Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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I’m out at 98p folks, got a better offer of income at 18%, will let the confused noise on REITS settle before considering getting back in
Hi broomtree
This is happened to quite a number of dividend paying companies hold.
DEC, NESF for example but are not the same sector at all as AEWU.
So this could be more market wide relating to yields going down.
However, I have the luxury of a free holding acquired from trading the pandemic dip, so my main concern is the safety of the dividend, but I will look to invest again if the SP drops to 89p again.
Cheers
What a difference two months makes! Confess I’m getting twitchy about future for REITS with even a mild recession possible… Got out of RGL and NRR before recent pull back but this has held up better though getting close to my 10% cut off
Currently moved to a small premium and recovered well after the NAV fall so there’s demand there
I think the reality is that until AEWU is trading at a premium to NAV they'll put any fundraising on the back burner. They've said as much before. There are investment opportunities out there and they'd love to do a fund raising but they will not do so at a discount to NAV (unless it is imperative). Last year they expressed frustration that share didn't trade at a premium exactly for this reason (it's holding back expansion and liquidity). C'est la vie.
Was their answer in the live and informative presentation today.
For me as an investor that question needed answering.
No need for more extra finances to get them through 2023 and looking to expand.
IMO hold/accumulate.
Expect the sp to drop at least 2p at open assuming no other news
This has been a great divi payer through very difficult times and I’ve held it for years. I did sell when it went over £1.30 as the value was looking stretched and it was simply too good a capital gain to miss. I started buying back in at £1.05 and was well above water by yesterday! Not good news today but not entirely unexpected given the wider macro picture. I may add a bit if it continues to fall but bottom line divi looking secure… let the NAV do it’s thing, I think the bad news is now in the price
Interesting range of views! I've added to my holding this morning because I think the drop is overdone based on the information provided, and I'm placing my trust in the management to deliver on their promise of a fully-covered dividend by Q3. To be honest, even if the divi dropped to 1.5p/qtr I still think it would be a good return on my investment, and that should be relatively easy to achieve.
How can you say that the share price "got ahead of itself" and keep a straight face? Simple fact, AEWU's share price is either at a premium or discount to the NAV. The NAV has gone down, through no fault/action on the part of the managers, and the share price has followed suit. The share price was previously trading at, or around, 120p because that's what the NAV was at that point. The macroeconomic climate has changed. Whether AEWU will respresent good value at 90p depends. If NAVs keep depressed for a long period then it's likely to start to feed through to rents and/or the ability of AEWU to raise rents. Likewise, whilst the share price obstinantly trades at a discount to NAV (whether it be good or bad times) then the scope for SCRIP dividends and/or future capital raises remains zero and ultimately the managers will start to ask whether there is any point in continuing like VSL (would wind up be a better option).
I think AEWU is a well managed REIT and hopefully they will be able to cover the current dividend from REIT income alone from Q3 onwards but ulimately there has to be question mark over the dividend if the current turmoil persists into the longer term.
I'm a shareholder and think its way too early to assume that the NAV will continue to fall (there is still demand out there) but there is little or nothing that management can do affect the current macroeconomic situation. The worst that management can do in the meantime is lock AEWU into new, sub-optimal rental agreements in the short term as potential new renters try to opportunistically reset the starting rentals based on current NAVs (which may mean that that Q3 target may not be met).
Treacherous waters: yesterday the yield was 7.62% and today the SP plunges 7.9%. Not great for income investors who bought yesterday. No reason why NAV shouldn't fall further.
Share price had got ahead of itself. Like many shares, holders will have more disappointments this year as earning and valuations are revised.
However if aewu drops to 90p again, I would definitely top up at that point.
I was looking to add until the latest earnings call when Butt said something profoundly stupid about ESG so I held off.
But it feels like they are a better investment than other REITs that trade at significantly bigger discounts with unclear plans about how the gaps will be closed. At this stage I feel a HOLD is appropriate. After all, the viability of the business model depends much on the UK economy....And that's risky enough...
I agree Gavster, not a great update. However, the company has been saying for some time now that the dividend would be fully covered by 3rd qtr this year, assuming deployment of funds at hand, and the update re industrial holdings makes for interesting reading. At under 1p the Trust is currently yielding over 8%, might be a good opportunity to add?
Not a great start to 2023. Dividend not fully covered and we're back below 100p.
Here is hoping that 2023 see's a steady but decent rise in share price. Not going to set targets but I would like to see a decent rise for AEWU. Continued good luck to all on this board be you investors, potential investors or those just watching. Good luck and success to one and all. Per ardua ad astra!!!! Rgds Saintly
Will be interesting to see if there is cross buying following the news from VSL for those wanting the divi
Today's call was informative but noticeably short of Alex Short in my view. More value to be expected as deals close and I feel the pipeline is attractive. Any opinion on this please??
The thing that put me off was a question I asked about ESG following a slide they showed which detailed what they are looking at when determining the ESG profile. I asked if this was a regulatory requirement or a voluntary and was told the UK government is now prescribing this (a bunch of really stupid questions if you ask me). So far so good. But the additional commentary I got was flabbergasting. It is one thing to follow the regulation (I implemented Mifid2 at a bank...) but it is quite another to believe the Government's b/s which clearly the deputy PM did with some moral commentary based on, in my view, nothing. I now worry about this investment as until today I was quite happy to double up. I have gone through a lot of pain the clean my (active) portfolio, and purchasing, as much as possible from political and social agendas I disagree with but now AEWU is on my warning list. The question is how much is ESG impacting returns for AEWU and what ESG alternatives are there globally?
There is no mention of a site in Wolverhampton, in todays results ???
Thanks for that TheTrotsky, it is a bit mysterious as you say. On the face of it, this has no bearing on AEWU and there's been no RNS as far as I can see, so why the news item? Perhaps all will become clear. This still looks a great investment, with or without an industrial estate in Wolverhampton.
Hi Krusty, I knew something was amiss ;-) I missed the word "Notes" but am still a little bit mystified by the news. As far as I'm able determine from the the latest accounts for the six months ended 30 September 2021, AEWU's property portfolio is held directly and there is no investment in the AEW UK Core Property Fund (and I don't see any subsequent announcement to suggest that they have invested in the Fund since). Ho-hum, no matter
TT, what it actually says is AEWU "Notes AEW UK Core Property Fund acquired the Four Ashes industrial estate in Wolverhampton for GBP12.8 million". AEWU UK Core Property Fund is not the REIT, it's a separate open-ended fund. I assume (but can't confirm) that AEWU holds units of the Core Property Fund, but it's the Core Property Fund that has a NAV of £355m, not the REIT. Hope that makes sense. K
* an initial yield of 8%
According to today's AEWU news the REIT has just bought an industrial estate in Wolverhapton for £12.8m with an initial yield. It then goes on to say that the fund had a NAV of £355m at 31 March! Would have been nice ;-)
Good to see they have actively capped the interest rate on the new facility! The rate they are paying may look extremely cheap in due course.