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You have assumed if they need cash they ll raise via a placing.
With the GSA agreed and signed they can raise finance elsewhere
Maybe not October first gas.
Funded through to end of 2024 as per RNS
Tanz wants this to happen what more can a business ask for.
1. Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP), otherwise known as the Stiegler’s Gorge project should be ready late 2024. At 2,115MW, its capacity is higher than national peak capacity today.
2. Tanzania’s power utility firm Tanesco entered into a joint venture with United Arab Emirates' Masdar to generate a further 2,000MW of electricity using renewable sources by late 2024.
That is a massive amount of Power. The above will have an impact on local gas demand. An export pipeline to Mombasa and Nairobi would help but that has been under discussion for over a decade.
= = = = = =
re: Kiliwani North Development License (KNDL)
" The [3D] incursion into the KNDL should provide valuable data to improve structural mapping and refine the prospectivity of the Kiliwani North and South structures " 1. Charles Santos
There has been a delay with the 3D seismic over the Kiliwani North Development License. The timing of the interpretation has extended to Q4 now. Will the cash flow from KNDL arrive in time to save Aminex?
Let's not discuss Aminex fundamentals because that would be a total waste of time other than to say they are absolutely atrocious. Looking at the balance sheet elicits a visceral sensation of repulsion. Without continued external financial support, they are in trouble. They certainly cannot afford the luxury of maintaining the operator status. Without a Gas Sales Agreement and without even one cubic foot of 1P reserves, the company doesn't qualify for a loan. The expected 30% drop due to the anticipated capital raise could be surpassed.
Orca Energy Group has US $93.6 million in cash. They are skilled as an operator and intimately acquainted with the World Class 'SongoSongo' reservoir. Assuming the 3D seismic interpretation proves to be awe-inspiring, Aminex should be more than happy to farm out most of their 63.8% position in KNDL. The bigger concern is, would Orca Energy Group want to farm in? Orca Energy Group's decision isn't a known.
Without any control and without any say or sway over anything, its usefulness is limited. This company's management team has about as much influence over events as does a bump on a log. This company has gone well past its 'best before' expiry date. The only useful function left is its ability to extract more capital from the easily deceived Old Age Pensioner. Management needs to seek out a strategic alternative in order to enhance shareholder value. A Wentworth-styled takeout, with a 30% premium to market, would be a godsend gift.
At the Annual Meeting, it will be interesting to hear how management plans to make a silk purse from a sow's ear. The challenges are formidable to say the least.
You make a very convincing argument against tbh
Thank-you prosciutto !
Most posters here have entrenched positions for a variety of reasons.
Your posts are a breath of fresh air.
This company's mandate should be to try to put together a decent return for shareholders. For a generation, it has failed miserably to do so and will most likely continue to fail. There has been nothing to show for it except years and years of lost opportunity. Referring to this company as a major disappointment is being generous.
The company is powerless because all of the events are outside of the company's control. It's a fact that they are in financial distress. This fact was published in their financial statements. Creating true shareholder value is an impossible task for the management team.
Even if minimal production does actually proceed, it won't have much impact ... ie .. compare Aminex with Orca Energy Group. This level is where Aminex would love to be at. Even at this level, it won't make a damn bit of difference because Orca Energy Group is still being ignored by the investment community.
Item ..............................Aminex ........Orca Energy Group
1. Gas Production .... 0 MMscf/d..... 95.5 MMscf/d (+ protected gas of up to 45 MMscf/d, sold at cost)
2. Cash Flow per share ... negative ... US $3.40 /sh
3. Working Capital ... negative .............. US $61.5 million
4. Cash / equivalent .. minimal ........ US $96.3 million (US $4.84/sh .. trading at US $3.90)
5. Net Income ...... negative ........... US $1.39 /sh (and the 'at cost' protected gas arrangement terminates July 31, 2024.)
6. Dividend Yield .... No dividend .........7.6%
Orca Energy Group desires to have a license extension past 2026. It is trading below the cash/sh level. Institutional investors simply aren't interested in either one. The luxury Orca Energy Group has is that, without a license extension, it can simply hand over the keys and distribute the ever-increasing bundle of cash which is kept offshore for a reason.
