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Love reading some of the valuations here. People talking of sale north of 35p are totally deluded. This sort of nonsense was spouted on the Ophir boards. Friday's sp action will be a barometer it will be sold about low 20s or perhaps a part sale of CPO to ONGC. Ophir had cash and low opex and the only difference here is insider holding of management. Sure management have closed deals before at a premium and perhaps yesterday's RNS will flush out other interested parties. However the decision at a time of these pitiful low sp valuation mid tier oilers to offer a sale doesnt smack of confidence. I suspect a bid from GTE. Let's hope board rise to challenge despite repeated failings or are lucky to have a bidding war in which case all bets are off. I'll stay PUT til it's sold and the disappointment of having these shares for many years will be over.
What makes me laugh is people telling me im the deluded one (49p) when at least I + ColonelDrake supported our SP estimates vs some go**** who trots out banter objections.
Hey we may not be right, but we have at least put substance behind our valuations.
Also its just as ludicrous to base the Selling Price on any multilpe of 12p (a share valuation based on II's selling for years on the back of a weak mangement team dishing out free shares for the boys & the odd duster - which was undoubtedly shorted to death) just garbage.
Thankfully any offer would imo have to drill down into each asset & build a market value from that point up, such an offer would not include managemnt weaknesses or market manipulation, or distressed II's (as they will want returns for all the pains suffered)
I through your delusions right back at you.
Whatever the outcome , if we don't sell the 12p days should be well behind us , that was absolutely soul destroying.
Even if there was no offer at 200 mil mcap it still looks ridiculously cheap that's for sure.
Wolster
“Also its just as ludicrous to base the Selling Price on any multilpe of 12p (a share valuation based on II's selling for years on the back of a weak mangement team dishing out free shares for the boys & the odd duster - which was undoubtedly shorted to death) just garbage.”
Okay, if it is ludicrous, where are the ones taken out at more than twice their “starting price”? This time it’s different? Really?
Compare SOCO acquisition of Merlon. A 7k BOPD producer, low cost, on shore in a proven basin completed this year. SOCO paid just over 200m USD. Merlon had 22m debt and similar 2p reserves to AMER. Both countries have geopolitical risk which are similar IMO (social issues/government receivables). Oil prices were similar. SOCO valued Merlon about £150m approx at current exchange rates. Of course there is the OBA with its strategic value and 3rd party royalty bit let's remember current PLAT production has struggled to be maintained and this should be thought about. Let's say 50m USD in AMER bank or 40m pounds with current mcap £200 we'd be valued at 16p which is exactly where we ended up on Friday or Merlons value. Of course AMER acreage has greater blue sky potential but these are unproven resources. I put a value of this and OBA of £50-100m so best case 24p. I'd love you to be right at valuing this company at £600m or a .....Genel. Genel has 160m free cash flow, x7 times P2 reserve of AMER, 34k BOPD, cash in bank (similar) and a low cost producer that's why I struggle to see 49p share price.
No sale necessary Rosannan , don't forget , we hold the aces. Amer can just get on with the job until the next offer comes in, simples.
garyobrien
And then back down towards 12p? No thanks.
LuckCounts
The validity of the analogy with Ophir does not lie in balance sheet specifics, rather it lies in historical management performance and likely share price action once “in play”. Again, where are the ones taken out at more than twice their “starting price”? Why should AMER be any different?
Personally, I find the starting SP a non item. You have to look at current assets, potential, who’s involved, for what reason and their long term strategic alignment with the assets being put up for sale. A bidding war (which Oxy would likely win) also eliminates the currency SP as a starting point, they will pay what’s necessary to secure their strategy within reason, which could be very far from current SP. amer shall be no more within 6 months or so and I’d have my money on Oxy securing the whole package then carving up and selling off what they don’t want, easy for a comply of their size IMO.
f1game
“Personally, I find the starting SP a non item.”
