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Heh sure! You get nearly twice as much of it for your $ now as you did about 10 months ago! Of course, exactly what it is you're getting is not obvious.
Think the sp is more likely to start with a 1 than a 3
Anyone with a positive case about ASHM?
APUL, nice history but apart from history repeating a Russian crisis what are you saying about the prospects for ASHM?
I think they have a problem with their reputation at stake…..the Ft published an article which hinted at a central arrogance / deceit at the core that 3 guys in London could do a whole lot better than competitors with hundreds of local analysts…..shocking if true.
Coombs and much of his team were former executives at
Grindlays Bank, which the ANZ bought in the early 1980s.
Coombs had worked his way up through the bank,
establishing the London-based emerging markets division
in 1992 and reachinq the lofty position of global head of
markets in July 1997. The London investment banking
division (which included the emerging markets business)
contributed 10% of ANZ's half-yearly profit in 1997.
But the $78 million loss the emerging markets business
recorded as a result of the Russian crisis effectively en ded
Coombs' career at ANZ.
Chief executive John McFarlane, who took over ANZ in the
midst of the Asian financial crisis in September 1997,
decided in September 1998 that the bank's international
forays had gone too far. He set about de-risking the bank
by selling the London investment bank, withdrawing from
ANZ's emerging market investments and focusing
squarely on the relatively st able Australian market.
In March 1999, Mark Coombs led a management buyout of
ANZ emerging market funds management business. The
division - which Coombs folded into his own vehicle,
Ashore Group - managed around $US500 million at the
time.
Although the precise sales price was never disclosed (ANZ
would only say at the time that the amount was "not
material") it is believed that Coombs paid somewhere
bet ween $600,000 and $1 million.
Whatever the exact amount, it was the bargain of the
century. Free of the shackles of the ANZ. Coombs
immediately began building Ashore into a powerhouse.
The business grew rapidly as fund managers' appetites for
some exposure to emerging markets returned. By 2000,
Ashmore has started m an aging emerging markets public
equities with the launch of the Ashmore Emerging
Economy Portfolio. By 2002, the company had established
20 pooled funds, segregated accounts and collateralised
marketplaces
Sure, restructuring in hard times seems prudent but there
is always a danger that top-notch future earners could end
up getting the chop. JAMES THOMSON reveals how the
ANZ Bank's decision to de-risk led it to sell a $4 billion
business for less than $1 mi In the coming weeks ANZ chief executive Mike Smith will
unveil a new business structure for the bank.
Smith has had a bumpy ride since taking up the top job in
October 2007 and at times the bank's problems must
have seemed neverending.
There have been writedowns related to the sub-prime
crisis, the disastrous capitulation of margin lenders Opes
Prime and Chimaera, troubles at Tricom and exposures to
a string of struggling companies, including Bab**** &
Brown, Centro and Bill Express.
No wonder Smith wants to make some serious changes,
and reportedly axe hundreds of executives.
But as ANZ adopts its new strategy, it should think back
to the last great re-making of the company under former
chief executive John McFarlane in 1998.
The story of how ANZ sold its London-based emerging
markets business for less than $1 million, only to see it
become a $4 billion investment giant run by a former ANZ
executive who is now worth around $2 billion, is a
cautionary tale for every axe-swinging CEO.
The story starts back in August 1998. The Spice Girls are
riding high on the music charts and audiences around the
world are packing out cinemas to watch Saving Private
Ryan.
But over in the offices of ANZ's emerging market business
in London, it's doubtful that many traders were heading to
the movies for a relaxing evening. Financial markets were
in chaos and their bonuses were going down the toilet
quickly.
The team, led by ANZ's head of markets Mark Coombs,
had been caught out badly by the Russian financial crisis,
caused by the rapid devaluation of the ruble. The losses
were mounting.
Btw I like emerging markets and hold a high weighting….but when they go wrong they tend to go disastrously wrong.
I was looking to buy in around £4, then £3, now nearly £2…..I would prefer to see a clear bottom before buying in now. There has been too much uncertainty around the levels of risk this asset manager takes with client money to buy in.
I would beg to differ…the bottom could be some way off. It does depend on your perspective of profits and the future prospects.
Jupiter is On a similar AUM of £60bn r $78bn.
It’s mcap is 1.16bn or only 75% of ashm.