ARA will pull through eventually, but Aminex is no ARA ... far from it.
1. Production by October ... a pipedream .. more are starting to move towards this realization.
2. Capital raise .... there exists a high probability of an upcoming dilution. It doesn't qualify for a loan.
3. The Tanzania Revenue Authority is putting the squeeze on Aminex. They'll need one third of the disputed amount to be deposited just to hear the appeal. Either way, what do you suppose will happen to the deposit?
4. The negative working capital is a fact. This is serious because this WILL require remediation.
5. By hook or by crook, with a sequence of deliberately engineered delays, Aminex could end up being taken over for a song.
Wentworth / Maurel & Prom have yet to obtain their " Clearance Certificate'. Regulatory changes may cause the deal to go off track. Wentworth could find themselves back in the same predicament that Aminex currently finds itself in with no control over anything.
Encourage the takeover of Aminex.. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Before Orca started selling anything
Item .................................
1. Gas Production .... 0 MMscf/d.....
2. Cash Flow per share ... negative ...
3. Working Capital ... negative ..............
4. Cash / equivalent .. minimal ........
5. Net Income ...... negative ...........
6. Dividend Yield .... No dividend ........
Lets compare once the gas starts flowing....
🚛 👷🏽♀️
If only we were paid by the number of optimistic posts, or the number of straw-clutchers following a share.
But we're not.
We're paid by the performance of the SP, and the Market is totally unimpressed isn't it ?
We're not impressed.
We're Not impressed
All one of you RoJo ?
We're not impressed
All
Well of course you're not impressed.
I didn't expect you to be.
I know you are freemen of the Honorable Company of Straw-clutchers.
" On 9 June 2023 the Company announced that representatives of the Company and M&P had attended a preliminary hearing before the FCC in Tanzania on 7 June, at which various Tanzanian governmental parties were present and that a number of concerns were raised which may impact the likelihood of the FCC to approve the Acquisition in its current form." Wentworth June 12th, 2023
Not exactly ' investment friendly' news. If this Wentworth / Maurel & Prom deal falls through, Wenworth shareholders will find themselves transforming back into the same helpless predicament that Aminex is currently in with no control over anything. Wentworth share price is not reacting well to this news,
Multiple levels of bureaucracy need to align. The Ministry, TPDC, TRA and the Fair Competition Commission all need to be satiated and that is a very tough task considering how voraciously hungry they are.
1) How is the Scirocco Energy deal moving along? Unless there is a resolution, ARA may elect to slow things down at Ruvuma.
2) How many brown envelopes do you need for the outstretched hands?
" .... this is Africa. The local lads will be queueing up, hands outstretched, to discuss "the fees" required to (i) satisfy the minister, plus (ii) to forego TPDC's rights of pre-emption to take over the Mnazi Bay asset and plus (iii) for final approval by the FCC.
Only after all those shovels have been inserted into the £61 million on offer from the purchasers, will WEN shareholders get their hands on whatever is left over. And as for a completion of a takeover by 31st December, it's most unlikely to be 2023. Pick a different year, the local lads are in no hurry to cut a deal. Just look at the troubles Tullow have had in monetizing their assets in both Uganda and Kenya, geographical next door neighbors to Tanzania. Not a single barrel sold since major oil discoveries some ten years ago." 1. gewillia on WEN chat board Jun 11th 2023
3) How long are you willing to suffer with these delays?
4) How far will the price drop with the next anticipated Capital raise?
We are still waiting on the Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation. You really don't want to read about " small stratigraphic traps". Remember, this is still an exploration asset and not a development asset. Chikumbi needs to come in big as an outlier success.... no small feat. You can't rely on the poorly imaged 2D seismic but the 3D seismic will provide that binary decision point.
Aminex exhibits a life of desperation whilst the clock counts down and the ' lost opportunity ' costs continue to soar. Encourage the search for a strategic alternative such as a takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
At the AGM, it will be interesting to hear how management plans to make a silk purse from a sow's ear. The challenges are formidable to say the least.
Prosciutto - buy a share and go to the AGM and put your concerns / questions to the directors yourself. I expect all shareholders would love to hear the debate between you.
Prosciutto will be there because Prosciutto likes a good mass debate over AEX.
