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BG, I have ben doing a bit of digging and it seems that the Government of Tanzania began a review of all existing PSA's in 2018 to be completed in Feb 2019 with the expectation of amending and renegotiating those existing PSA's. What I have been unable to find is the outcome of that review but then maybe it is specific to each and every Agreement. Though I would freely admit that if our PSA had been amended under that review I would assume that we would/should have been informed - I don't recall being notified of any change.... but then again maybe those changes are contingent of the conclusion of the GSA? But I am purely guessing.
See https://arslaw.co.tz โบ review-of-production-sharing-agreements
It was only their expectation BG and not a given, conceivably, it may not have been put into effect. Maybe they managed to negotiate that away for (I am making this up) immunity from payment of historic costs? Most of which were probably due to AEX and not ARA!
"which is what they are entitled to under current legislation"
Well, it sounds cut and dry then Crusty, and that TPDC back-in % has been renegotiated. So a simple question to Aminex regarding TPDC ( BACK-IN ) % rights should or can be easily answered. Thanks again
It was information volunteered in the Q&A sessions from the floor. In context it was in discussion regarding the GSA, terms and likelihood of selling gas at wellhead with TPDC doing the pipeline or the alternative of ARA building the pipeline for a better price etc They stated that they believed that whilst not their preferred option the former was the most likely outcome and with TPDC taking up their full back-in rights of up to 20% which is what they are entitled to under current legislation.
I wonder if our friend Emptyend could shed any light on the subject ?
And yes, it is a big thing, the 15% I can live with but 20% is a lot harder to swallow.
", that has yet to be evidenced BUT BG I am NOT making it up."
Well OK, but they have never made public in any report that the original Ruvuma PSA 15% back-in rights are being negotiated. Tell me Crusty, was the % ( Back-in )info part of their general presentation, or was it stated on a more private one to one basis ? I'm generally inquisitive Crusty and thanks
"As far as we all know, TPDC back-in rights, is up to 15% of the Ntorya development"
So I am making what I heard at the AGM up am I? Believe me, they were discussing the expectation of a 20% dilution. Agreed, that has yet to be evidenced BUT BG I am NOT making it up.
As regards the costs versus the loss of income - I stand by my claim earlier - saving 15 or 20% of the costs of Ntorya development is immaterial compared to losing 15 -20% of all future Ntorya income streams; future income, revenues, P&L are important metrics in the valuation of any entity, the cash on the balance sheet has minimal contribution to valuation. So $7m in additional cash will have no effect on the sp / MC or anything else, $8m of future revenues could add enormous value.
So no, BG I emphatically and totally disagree with you; any dilution of that scale is "material". Indeed the greater the value the underlying asset the greater the value of any dilution; increase in assets and resources, the bigger the impact. We might never be able to identify or quantify the direct impact to shareholder value, MC or sp but to simply dismiss it as unimportant or immaterial is pretty short sighted in my view.
I do though agree that I would rather have TPDC in the tent and not out but is that worth 15 -20% equity? I don't think so. Then again there is feck all we can do about it, so little point in arguing the toss - but again to dismiss it as immaterial is frankly out and out Ostrich mode.
"ย That could have the effect of a considerable dilution."
Hi Crusty, As far as we all know, TPDC back-in rights, is upto 15% of the Ntorya development, which would dilute Aminex 25% of Ntorya down to 21.25 %, plus of course Aminex's share of costs to develop Ntorya is also reduced to 21.25%. So I see it as a bit of a plus having the TPDC on board, making it all more certain.
And considering a 15% dilution to Aminex's eventual income from Ntorya, might in time prove to be immaterial when now we see what the 3D seismic has revealed and just how big a resource/development Ntorya could become.
Dr Biteko who also doubles as the Minister for Energy
According to him, the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and its partners have secured a license to conduct natural gas exploration at the onshore Ntorya gas field in Mtwara region.
I do not expect anything now until after the Energy show is complete largely because before we get an RNS and, as emptyend pointed out, ARA will need written confirmation of the 25 Year Dev license completion before ARA can release the news to AEX and AEX can release that RNS. With so many "prime movers" at that show/conference I suspect little will move until everyone is back "at their desks" - plus there is the issue of the RNS "approval" before release.
Though as Edgar says and I agree, it is only a question of when and not if we will get it. I am also sure that it will have a positive impact on the sp - though quite how much of an impact is likely to depend on what, if anything gets announced with it? As emptyend has pointed out it could come with a slough of additional activity or pointers to the timelines for such activity. Anything will help - with the possible exception of confirmation of the execution and extent of any uptake of the TPDC's back-in rights. That could have the effect of a considerable dilution.
Were you not underwater needing 4p at one time RoJo?
Now it seems to be 2p so it seems you have been buying cheap on the sly ๐
...so sayeth poor old Under Water Eddie !
If they are doing a signing ceremony, from memory the last one (the GSA) kicked off the share around noon UK time...
I still don't care though ;). It is when not if.
Well Jollyboy - you've got no choice other than to wait, and wait, and wait, and wait...
Staying Jolly like Roger seems a good way to go here.
..And I have no problem staying long and strong here around now, but understand that this stock, like most others, will have its fair share of bedwetters involved too...
Free world that it - mostly/kinda - is, it's not for me to scorn anyone for bed wetting, even adults.
Thinking of the ideal release time. ๐ค
11am today could bring big movement and make news in the weekends financial press that will bring the herd for a massive rerate on Monday.
Any thoughts on best time?
Tbh as long as all the I&Ts are dotted and crossed I can wait.
Looks like we're going to be getting morning tree shakes until the RNS drops. Cant imagine people want to be out for the weekend so I expect we will finish blue
This is Tanzania, there has to be a photoshoot. Say cheese ๐
Most likely Monday but watch out for an intraday
...I think you've told us that Haggis (about 40 times).
Dkt. Doto Biteko is not just the Deputy Prime Minister, no, not just that, he is also the Minister for Energy, so if anyone knows the Licence has been granted, it is him, and he's the one that told the press.
How long from sign off to delivery to ARA is the only question.
All the required agencies have approved the licence and they have submitted to the cabinet for final approval. Signing a gas sales agreement with Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp. (TPDC) in April, APT reported the issue of the licence was imminent.
โThe authorities also expressed the importance of energy security for the country and its people. With this latest seismic data showing a significantly larger gas resource and with well matured plans to extract the gas for domestic use, we have every confidence of receiving the licence and progressing our work,โ said Aminex.
I noticed but knew what you meant ๐
The Albian MTC mass transportation complex prospect as highlighted on ARA`s website is what most excites me as it looks a huge prospect!!!!!