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Ufufuo yes they do say " “based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1”. This looks like an "exploration play" of the "stacked sands" akin to the that of the deeper Jurassic targets in the original CH1 drill plan. It was those deeper targets that caused CH1 to be considered an exploration well rather than an appraisal well.
The "multiple stacked sands" that they are exploring may prove to be a "dud", or may prove that there is the prospect of a shallower sand trap across the Ntorya basin. The CH1 drill will simply test and, hopefully, prove the viability of that sand play, it will not and can not comprehensively appraise it.
"Both Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2 successfully tested gas with flow rates of 20 MMscf/d and 17 MMscf/d respectively"
I did a diagram months back for the CH-1 based on 2D Seismic, with the well passing through the thickest section of the Ntroya trap. Base on the test results at NT-1 and NT-2, the CH-1 well could in theory hit a zone that was 4x to 4.5x thicker and thus could potentially produce at up to 80 MMscfd. The 3D image is still looking at 4x the thickness of sands.
Also, as per the broker report "the partners are looking to drill the new chikumbi-1 well. this well will not only appraise the current discovery (and be completed as producer if successful) but will also target new shallower horizons, identified in the new 3d seismic"
Funny thing is, from the 3D Seismic, I can't see how they can drill the thickest part of Ntorya up-dip from NT-2 through a shallow target, without drilling through THREE targets above it not one.
And either of the 3 as yet untested targets could contain Gas, or Oil.
https://ibb.co/sgHpWYc
Thanks Uwho? but I really don't need your advice.
I think this:
40 MMscfd = 40,000 Mcfd
Gas price say $3.50 per Mcf
40,000 x 3.5 = $140,000 / day
$140,000 x 365 = $51,100,000 year
25% of $51.1m = £12,775,000
Indeed.
The market certainly approves of the recent flow of news and communications. Going firmly in the right direction.
Watch the SP is my advice.
Fair enough Uwho?
We'll know soon enough!
Yes, johnnyflatearth I have seen that. I referred to it when I said I was concerned we were already over valued!
Five year high broken today RoJo 😁
I’ll trust the viewpoint of Aminex’s stockbroker, rather than our in house troll!!
I’m confident most others will too!
Somebody please remind Uwho that Shard have been making projections for years.
Have they been right yet?
There will be plenty of profit according to the company stockbrokers:
"Therefore, as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed:
1) Extending the plateau of 140mmscf/s for 20 years, would result in an increased average annual FCF of c$25mm/year, and an approximated asset value of £175mm (~4x the current market cap), using a simplified 12% discount on FCF in perpetuity model. We note that in this case only 1Tcf of resources will be utilised in the 20-year period.
2) Theoretically, increasing the plateau to 250mmscf/s for 20 years would effectively exploit almost all of the 2Tcf of gas in this 20-year period. This hypothetical case, in our estimate, would generate an average annual FCF of about $40mm, representing an approximated asset value of ~£275mm net to AEX (~6x the current market cap)"
So, Free Cash Flow for Aminex of somewhere between $25m and $40m if the 3D seismic results were 2tcf. Obviously, they were very much higher than that.
Well it will come as no surprise to you lot but the SP may already be an optimistic valuation. The SP in the long term will be based on whether gas can be brought to market and sold for a price that provides a profit. The size of the profit will define the SP.
It will NOT be based on guesstimates, assumptions and subjective opinions of GIIP.
Thinking ahead to when gas starts being produced, the RNS of 10 Jan 2024 indicates agreed gas sales of 40 MMscfd. Assuming we're able to source a rig that can meet this demand then what are we estimating this equates to in terms of daily revenue?
Thanks in advance
BlackGold
Yes there is a way of seeing the page properly but sadly this would mean not seeing the adverts which help keep this site funded to all our benefit. It involves a download of a software solution block.
Of course they will learn more as they drill more ,and I anticipate further upward revisions.
They do clearly state that figure will be “based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1”
Ufufuo. It will take a LOT more than just the CH1 appraisal well to prove up the whole basin! At best, it might go some way to confirming their assumptions.
We do have a guide for what CH1 might prove up based on the high quality 3D seismic. Following the 3D seismic, ARA said:
Estimates related to NT1 wells:
“A most-likely (approximating to P50) estimate of 3.45 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) is now believed to be potentially connected to the reservoir sandstones encountered in the Ntorya-1 (NT-1) and Ntorya-2 (NT-2) discovery wells”
Estimates related to CH1:
“An upside aggregated GIIP volume for the Ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1, is estimated by APT to be up to 7.95 Tcf”
So ARA reckon there is potentially an additional 4.5tcf associated with CH1. To be confirmed by the drilling of the well course!
P.S.
Then upside as new wells are drilled and set as producers.
AND if they find any commercial oil in any of the many untested traps, BOOM!!
4.21bn shares in issue
10p would be a MCap of £421m
5p would be a MCap of £210.5m
My thinking on post CH-1 drill success was around £250m too. I don't think it should be lower, but I'm also not sure it will go higher in this market. If the market recovers by year end, which is now looking possible as the UK has escaped the mini recession last month, then could be £350m or more by the time the gas is flowing.
And of course making the assumption that we do not have another operational screw up.
Evening Al. The sp post CH1 drill will of course depend an awful lot on what it happens to find. I am not going to try and second guess what the well might prove up in terms of TCF etc, not least since it would be exactly that; total guesswork. So assuming a modest increase in estimated reserves I would be looking at £250 - 300m Market Cap.
great to have a broker on the case, raising awareness to their clients (ii's, fund managers, hnw, uhnw, etc).
courtesy of haideralifool on advfn.
"several catalysts throughout 2024. once the development licence has been issued by the ministry of energy, besides re-entering the two existing wells (nt1 and nt-2), the partners are looking to drill the new chikumbi-1 well. this well will not only appraise the current discovery (and be completed as producer if successful) but will also target new shallower horizons, identified in the new 3d seismic. therefore, we see chikumbi-1 well and progress in the pipeline spur as two most significant catalysts in next 12 months. "
hxxps://*********************/companies/uk/aminex-plc/research/shard-capital/things-lining-up-nicely-/fcbcfb2d-c70d-4af0-9fd0-3b79775304a0
*Tonno
If you follow the RNS's, nothing new. Provides a tidy little summary of recent activity though. Free to acces but need to register. Will prob be on AEX's website tomorrow.