Re: asking a question at the AGM
" ... could we not find and elect one spokesperson to represent our case?" 1. Tanzania
Yes, the most senior person deserves this ... namely, Tanzania.
It will be interesting to hear how management plans to make a silk purse from a sow's ear. The challenges are formidable to say the least. Select at least five questions from the list below. Make sure to ask question #10 Tanzania .... eyes wide open.
Questions to ask:
1)The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is outstanding. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are you working on?
3) Watching what's happening with Wentworth and Maurel & Prom, are you concerned that a takeover of Aminex may not be possible?
4) Did you have faith in the poorly defined 2D seismic cartoon? Of the 3D seismic you have seen, is it mostly small stratigraphic traps?
5) The Scirocco deal has yet to obtain a 'Clearance Certificate'. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. Are you expecting ARA to stall on Ruvuma because of this?
6) What is the cause of the hold up on the 3D seismic at Kiliwani North Development License?
7) Is there any institutional interest at all?
8) Could you provide an update on NT-1, NT-2 and CH-1, rig?
9) Are you any closer to a 25-year license, GSA or FFD? Do you expect ARA to stall until these three are approved?
10) Are you still on schedule for October gas production?
11) Are there any ongoing discussions with respect to the Nyuni farm out?
12) Will the completion of the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) have a significant negative impact on gas demand?
13) Other than sharpen pencils, what does management do all day long?
14) With no control over anything, why should the company even exist?
15) Do you foresee a day when this company will actually turn a profit?
16) With the persistent delays, what is the ultimate 'expiry date' or date of 'no return' for the company?
This is a classic case of where the emperor wears no clothes. The illiquidity could rapidly evolve into insolvency. It's time to look up and recognize that this emperor wears no clothes. A generation of investors have been left disillusioned and, with no control over anything, the company has no raison d'être. The company is a profoundly helpless and hopeless.
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Apparently, even a takeover has regulatory risk as witnessed with Wentworth and Maurel & Prom. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and, hopefully, the takeover will get approval without attracting too many regulatory bodies each requesting a fee.
Already agreed Mick.... er er Proscuitto, not for me at 86 years. Let me ask you a couple of questions. Are you eligible to pose questions ? So many other posters here notice you ignore anything to do with the 'free carry'. Why is that? The extra special Hydro is at best 7 years away. How much gas can be pumped up in the time (a mean estimate will do). Accenuate every negative, eliminate the acreage positive is your way, yes ? I'm sure other posters here have their own questions for you but you always, but always duck them, don't you ?
Looks like someone's been on the Prosseco
He's not interested in discussion. He thinks he's a street preacher telling all the sinners what God has told him in a dream. Do you stop and listen to street preachers? To you believe a word of what they say? Or do you walk by as fast as possible and leave them to their delusion because you know there is no point trying to strike up a debate with them? On here we have the filter, why don't you use it and leave him to his delusion?
Careful mctripe!
Remember we have our very own free Presbyterian minister preaching here.
"Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Apparently, even a takeover has regulatory risk as witnessed with Wentworth and Maurel & Prom. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and, hopefully, the takeover will get approval without attracting too many regulatory bodies each requesting a fee."
There's lots of ways ARA can gain economic value from AEX:
1. Sell % equity stake it has in AEX which don't involve a change in ownership
2. Use AEX to raise capital (once it has multibagged from the current price)
These are the two most obvious benefits that ARA has in having its interest held via a plc and why I think it will continue with this structure for a while yet.
Celebrated highlights of the week
" Complete nonsense Jollyboydrewky. " 1. RoJo
" an estimate of the gas in the ground is no basis for a valuation of AEX whatsoever " 1. Crusty Pete
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Working Capital:
Cash and cash equivalents stood at US$5.81 million," 1..AEX 2022
Current assets include the cash.
When the current liabilities exceed the current assets, you have what is known as a negative working capital. Aminex has a negative working capital. This means that the business does not have enough liquid assets to pay for its short-term obligations. They MUST generate cash flow and they MUST generate it soon. The situation should be cause for concern for lenders, creditors and shareholders alike.
= = = = = =
Re: Questions for AGM.
