with the majority of the movement attributable to negative investment performance of $16.6bn and net outflows of $13.5bn.
Average assets under management were 7% lower than in the prior year at $83.6bn.
Ashmore said reported EBITDA had fallen from £195.7m in the 2020-21 trading year to £122.3m twelve months later, while reported operating profits dropped from £192.9m to £119.2m.
Pre-tax profits also slipped from £193.8m to £118.4m and revenues contracted from £296.6m to £262.5m.
The FTSE 250-listed group also reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of 18.7p and maintained its final dividend to give a total full-year dividend of 16.9p per share.
IMO - more like bear trap, results show AUM is materially down (and profit).
I suspect a lot depends on China relations with the west.
More decoupling spells danger for EMs.
All asset managers are under fee pressure most of the domestic players reporting this week have lost around 12% AUA. Mostly through investment losses rather than client withdrawals.
ASHM was losing significant volume through client withdrawals, until that changes I consider this on a downward path.
ASHM seem to be making something of a strong rally having been in the doldrums since early Jan 21. Although it's too early to call this it's risen by nearly 19% since its low of 186 a few weeks ago with the 'up' days far outnumbering the 'down' days,which has rarely occurred over the past 20 months or so. The sp has also just broken through its 50 day exp ma., although when it previously did this a few times especially this time last year the sp sharply retreated within a few days.
Having recently produced worrying quarterly results, with a hint of further bad news to come it's difficult to see why the market has suddenly become enthusiastic about ASHM - or is this just a bear trap? Somehow I get the feeling it might be different this time. But you would have to be a brave person to risk a sizeable investment in this share at the moment.
Y, I'm still internally debating a double-down here. There's a Patrick Boyle utube that brings up a depressing EMs aspect. It's not just Evergrande, or even China RE at large. It's more about China having become a kind of "alternative IMF" to a throng of 3rd-world countries, who, are uh ... broke. Never mind the Fed tightening, this "alt-IMF" has been sucking in more $ than it's been lending out for the last couple years. Anyway search Pat Boyle and see for yourselves.
…the historical comparison…..EMs are volatile and sentiment can change quickly.
It will be interesting to compare the presentation of 11 Feb 16 with the next results to see what is different 6.5 years on, then we can compare management analysis of the situation and take our views….I would like to be optimistic about EMs, but the geopolitics between US and Russia and US/ china are worse…and the blow back on EMs could be severe (Eg Sri Lanka, which has made its own mistakes but is heavily affected by the strong dollar and increase in fuel costs)…..let’s see what management says and what the market makes of the results before commenting further.
Thanks for
Given the current market it could well go lower but look back to feb 2016, share price dropped from the 260’s to 210’s in anticipation of a big drop in AUM released feb 2016 half year results. Drop in assets reported down 18pc from 58.9bn USD to 48bn. Eps dropped but dividend held at same as current dividend. Within 6 months share price was above £3.60 and on upward trend. With the Brexit vote later that summer there was a lot of uncertainty and drop in pound helped sterling earnings but compared to now when we have 64bn AUM down from 78bn, and the likelihood the latest share price looks a bargain for long term investors convinced of the merits of emerging markets.
Look at the 3m chart…..it says declining….some might say the market reaction was under done….while there was no profit warning which is usually rewarded with a 15-25% drop, it is clear fee income will fall and will be down significantly in Q4 and for much f next year.
Perhaps much of this is baked into the current SP but I would not se surprised if there is another down leg when the results are published.
The market always overshoots so this will likely go down further before it reCovers on better flows and performance…..and it will eventually as emerging markets will return to favour, when and by how much are the unknowns….
This could well go much lower in the intervening period.
Interesting snap back 193 => 200 in early trading. Someone out there thinks that sell-off was overdone.
Ouch. Anyone know how this compares to the whole LSE market for asset managers? Obviously there's a massive tide going out ATM.
"the exceptional valuations and relatively healthy fundamentals currently evident in Emerging Markets provide attractive opportunities for long-term investors"
No reasons to panic for any long-term holders. Only a matter of time until the money flows back it.
AUM down 18%.
Caused by poor investment performance -10% and customer outflows -8%..
The latter figure worries me more….customers withdrawing mandates shows a lack of confidence in asset management capability…damaging future prospects.
Trading update is listed for later this week…..AUM and client cash flows will be instructive….recent share price movements are down as are many other asset managers.
No reason to buy.