Ashm may have an emerging markets bias and higher long term growth prospects, however we don’t know yet how it’s high bets on evergrande and Ukraine/Russia will affect its reputation. It looks like some institutional money has walked away in Q1 and market movement s have been adverse in $ terms.
This could keep falling for a while…180-150p I reckon before it levels. Then a £2 takeover is possible….if Mr Combes can stomach selling at that price.
I have had this share for over 8 years and very luckily sold out just as the pandemic became a reality at £5.60 in feb 20. I have been buying back in starting at £3.00 and buying is stages to ensure a good average. If you check the below data
Assets under management and share price(approximately on release date in April)
2015-$61.1bn - £3.00
2016 $51.3bn. £2.90
2017 $55.9bn. £3.50
2018 $76.5bn. £3.90
2019 $85.3bn. £4.50
2020 $76.8bn. £3.65
2021 $89.9bn £4.00
2022 $78.3bn. £2.23 as I write
This is really beaten up considering the above data and I feel that sooner or later the bottom is in sight.
The situation at evergrande seems to be getting worse.
Banks have seized deposits, the audit is extended and the 21 accounts delayed with the shares suspended. This one of the largest business reorganisations ever that they need to pull off.
There may be value in the bonds, but how and when that plays out is hard to tell.
You could argue that the investments are being made at bargain prices. We could see a rapid SP rise when the dust settles.
Seems like ashm are taking a lot more risk with client funds than others.
Overweight Russia and Ukraine as well as evergrande.
This s going to hurt performance…then clients will move funds away…..once the brand is badly tarnished Mr Coombs will need to sell out……can’t see Ashm surviving in its current form….fire sale candidate in 6m. I will be avoiding.
Wow "falling knife" isn't quite right.. "slow puncture".
NILSy 30 => 3 in a few days. ASHM.L big holder. Another Evergrande?
It's cheap. And it can get cheaper.
Got in at 255p yesterday. At this price I’m assuming this pays around 6 percent divi. Anyway, a very cheap price when you look at the 3yr chart.
Today's result aren't that bad, I would say they held well all, but there's a lag, so worst to come over next year or two.
recovered yesterday losses and some more , nice
Plenty more pain to come from evergrande.
Today’s AUM values will be showing some of the effect of written down valuations and exits fearing future write downs.
This plc is effectively controlled by the CEO. At what point does he want an exit? If he holds out too long he may only have a small fortune left.
Interesting piece on the World Service last night, but not showing anywhere on the BBC website. The suggestion was that later this year the Chinese government will take over the company, and the creditors will be left with nothing. I am sure ASHM will not be the only UK entity impacted, and there is perhaps the chance that this will be the start the dominoes falling. The CPC would probably see themselves as insulated from the worst of this, as the debt is largely held abroad, and the domestic impacts can be largely absorbed by government intervention. Could this be the start of a big Bear run?
It should not surprise anyone that insurers take a different approach to evergrande than asset managers.
Insurers will need to use their capital to offset the fall in bond prices….asset managers will invest other people’s money at other people’s risk if they think it is a good investment and they get their AUM fee. Of course they do need to find investors willing to take these risks which is why reputation is important…..it may take along time to know whether ASHM has made good calls on evergrande. Only then will it’s reputation be burnished or tarnished.
I can't believe they know some secret about the Evergrande trash. If they had any idea what they're doing, they would have made a clear and precise statement on where they're at. That they haven't done that concerns me more than the original blunder of excessively exposing themselves.
This is well worth a read. Either ASHM know something nobody else does, or they are throwing good money after bad.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3774990-ashmore-group-bulks-up-on-evergrande-debt-as-cash-crunch-persists?utm_source=investing.com&utm_medium=referral
I have sold up, but will return when the mess is sorted.
When full details on some £400m bond investment in Evergrande is published, Ashmore may need to write down which will put pressure on share price and may go below £3.00. Yesterday's rise looks like dead cat bounce as there was no news for nearly 6% rise before drifting down.
The problem with evergrande and other Chinese property debt is not the write off (borne by client funds) rather credibility of ASHM credit analysis capability in their area of EM bonds…..
Are they experts or do they unwittingly just take more risk with other peoples money?
No reason to buy ashm or invest in their funds until the situation becomes clearer….so expect the drift down to continue or worsen..