Last week's list has been narrowed down to 5. This is more manageable for Tanzania.
Questions to ask:
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
Tanzania, you might also want to ask about the deposit required for an appeal.
2) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are you working on?
Be prepared for them to pull the wool over your eyes Tanzania. Double down with insistence for a clear, concise answer. The Capital raise will entail dilution which subsequently entails further weakness in share price.
3) The Scirocco deal has yet to obtain a 'Clearance Certificate'. Also, there has been no closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
They will deflect this question. Just the mere act of deflection is very revealing.
4) Are you still on schedule for October gas production?
Best prepare yourself to have your eyes opened and your jaw to drop. The 'silly list' poster has been promoting this as a fundamental fact. You are about to learn what reality is all about Tanzania.
5) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
With nothing to do, management will continue milking this for as long as possible. They'll figure out some way to respond to this question.
" So incredibly frustrating this.... as management continues to fail in achieving anything at all, but reward itself as if they are doing a wonderful job..... Hopefully this is over soon, I just can't bear it any longer." 1. Mick2020 on WEN chat board as related to WEN. Ditto for AEX. Mick2020 warned you, over and over again, to get out of AEX whilst it was trading at > 4p.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
The company has no raison d'être. Before it is too late, what you want to hear from management on July 13th, is the following .....
" We have come to the realization how difficult things are at present and thus we have opted to se
Cont'd
The company has no raison d'être. Before it is too late, what you want to hear from management on July 13th, is the following .....
" We have come to the realization how difficult things are at present and thus we have opted to seek out a strategic alternative for the company. "
Celebrated highlights of the week
" Years not months StockCheque. lol " 1. Honest Tom
" Typically. there is a cloud right over NT-1 on today's Satellite view!" 1. StockCheque
Typically, there is a cloud of uncertainty over this entire company every day.
= = = = = = = = = =
Status:
Aminex has a negative working capital. This fact didn't make it onto the promotional 'silly list'. The 'Negative Working Capital' and the 'Free Carry' are mutually exclusive conditions. The ' Free Carry' isn't going to alter the fact that they don't have enough liquid assets (money) to pay for the short-term obligations.
What are the options?
1) Capital raise. This causes dilution along with share price weakness. This will tighten the noose around their neck.
2) Farm out part of the remaining 25% of Ruvuma. Becoming so eviscerated, they may as well call it quits.
3) Farm out of KNDL. This is the best option of the three, but approval / timing could become a serious issue.
= = = = = = =
re: Oil discussions
Forget about the oil. There is a reason why Tullow left. There was no commercial quantity of oil discovered at Likonde-1 which is just North of CH-1. APT is working on a GSA... the G stands for 'Gas' and not 'Oil'. 100% of the proceeds of any liquid condensates, currently produced by the co-venturers, go directly to TPDC and NOT to the co-venturer.
= = = = = = =
The acquisition of Wentworth may be at risk. The decline in WEN's share price is understandable. If the acquisition fails, Wentworth will revert back into its former 'abyss of despair' which Aminex currently occupies.
Tomorrow is a big day for the shareholders. They have an opportunity to converse with management. Your task is to find out if the emperor is wearing any clothes. The questions were designed to penetrate through the thin illusionary veneer. There is no copyright on the questions so feel free to ask them if Tanzania fails to do so.
Repeat of Questions
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are you working on?
3) The Scirocco deal has yet to obtain a 'Clearance Certificate'. Also, there has been no closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
4) Are you still on schedule for October gas production?
5) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
Encourage the takeover of Aminex.. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
recent celebrated highlights
" i do find it somewhat surprising that with all this 'good news' and millions of income and tax exemptions that the sp is still languishing. " 1. rojo
" they have no knowledge of when they will be starting the groundwork for the pipeline nor if or who is contracted to build it " 1. crusty pete. thank you for your objective assessment of the agm, cp
" first gas still expected october " the 'silly list ' author. june 6th, 2023.
= = = = = = = =
they'll be lucky to start the gas pipeline by end of october.
what we have here is a globular cluster of excessive bureaucracy. another delay is possible.
tanz: no mick2020 here. he is a very perceptive man. he tried desperately, on several occasions, to save your financial ass at > 4p. he obviously failed to do so. wentworth was, and still is, a quantum-leap better shape than aminex. if that acquisition fails, wentworth will fall back into the same 'abyss of despair' where aminex currently resides.
