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Started: RobertoLarcos, 19 Jun 2024 13:03
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 20 Jun 2024 11:39
*It said underlying earnings in FY24-25 are set to be "significantly" higher than the previous two years as it cuts costs and slashes stock levels. Chief executive Jose Antonio Ramos Calamonte said 2023-24 "is about taking the necessary action to get us to that path".*
Get back to the office and make this happen!
Hope that the ending is not the same as the book/movie...
Started: Analyst_London, 17 Jun 2024 12:46
Last post: Reardon95, 17 Jun 2024 17:42
Nice recovery today :)
Makes sense.. £85m of the £130m I believe already spent in H1 (from CF) - so I guess £45m in H2.
Well a £100m WC swing would certainly be a relief, albeit one-off
The business normally has robust Cash Flow from Ops in 2H primarily because of the swing in WC from negative to positive. For the past three years, CF from Ops was £188m, £26m, and £119m in 2H. So you are right that the cash flow will primarily come from WC swing.
It says it wants inventories at 2020 levels which is £530m although it says £600m which it is now at. I reckon it will bring down inventories further as it exits low margin/loss making product lines.
The company has guided that capex will be £130m this year versus £178m last year.
In short, I reckon it will be: 1) seasonal WC swing; 2) further structural inventory reductions, and 3) lower capex.
Assuming H2 revenue of say £1.7bn and EBIT margin of (say) 3% that's about £50m - and that's optimistic. Then you have c.£45m Capex and £20m interest. You'd need a big working capital swing to get a positive cash flow of that magnitude, I think.
What am I missing?
Hi Roberto,
I reckon we could be on for £100m for the full year.
https://asos-12954-s3.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/files/3217/1139/0009/HY24_Trading_Statement_FINAL_250324.pdf
According to the following website, consensus sell side analysts have it at £76m for full fiscal year.
https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ASOS-PLC-4003595/finances/
Started: RobertoLarcos, 1 May 2024 07:55
Last post: Analyst_London, 17 Jun 2024 12:29
I am happy for Calamonte to stay on but I do think the next results need to show strong positive FCF and a return to stable revenues in FY25.
FY24 is the last year for clearing the inventory and exiting unprofitable product lines. I do not think the FY24 guidance is tough hurdle for them to meet but Calamonte's job would be in jeopardy if we had a "profit" warning or weak FY25 guidance.
I have seen retailers restructure before (Victoria's Secret) and it is a painful exercise for investors. I think Calmonte is doing all the right things and he does have an excellent career pedigree (McKinsey consultant to Inditex).
If the share price continues to drift down, then I would expect management to take some proactive steps in giving good news to the market. I suspect share price will remain weak but will rebound before the results.
UK markets are a shorters paradise.
Expect an attack to bring this down to new lows. £2.50ish.
Interest rates going down will not save this.
Any share with lots of debt being punished and priced for bankruptcy.
This is not going up anymore on good news but does go further down on any slightest bad news.
Ah well, nevermind. :)
Thought you knew of some actual news then lol
Shorts up, SP in free fall, Calamonte in the hideout
Why, what news has come out to suggest this needs to be brought up?
Last post: blablabla1, 17 Jun 2024 09:20
UK voted for Brexit, over 100 K drivers short. See the same with our incoming import products we source from UK for our BNL, Germany, France business. Since Brexit costs went up and service down. Anyway, i foresee the equity markets in the to go up soon. There is simply to much negativity in the media, never a sign of a top. US will lead the rally and i anticipate the EU and UK to join.
ASOS website:
UK DELIVERY UPDATE
We're really busy right now so we've had to bring the cut-off time for Next Day Delivery forward to 21:00
Or maybe half of the work force are using annual leave and are away abroad… ;) I ordered last night for next day delivery, my parcel should have arrived between 6 and 7pm this evening it’s now 8:37pm and I’m still waiting, I wish they would ditch Everi, and I’m a premium customer, I suppose it’s the couriers fault, but still… this is why customers get annoyed and go to the high street.
I’ve got £20k invested here, I do have second thoughts sometimes.
