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You will see I have expressed my view that either Zubair Ara etc are going to actually develop Ruvuma or they are deceiving us . You now down rate Aminex from Buy to No opinion. Was it something the Sultan said persuaded you to originally promote a buy opinion and wonder what has now made you demote your original recommendation ?
Presumably, I don't suppose they would be doing it otherwise the change in location will result in
1. A better chance of a successful outcome.
2. Higher production.
Will be really interesting if Ara can share these details further down the line - I assume at some point these details will be announced.
Atb,
Northern
Looking back at the 2022 AGM file page 12 and taking into account that the are not doing any risky exploration, closer to NT-2 seems more likely to me than further away, as further away they would be moving into the untested zones, and at 2.5km from the old CH-1 they would be getting into a much thinner (pointlessly so) zone. Going closer to NT-2 would be to target the thicker part of the same zone, so very minimal risk of not hitting the proven gas.
Of course there could be seen with 3D a better position towards NT-2 but further North or South rather than in line between CH-1 (old) and NT-2.
I'll b keeping and eye on the Satellite view anyway and will post as soon as anything within a 4km radius changes, just in case ARA aren't planning on updating AEX until after the pad is built.
CP, that's very cheeky of them!!
I seriously doubt that they will have been working on it yet as, at the time of the AGM, they did not have planning permission for it....
One strange but interesting story related at the AGM was that, in Tanzania, you never give away the location of any future work scheme (roads, buildings, factory or well site) because if you do, by the time you get planning permission, someone will have built a village, a farm, a school or all of the above on the site - that way they are due compensation when the planning permission is granted!!
CP AGM feedback: "The new wellhead for CH1 is approximately 2.5 - 3 km's from the original site"
I suggest close to NT-2. Where the line is on the AGM presentation. This fits with the above.
Based on distance. Measured using Google Earth.
https://ibb.co/3ktvNmF
AGM slide might confirm it.
https://ibb.co/hgBKcnc
Overlay one over the other. AGM slide resized by percent until CH-1 and NT-2 align (keeping distances in perspective). Possible drill line is then just outside the 3km mark.
https://ibb.co/wQs6hCM
Well, for what it’s worth, in my opinion it all comes down to whether Santos, the Sultan and the BOD mean to act as they say are going to,or are deceiving us. It’s as simple as that. If they are aiming to deceive us, we should know shortly with more delay and procrastination. Yes, I am a very, very long term holder going way back to those days of 24p but thankfully averaged down to 1p over time. Unlike others, I want to see a profit. I’s like to hope most AEX investors want to see the same, happy ending, but accept others weirdly don’t !
I do find it somewhat surprising that with all this 'good news' and millions of income and tax exemptions that the SP is still languishing.
Are you missing something guys?
Mick’s still here Tanz, you must have missed it focussing too much on Rojo - see 12/7 @ 12:30.
This obsession with Rojo is crazy, I know there’s a cost of living crisis but you need to stop letting him live rent free in your head! :)
All the aforesaid detail rather explains why Mick Proscuitto hasn't yet appeared with his usual Wednesday Aminex gloom laden financial report. RJ may well have to think about the fake news thread .
Page 51 of the 2022 Annual Report shows the Gross Unused Tax Losses. It says these losses can be carried forward indefinitely, but may only be offset against taxable gains or taxable profits earned from the same trade or trades. It's a huge amount, so little or no tax to pay for a very long time.
Ireland $13,492,000
UK $23,166,000
RoW $73,452,000
Total $110,110,000
http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/Aminex%20PLC%202022%20Annual%20Report%20and%20Accounts.pdf
So my understanding is that NT1 & NT2 will provide $1m monthly income for NT1 & NT2 as a combined figure
Then CH1 will provide an additional $1 million a month
And that it’s very possible these figures could increase, depending on additional gas flows
On top of that I note Crusty reported that they added that:
- AEX has a considerable value of accumulated "Tax losses" that would mean that once earning income the company would be able to claim tax exemptions for an extended period and therefore earn "exceptional" profit
All sounds very positive
Yep, come the year end and the money could start to be coming in, it's been a long time but it looks like we're nearly there.
NT-2 could be connected to the gas pipeline before CH-1 has finished drilling and testing. Just depends on timing of the pipeline and timing of the drill. NT-2 is ready to produce, it just needs connecting to a pipeline.
Yes, fingers crossed oh and the toes. Lol
Ara and aminex know whats down there , and I am sure this will come good on the next drill , ara do not waste millions of pounds on a maybe . some things are worth waiting for , and it has been a very long wait ,but its begining to look like later this year could be are time .
As for the deal, lol, well that depends on your position of strength at the time, doesn't it ?
No obviously not free, but it has been all bought and paid for, out of the wisdom knowledge perseverance and luck of the old AEX board that discovered and went on to show/demonstrate the vast potential/value of the Ntorya discovery.
There is no free carry, what are you on about , I just do not see giving 50% of the asset away as a free carry and I very much doubt any investor in aminex would call it a freeee carry .
Stop asking dumb questions then.
This really is boring RJ. You call yourself a shareholder, but very obviously don't want Aminex to be successful. admit it !
You're losing it Tanz. I thanked Crusty for his objective assessment. Soon you'll be out searching for the lost plot with drewky. Yes, crusty rates this as a buy, but we all have differing attitudes to risk.
As to the free carry, I was asking how much of it has been spent. Not much on pipework or drill hire for sure.
Some here still include the total as an Aminex asset.
Roger,
Great, thanks for confirming!
Crusty has it right $1,000,000 per month to Aminex is what we were told.
If any are not happy with that as a start, then a head wobble is in order.
CP,
That's great, thanks!
$12m = £9,166,603 per annum for NT1+2 = 0.217p per share revenues
£24m = £18,333,206 per annum for NT1+2+CH1 = 0.434p per share revenues
Based on that being for 40mmscfd and 80mmscfd then 140mmscfd would be worth 0.7595p per share revenues.
Very low operating costs. "The Company saw a small increase of 5% in headline G&A for the year of US$0.14 million compared to 2021, but a decrease in base running costs (which excludes non-cash and one-off items), before recharges, to US$1.46 million for the year"
The revenues would soon give AEX a solid cash pile. So 2p looks easy enough, 10p to 15p possible with full field development though.
Accidentally hit an oil trap and that's a different story, one which I'm happy to hold to full field development for, just in case, nothing to lose as they say.