The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yeah, he's thinking of renaming the company AbErdEEn plc ;-)
Would love to see, or read Martin Gilberts assement of this,,,, which would never be allowed to be published?
I do not think it will be taken over. The volumes traded have been falling over the past few years. Even small trades are having a big affect on the share price.
I have confidence in Stephen Bird to turn this around. Todays announcement is good news. It means the divi is safe at 7.3p this Feb. He is taking steps to increase profits etc. The sector is out of favour and interest rates are high. When these start to come down the share price will go up. In the meantime enjoy an 8% reasonably secure return.
I am not worried about this share and less so after the announcement today.
What I worry about is when compnaies do not react to changing conditions or do not have a plan.
At least Stephen Bird has a plan.
I have been watching buys/sells on this share over the last few months. There have been a lot of substantial buys. I am not trying to talk this up, although I am a holder, but have felt for some time that we may be ripe for a take over? What do others think.
Every blessing
And the markets make me look a fool….now 11/250 and the decline flipped to a 3% rise….quite unbelievable.
Market is not impressed….SP change is 249/250 in the FT250.
Still ABDN has lots of liquid assets to maintain its dividend/shareholder returns as it can sell down its PHNX stake…..I think that will drag on PHNX for some time relative to other life assurance companies….
Continues to be a burden to hold this share.
They have identified 150m of additional savings over the 75m already in progress….bloated cost base would seem to be a generous description unless there is a lot of wishful thinking in the target….which we may never know because management changes the business and “new costs” allowed for the new business..
The ii business seems to be doing relatively well compared to other parts of the group…..but whether this is worth the £1.5bn is debatable - I am expecting a hefty write down of good will at some point.
Moodys downgrade, could be messy tomorrow
Stephen Bird resigning? Would push share price up, which the share buy-back has singularly failed to do.
ABDN update tomorrow should be very interesting.
Flagged up 10% of workforce to depart.
Today's 4% rise is presumably down to the announcement today:
"Event Date
abrdn plc intends to issue a pre-Close trading update at 7am on 24 January. The announcement will update on flows and trading during H2."
There is some reason for this, which we will see next Wednesday.
Onwards and upwards from here
SB did leave. A new CFO started in October.
I understand Stephanie Bruce wanted to leave in 2023.
No suitable opportunities have arisen elsewhere.
SP may be lower with her leaving.
Svend, If you are talking about the earnings forecast on Simply Wall Street, it is only £185m for 2026. Interactive is already generating half of that figure.
Having worked there for 9 months in 2021-2, it was clear that Bird has no strategy beyond flogging assets to get cash to continue the share buyback at inflated prices, hence the recent gains. Now that the buyback has stopped the shares are already halfway back to the September point if 155p. Bird was going to flog the active manager (about 70% of AUM) last year and they are trying to sell a commercial park in the Gyle (west of Edinburgh) for £126m at the moment. The line management is rubbish and HR are convinced that the new religion of "diversity" will save them. In a truly genius move just as they were replatforming, abrdn announced that the contact centre (somewhat key to two of the three vectors) was being sent to a desolate building in the Gyle, while the rest of the company stayed in a newly refurbished building in central Edinburgh - the result has been an exodus of experienced staff, just as they claimed to be recruiting 35 more staff and a net loss of AUA while almost everyone else was getting inflows. They proudly touted that a staff survey showed 70% backed Bird's strategy - assuming they knew what it was!
I think Bird is just trying to slim down to a Wealth Administrator, which will be taken over and he can retire with a nice cheque. The platform is supposed to be worth £1.4-1.7bn based on the figure being touted for Parmenion. Say ii is worth what abrdn paid (£1.5bn) and the rest of the business is not worth much by market assessment. Bird is almost at the end of his three year turnaround plan and not much has changed, due to a lack of strategy - as Panmure Gordon said last October following he break-up suggestion by Numis. The platform has fallen to the 8th most popular among IFAs and more platforms are coming, notably Scottish Widows.
As a middle manager, abrdn/Bird may have to take the risk of initiating the inevitable consolidation. I wondered about running the rule over the troubled Jupiter - it has a market cap of £480m, but does generate £45m in profit - about the same as ii did on takeover. Then there would be the savings from consolidating the fund management side. Even a total takeover cost of £600m would generate a 7.3% return, which is more than cash is earning now. I gather there is to be an emphasis on Emerging Markets - with a strong dollar and rising interest rates!
Yes it has
Has the buy back stopped.
I'd target M&G before Abrdn
I would be very surprised, at least as a complete business. For other mid-sized investment managers, it's probably too big/complex/messy to swallow. For large ones, it's not worth it. Could be broken up for parts but it's still a tangled mess and the question of who might absorb the investment management unit remains, unless Phoenix want to take their investment management in-house. But then they sold their previous in-house manager to Standard Life Investments so that would be mildly surprising.
Is ABRDN a takepver target?
Standard life is owned by Phoenix group not abdn?
Sorry, £14k not £14...
It would be good to see some improvement in Std Life pension funds. This year they reduced mine overnight by MORE than the contributions made in the previous 12 months?? That is a 'with profits' fund. Miserable performance yet the same type of policy with Pru has the same value, both having started 33 years ago, but £14k more paid into Std Life. That £14 has gone somewhere.
LLucan I agree I think the stigma the company received over its name change is overblown to the extent it's really ridiculous and patronising and I think that Stephen Bird has done a lot however would like to see the Chinese AUM side of the business florish.
I do appreciate that cash leaves the company and shares are cancelled so on the face of it there is no gain. But if you feel the shares are under valued then the company buying shares does make sense. Fewer shares available on the market should push the price up. I do think it would be lower without the buy back. IMHO the reason the share price is depressed from where I belive it should be is beacsue of the shorts at 4.5%. They are expecting a further fall in AUM.. I think this could be another bad half but over the next year I think it will improve. Interst rates start to fall pension contributions increase with a rise in wages etc.
ABD has 1.5 bill for ii 500 mill of phoenix shares and £1 billion in cash and other assets. That is £3 billion of Assets before one even considers the Fund management of £500 billion.
I think the share has a lot of potential.