Started: hodgson777, 14 Jun 2024 20:09
Last post: simon1367, 15 Jun 2024 00:07
I've spent time avoiding the forum due to recent arguments which quite frankly do not add value to the debate. Given the political climate and the possible volatility over the next couple of months, I've pondered whether to call it a day or to persevere for an eventual turnaround. There are more returns to be made elsewhere, but I'm still loathe to sell at a near low, so I will 'hold' ftb. A few random thoughts: Firstly I remain sceptical about the management despite their efforts to turn the business around; admittedly some actions they've taken are positive but Calamonte has a lot to prove still. It's always jam tomorrow with him. Someone said that Barker has put a lot of his money in. I repeat; this is not, strictly speaking, 'his' money but his clients who are using his hedge fund Camelot & relying on his expertise. He also did it to get himself a position on the board as a non-exec. It was defensive measure. He clearly is maneuvering in order to gain influence for when the crunch occurs between Polsven and Ashley and any other predator. Ashley may need to take up physical shares (given his derivative positions) if the SP remains around 3.50. Do not think that he will go above 30% because all he needs to do at the time is to sell a few to keep under the limit.The shares are going nowhere and will remain in the 3.40 to 4.00 kind of area unless the market is spooked by political changes. Shorts are still too high and indicates that the markets are far from convinced that a turnaround will happen anytime soon. Declared shorts need to reduce to below 3% for the SP to move positively. There are many hurdles in front of them; mostly associated with debt. Asos made one big mistake initially. Excessive stock. The old investor, who you probably know, said ''rule one, never lose money. Rule two, never forget rule one''. Well, Asos are losing money. This bad weather is not going to help, so unless the weather improves, I expect a disappointing update in late summer and a possible cash raise. If that happens, we, as small shareholders, could be scre*wed again. I am 'neutral' on the India deal. There's not enough detail provided to see how beneficial it is. Ambani of Reliance Industries always strikes a hard bargain and the devil may be in the detail. They're a strong partner yes, but this 'exclusive deal' to sell Asos label brands in India is low on detail. Don't forget that Reliance has a habit of signing loads of 'exclusive' deals with other fashion operators like Gap etc. Shein is unsurprisingly also looking at India. Plus, Reliance have full discretion as to what retail channels they use, or do not use, to sell Asos products. And the physical 'Asos outlets' proposed; who pays the cost for setting up? Is this a franchise arrangement, in which case does Asos get a premium? I remain to be convinced. Presently, I sense the SP drifting south unless takeover fever emerges.
Hodgson.. 15th or 16th October I believe.
Hi guys, would anyone be able to tell me when the next trading update is?
Started: jamesss, 14 Jun 2024 11:45
Last post: flatliners, 14 Jun 2024 13:51
Any listed company with huge debt is massively down in the last few days.
Interest rates not coming down now or just a minuscule amount ( 2 rate cuts)
Case in point.
What does that have to do with ASOS specifically? That affects US equity valuations but across the board - so I would understand that comment if you were i vested in S&P 500 for example. Now its just desperate hope that the Fed will save the company
Sure that isn't a serious question, but warm and fuzzy bro that I am, I'll oblige:
https://www.investopedia.com/fed-pivot-definition-6748840
Pivot meaning?
Started: HereKittyKitty, 13 Jun 2024 09:27
Last post: facester, 14 Jun 2024 09:05
Think positive! We could have all invested our money in SDRY!!
I'm here to help people like Celtic007 who need therapy to recover from the mental stress of financial loss.
I'm here. Hit me! Let it all out!
Roberto reminds me of that medication...thrush.....a irritating hunt . Talks nonsense, not invested but shorting which is fine, but no, he wants to scare others to sell, to feed his bastard offspring.
It's a strange account. Originally, I wasn't go to respond, but some reasonable points had been made recently. Now it seems to have reverted back to simple trolling, which is best ignored I think, personally.
The ship
Started: RobertoLarcos, 10 Jun 2024 19:04
Last post: sj74, 12 Jun 2024 10:02
That's why we are invested as we believe it will come to fruition but yeah you'd think they wouldn't be to happy letting 30% of the company go for peanuts. MA opportunistic purchasing. Can't blame him! After all we did the same lol..
*With the forecast significantly marked improvement and return to growth. Frasers will end up very close to Povsens holding total.*
Just goes to show that poor management for a relatively short period (couple of years out of 20) can have huge implications for major holders (as well as us lowly PIs). If what you suggest happens AP must be furious.
Now that's when things will get interesting here.. With the forecast significantly marked improvement and return to growth. Frasers will end up very close to Povsens holding total.
*Boohoo are doing the same so I wonder if it's being done on advice from their big shareholders I e. Frasers and Camelot. I suspect so.*
Agree - possibly even our man Barker (he may grab a few more if the price gets low enough). Like you say, perhaps both Boo and ASOS will go back to quarterly updates once back in growth and profit. I assume Frasers reports quarterly.
I guess the next 'event' on the horizon is the expiry of the next lot of put options that will come into play in August. Way things are heading, Frasers may end up with a bunch more physical shares.
Boohoo are doing the same so I wonder if it's being done on advice from their big shareholders I e. Frasers and Camelot. I suspect so.