= = = = = = = = = =
" we have successfully acquired the necessary funds via our equity placing in april 2022 to ensure our running costs are covered (before one-off and exceptional items) until receipt of revenues." 1. aex
dec 31st, 2022. annual report
current assets ... us $7.1 million
current liabilities ... us $9.9 million
this must have been a printing error! it clearly shows the current liabilities is larger than the current assets.
creative accounting 101 ... just ignore the balance sheet and hopefully, no one will notice.
= = = = = = = =
keeping the operator status for kndl, whilst not having a pot to **** in, would certainly be cause for a massive capital raise. this narrative just wouldn't work without massive dilution. the only reason you would even entertain this ridiculous idea is to prevent the cessation of salary emoluments. this company represents a redundant layer of bureaucracy with no raison d'être. this company is essentially acting as a shill. notice the preeminent spokesperson at the agm wasn't the ceo of aminex. could the comedian mr. bean, run this company just as effectively at a fraction of the cost?
scirocco, wentworth, orca energy, and maurel & prom ate all getting royally screwed over.
who is next in line to be royally screwed over?
bring an end to this status as an enslaved shill. encourage the search for a strategic alternative. be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Celebrated highlights of the week
" What nonsense is this PoC ?" 1. RoJo
" We are also months away from the drill " 1. StockCheque
Evidence that reality has started to creep in.
= = = = = = = =
What exactly does Aminex NOT have?
Aminex is a company that does not have control over anything.
Aminex is a company that does not have any say or sway over anything.
Aminex is a company that does not have any production, cash flow, income, a dividend, time to spare or a signed GSA.
Aminex is a company that does not have a raison d'être.
etc.
What exactly does Aminex have?
Aminex does have a negative working capital.
Aminex does have millions of dollars' worth of tax assessments. pg 66 of Annual Report
etc.
= = = = = =
Comparative Analysis:
Wentworth is producing ~ 31.94% of 90 MMscf/d ~ = 28.7 MMscf/d. Wentworth has stalled
Orca Energy Group is producing ~ > 135 MMscf/d (including protected gas). Orca Energy Group has stalled.
Ruvuma's NT-2: (25% - TPDC back in = 21.25%. ) 21.25% of 17 MMscf/d = 3.61 MMscf/d. This miniscule decoupled first gas production won't get any traction whatsoever. Wentworth has seven times as much production. Orca Energy Group has thirty-seven times as much production.
In order for Aminex to match Mnazi Bay, Ruvuma would need to produce 90 / 0.2125 = 423 MMscf/d. In order for Aminex to match Orca Energy Group, Ruvuma would need to produce 135 / 0.2125 = 635 MMscf/d. The ' silly list' will likely include this projection in the next revision and some will undoubtedly believe it.
Aminex is walking on a financial tightrope. It is totally mystifying the amount of intrigue for this risky proposition.
Having said that, Aminex is not entirely hopeless. Two prospective bright spots for Aminex are Nyuni and KNDL.
From Orca Energy Group's 's point of view, the Kiliwani North Development License would be of interest to them. Orca Energy and Aminex are joined at the hip. Orca is covering the cost for 12.5 sq km of 3D seismic over the KNDL and that's about a US $1.57 million gift. Orca is obviously interested. The 3D seismic should pinpoint new structures and stratigraphic leads. This is shallow water and very close to a gas processing plant. Immediate access and no 35 km pipeline required. The drilling and the tie backs could be handled by Orca Energy Group.
" The [3D] incursion into the KNDL should provide valuable data to improve structural mapping and refine the prospectivity of the Kiliwani North and South structures " 1. Charles Santos
Orca Energy Group has ~ US $96.3 million in cash. They are skilled as an operator and intimately acquainted with the World Class ' SongoSongo' reservoir. Assuming the 3D seismic proves noteworthy, Aminex should entertain a farm out of their 63.8% of KNDL
Nyuni is highly prospective but it's totally out of reach for this financially distressed Aminex.
It will be a major challenge to get a KND