If that is a valid point, where then are all the oilers taken out at more than twice their “starting price”? Why should AMER be any different?”. The days of $100 oil are long gone and AMER was at 12p for reasons that we all understand only too well.
The agm presentation document shows the value the bod put on this company. Since then they have done nothing to change that. Rock bottom value created of $367m.
IMHO $500m is what the bod would expect as a minimum which equates to 33p approx. Stifel at 37p is not a lot different.
Bod will not recommend anything less. What a majority vote would accept is a totally different matter.
I am not sure of the mechanics with offers made. Can anyone enlighten me?
Clearly there is little opportunity to buy up stock at low prices ..... I think ...... To force a sale.
I cannot understand how so many shares changed hands after this announcement. Who would sell at these crazy low prices ....... Beats me. Heho monday here we come.
Re Friday, sods law, i was preparing to attend a funeral and missed the chance to buy from 0930 hrs, which was a giveaway at 14p.
Rossanan , why would it go back down to 12p after the company has been properly valued and had an offer made? Plus the longer this goes on as a going concern , it will make new discoveries and profits hand over fist and will then be in a position to pay a dividend. Any muppet can see the sp had been strangled intentionally for this possible take out at the cheapest possible price.
Rossanan, the sp movement on Friday, where it moved sharply up to 18p, before softening back to 16.5, could easily be a result of day traders jumping in when the news dropped, then banking profits. Especially if trading on margin. Let's see where we end up next Friday to get a more measured feel of what the market thinks. Around 20p is my guess.
Some interesting thoughts on valuation on the ADVFN bb, even fsawatcher has a point. We already have partners in most of our assets. AMER do not need to go looking for offers.
Interesting point on valuation, but even more interesting that potential buyers have not been building a stake of any description with the cheaply available open market shares.
So on the surface the offer has come into the BoD to act on behalf of the (major) shareholders, but to conclude the purchase they need the shareholders to accept the offer in a vote. That means in reality Michinoko and others will very likely be at or close to the negotiating table. Us PIs will be told what the offer is, and as we collectively don't make a big enough chunk to stop a deal then the only way it won't go through is if one or more of the major holders doesn't say yes.
In other words the sale price is not about the closing price on Thursday, nor is it about the asset values - although that plays a part in what the buyer will offer up to, but it's all about what price the owners will take for their shares. Thats a lot harder to guess.
One other point - in a break up sale the tax position may become very complex. Shares in the acquiring company may be exchanged - don't be too surprised to be offered London traded GTE shares plus some cash fro your AMER shares to minimise the taxation hit for the big holders.
garyobrien
Not convinced by “strangled intentionally” conspiracy theories and the like. If you don’t think that the share price could head back in the other direction, wait and see what happens if our oft clumsy BoD start sending the wrong signals.
I believe the 367 stated was or the land base and did not include pipeline.
Whilst we don't know what they will accept for their shares, we do know what they paid.
Last placing 2016: 25p for IIs still holding.
Michinoko took their last 3% in April 2017 so around 22p
River and Mercantile substantially added holding in 2017 18p/20p/22p range.
So, add a margin for 2/3 years use of capital and that gives a bottom line.
Ultimately, Michinoko and the BOD hold over 16% which is a good way towards 50% and also sufficient to block the compulsory acquisition of minority interests.
LC, his/her views have only made private investors reading this board examine more closely their investment in AMER. if anything it has probably made a few more likely to buy when the markets open.
May well be a paid troll, not a very good one but what is posted here will have no bearing on the sp direction.
Expecting some fun and games in the next few weeks. All the ducks nicely lined up. Bring it on!
LuckCounts
Since when is contemplating an exit nearly 60% higher than Friday’s closing “trolling” in any way, shape or form? Have a word.
I think his/her aggressive posting/reposting speaks volumes. I'd personally love to see 49, 67 or a £1. Maybe AMER will be valued at a billion!
One thing's for sure , we're out of the doldrums! Roll on tomorrow.....
35p - 40p take over price imo