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 11 Jun 2024 16:59
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 11 Jun 2024 16:59
Increased by 0.11, yesterday for anyone that's interested.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 9 Jun 2024 19:28
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 10 Jun 2024 17:06
If they're set on entering the UK market with their feet on the floor that is.
LMR - up slightly.
Well, listing is expected to go ahead this week - I heard on LBC, on Friday.
If it doesn't, I'm sure whether Labour will try and block it, when they get in.
Personally, I'm amazed it's got this far - even with the dia straights the LSE is racing towards.
But yes, if they are blocked you would think they would try to reverse into ASOS or BOO.
If Shein are blocked from listing then it's game on for a takeover.
Shorts at 5 % now...was that the last figure?
Farage now calling out the Shein listing:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/08/nigel-farage-sheins-london-listing-is-a-very-bad-idea/
Bad publicity for PLT who are now charging for returns - maybe bleeding over to here.
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 8 Jun 2024 20:19
Good
The close above 380 will have helped I think
See what next week
Brings
The beginning.....
Hotting up here - short reductions tell you everything.
5 quid incoming v soon.
Good news shorts closing as they are doomed to failure.
Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0030927254/
Hello Kitty says Hodl Yoda to infinity and beyond.
Please do your own research as always and follow FCA guidelines.
Shorts down to 4.96%
Started: west6809, 8 Jun 2024 10:03
Last post: west6809, 8 Jun 2024 10:03
Asos sample sale is back if anyone fancies a bargain:
https://www.asossamplesale.com/
Not much left by the looks of it.
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 6 Jun 2024 16:39
Last post: sj74, 6 Jun 2024 20:02
Makes perfect sense 😂😉
" But I do agree it could be a while and not the easing cycle before huge against come.. hey ho :)"
Agreed Sj, it's more the signal it sends than the actual reduction.
Feck knows what the last sentence said lol
I think it will potentially have an effect in that the rate reduction cycle will have begun thereby these types of stocks will gradually see the sector rotation start to happen after going sideways. Along with a turnaround that (hopefully) goes to plan will see this start a gradual upwards move... But I do agree it could be a while and not the easing cycle before huge against come.. hey ho :)
Started: RobertoLarcos, 3 Jun 2024 13:48
Last post: jamesss, 6 Jun 2024 16:41
We have easy broken the 200 DMA with a large spike towards close which is always welcomed.
https://ibb.co/6H9vdYS
As regards your previous post KYK, I think the confirmation of a turn around will bring both new investors from afar and therefore a higher SP, re-entry to the ftse 250 and no doubt tempt potential take over bids being placed.
We are in a good place.
Shein is a problem for ASOS - no doubt about it. But there are enough customers to go around. ASOS doesn't need a huge market share to make money. It just needs to maintain reasonable levels of sticky customers (which it has now) and profit from them via relatively small margins 5/6%. £150-200m profit, from £3bn revenues would see this SP much higher than it is now. And crucially allow it to aggressively reduce debt.
EU exports is an annoying self-inflicted wound. However, a trade deal with India and a closer relationship with Europe - both of which might turn up under a new gov should mitigate some of this damage. I also saw recently that freight costs are rising again due to the red sea debacle. So, this might not help matters. I did also read that ASOS has shifted to more localized suppliers.
Risks abound, but I'm not sure Shein alone is the threat some make it out to be.
Also not sure I agree that a consolidation phase is going to put those eying a take over off. I suspect anyone with ASOS in their sights will be hanging on for more evidence of the turnaround. Obviously, better to buy the co on the way up than on the way down.
GLA
Shien is everywhere.
I mean only this week there's yet another bribe on topcashback for using shien.
Then you have EU exports down.
Shien and the others is the reason I haven't bought any asos shares. So far it's the right call. The price has languished here for months while the snp 500 continues to grow.
I like to use the s&p500 as a benchmark myself. When a nice easy Vanguards s&p tracker VUAG is walking all over a stock it makes no sense to buy.
I still see no upside on the horizon except a buy out. And tbh.. Longer asos languishes. The less appealing they are for a buyout.
I continue to watch but as has been case for many months.. Many other stocks seem better picks. And even the S&P etfs.
Took another £5k of these just after open today...
Was actually a bit of a pain to buy tbh, took a while to get a quote.
Ok you win this time
Started: jamesss, 5 Jun 2024 15:07
Last post: jetstar23, 5 Jun 2024 17:43
200 day SMA seems the major resistant point from a chart point of view. Haven't been able to close above it since February, despite brief intra-day pops above the line.
If we can carry on the northerly trajectory towards 400s with the shorts dropping off, that will do me for now.
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 5 Jun 2024 12:09
Last post: JimmyJJones, 5 Jun 2024 14:24
Gotta hand it to him, he's committed to the cause - posting at 3am..... joker
But Roberto knows better than the experts
Https://www.ft.com/content/e4d32fb6-4f42-41bc-adf1-9a10edec4928
You never know...
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 5 Jun 2024 10:20
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 5 Jun 2024 10:20
*UK exports of clothing and footwear to the EU have dived since Brexit, according to a new study that shows the extent to which complex regulations and red tape at the border have deterred firms from sending goods across the Channel.
Exports of clothing and footwear sold to EU countries have fallen from £7.4bn in 2019 to £2.7bn in 2023, helping fuel an 18% slump in sales of all non-food goods exports to countries covered by the EU single market, according to the consultancy Retail Economics and online marketplace Tradebyte.
The report said the decline meant British brands and retailers have seen sales to the EU plummet since Brexit, despite a flourishing European e-commerce market.*
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/05/uk-clothing-sales-eu-crash-brexit-red-tape-deters-exporters
Started: Apeirogon, 5 Jun 2024 09:42
Last post: Apeirogon, 5 Jun 2024 09:42
Inditex (Zara, Pull&Bear) at 5yr highs on improved 2Q outlook.
Started: Nate_D, 4 Jun 2024 17:12
Last post: jamesss, 4 Jun 2024 17:16
Ha ha ha 'you're goingggg the wronggg wayyy'
Shorts reduced from 5.28% to 5.08%, both QUBE & GLG down by 0.10%.
Maybe Robo should get in touch and tell them they are going the wrong way.
Last post: southcoastbather, 3 Jun 2024 14:46
Added another £10k here just now, £20k total so far in for the long punt.
So I´m still looking for those big buys. They seem pretty hard to find.............
Where ?
Reckon it is nailed on - someone is buying big...
Reckon or hope ?
Started: HereKittyKitty, 31 May 2024 07:47
Last post: MattDCFC, 31 May 2024 15:06
Please avoid getting personal on this forum.
I see this idiot Roberto still here
useless f
I do actually 😉
Roberto knows better than these billionaires....very clever boy. A tucking twix
So what if it goes to £5 or even £2.55 Roberto? What do you want us to do? You should connect with the 3 big players in this share and give them advice, they have far more to lose/gain then us collectively.
Last post: Reardon95, 31 May 2024 07:37
Another positive day would be nice today! £4 incoming!
Although the chosen adjective is accurate as can be, I do agree, let's keep it clean.
Please can we refrain from using abusive language towards other users on this forum. It is not helpful, disagreement in opinion doesn’t not warrant abusive messaging.
Thank you.
If a bid did come in i'd be happy with anything north of £5....make a little profit and move on to something else
To be fair, he's only dealing in "facts" as you've been asking people to
Started: lsestocks23, 30 May 2024 15:22
Last post: sj74, 30 May 2024 15:23
Sept/oct time.
Anyone know when the next set of results/interims are due? Nothing on plc site
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 30 May 2024 07:53
Last post: HereKittyKitty, 30 May 2024 14:56
OMG!
"Random testing of clothes, bags, belts and other items showed high in forever chemicals linked to cancer and autism.
Some items contained over 400 times the safe level of compounds, which can pass through the skin and get into blood systems"
Shein are back in the limelight about their clothes containing "high levels of toxic 'forever chemicals' linked to cancer and infertility" :
https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2024/05/29/warning-for-shein-shoppers-products-including-childrens-clothes-are-found-to-contain-428-times-the-legal-limit-of-cancer-causing-chemicals/
https://www.thestreet.com/retail/popular-fashion-retailer-flagged-for-cancer-linked-chemicals-in-products
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13468265/Shein-childrens-clothes-toxic-forever-chemicals.html
Wise words from the comments section, take notes:
Asos, - probably doomed - no USP, no loyalty due to fast fashion nature: Chinese competitors (probably their original suppliers) have seen what they did and done it better (and cheaper) - Primark squeezing at the other end.
THG: Directionless, sprawling, led by investors, not business vision/ Never comprehended the company at all - does it have a purpose?
Not going to debate THG here, robo, there another BB for that. But it's quite clear you know nothing about the myriad dimensions of its offering.
Re ASOS, I said 'largely' online retailers and noted ASOS'S physical concessions in Nordstrom stores and the forthcoming:
*Reliance Retail will introduce ASOS’s curated portfolio of fashion-led own brand labels to the Indian market through a multi-channel presence for ASOS and a diverse array of retail formats, including exclusive brand stores, multi-brand store expressions, and digital commerce platforms.*
Are you serious?