Ariana Share Chat (AAU)

I have been using the lassonde curve for years. Of late it does not follow as it used to. My main thing is oil... point is the SP is not cut and dried as per Lassonde's view that all mining and oil ex stocks go through the valley of death. ECO atlantic is the latest in a series which have surprised me, giving a rocky road to first oil, but certainly not the valley of death that funded my first two btls. I wonder what it is that is making the valley of death more of a game of snakes and ladders.

‘The issue at Ariana is even further away. It may double over 6 months but ultimately it'll back down again as the timeline reality sets in.’

Before the pandemic directors of a company could talk up their company and prospects.

Now we have chat gbt and the likes and we can load the information in there and it highlights where weakness exists in a company within a minute. It also can compare to similar sized companies and across the industry as a whole.

Retail investors are a lot more savvy now.

Had we stayed on track in Turkiye I’m pretty sure we may have hit 10p, my target price, or beyond.

Never mind this still sits in my ISA and SIPP, what can we hit once all the projects are operating?

Morning LoB

As ever just my opinion, Xinhai would struggle to take over Ariana with their 10% holding, But with a DFS and with them then holding far more due to equity based stage payments for their work, and by exercising their contracted options, Xinhai's proportion of equity in the company would be significantly higher.

By a similar argument with an equity holding of closer to 20% than 10% it would be difficult for a third party to make and offer successfully without Xinhai's cooperation.

The implication of your post is correct. AAU shareholders are looking for the exit as they don't see develpment of a mine until the next decade. If Xinhai do want the company then provided ex Rockover shareholders are happy, I can't see a decently generous bid by them could fail. The actual 'original' board members (Sener, de Villiers) don't imo have anywhere near enough to block.

I wont mention Burnley!

So, in reply to Strangerstill's post, why wouldn't Xinhai look to offer, say, 3p per share and take out Ariana for less than £100m and effectively buy over $1b of gold from Dokwe alone? (If not Xinhai, why wouldn't any other producer be looking at making an offer for AAU?)

I've been here a looooong time (along with other posters e.g. johnpwh, Claret&Blue etc etc etc) and been through some very promising times before and still don't understand the logic as to why the sp remains low and yet still no other business has looked to acquire AAU given the resources that the company has.

Ah well, I'll sit tight and continue my (forlorn?) hope for better times.

It’s a very niche proposition at present and under many radars.

I’d be interested in selling out and taking a part cash and part royalty interest. It’s just the territory risk in my eyes.

Sell then ya grumpy old man!

As I write Greatland Gold up 10% in the past 5 days. Ariana 0%.

We have 2.656bn ordinary shares in issue.

Dowke DFS not due until Q1 27, we will not rerate until release.

Possible funding and dilution issues once dfs is released.

Uncertainty on what price we will achieve for our remaining Zenit.

Investors had already gone through this process with the Turkish operations only for the rug to be pulled.

Uranium and battery metals are also in the market for shareholders money which they weren’t when we were a Turkish jurisdiction outfit.

Thanks Stranger. An interesting read. Could certainly happen, time will tell.

John

From the Xinhai web site.

Shandong Xinhai Mining Group Co., Ltd. (“Xinhai Mining”), founded in 1997, is an international enterprise with nearly three decades of mining expertise. Its dual-engine strategy combines “mineral resources investment and development” with “full-industry-chain mining services.” Committed to integrated mining solutions through its EPC+M+O model, the Group provides global clients with one-stop, end-to-end services, including mineral processing tests, mine design, equipment manufacturing and supply, construction for mining, mineral processing, and tailings storage facilities (TSF), equipment installation, mine construction management, and production operation, empowering clients to maximize mineral resource value.

Looking at projects that Xinhai is involved in Xinhai typically takes about a 10% interest in the client company and provides the services to bring the project into production. Xinhai does provide funding at competitive rates with the funding secured on the project. If xinhai funded Dokwe than as long as Ariana can repay the loan Xinhai will own 10% of Ariana shares and would probably operate the mine and processing plant under contract. Ariana currently has about £28 million in cash, with the shares in Zenit valued at about £14 million which will probably be sold when funding is needed (Zenit is going public so the shares should be easily traded). The metallurgical work and DFS are already paid for so that in Q1 next year Ariana will have a DFS, revised reserves and access to a substantial amount of cash. Ariana is already talking to funders (according to KS) and I see no reason why Ariana would not go on to develop a 100% owned mine at Dokwe. If a takeover bid was launched, I suspect that the Board would resist unless the offer was close to the DCF value of Dokwe. It appears that Xinhai has a good track record at delivering mining projects in a relatively short time. My prediction is that Ariana will develop Dokwe as a 100% owned project and that Xinhai will operate the mine and processing plant.

So it’s not just mine either, seems strange as never a problem before?

Seems like someone is taking notice.

SIPP to SIPP

Will probably give him tax relief circa £30k.......and future gains protected from CGT! ??.why not?

Https://share.transistor.fm/s/890b2fc5

Audio note from Zeus following ARIANA Resources Dokwe PFS.

I asked chatgpt

1.6Moz of gold is a serious mid-tier-scale reserve. It is bigger than KEFI’s Tulu Kapi reserve, much bigger than SRB and AAZ’s stated gold reserve/resource base.

Great post mate.. Dokwe was only real reason I’d got interested in this. I know some old holders feel Turkey was sold for a song, but it’s completely derisked the future for now.. and retained enough to continue the “book” value when. it goes public.. it’s not like Ariana was getting cash via dividends from it. But Dokwe.. is a completely different beast. Yes, it’s likely we might have to forfeit a % stake in it to Xinhai to get into production.. but that’s what exploration leads to in general. Xinhai are a very competent partner to have when it comes to construction of a mine.

The Optimised Pre-Feasibility Study Presentation slides from yesterdays AGM, available on the Ariana Website, are a breath of fresh air.

We even have a Gantt chart!! Can you believe it? No I thought not. All those years saying they couldn't provide one as milestones were out of their control. Well now with the Chinese & Mr Atkins they are in control thank goodness.

As Tom Winnifrith indicated this week, the DFS is scheduled for Q1 2027 and there could be a Resource/Reserve update for Dokwe in advance of its completion, in Q4 this year.

Financing is scheduled for Q1/Q2 2027 and Plant construction from Q3 - 2027. Tom said first gold pour from Q1 - 2028. With the Chinese behind this, I think that is feasible. They have an amazing track-record for fast tracking mine builds.

The PFS numbers look strong and show us significantly undervalued at 2p

Reserve up 42% at 1.13m ozs. Life of Project - 20yrs. NPV(pre tax) with 10% discount US$1056m (Our Mkt Cap. is $55m )

Peak production 100,000 ozs pa

Pre tax IRR of 92%

Cashflow LoP = US$ 1993m

Pay-back period 1.2 years

And Capital costs to build the mine coming in at US$164m.

The Slides also state "Further rationalisation of our portfolio" - " Opportunities being investigated for the advancement of WTR & Venus with a view to crystallising embedded value"

All of a sudden it is starting to look investible. I put all of this significant change down to 2 key things;

1. The undoubted professionalism & experience of our new Chinese partner

2. Bringing on board experienced Michael Atkins as the new Non Executive Chairman.

The next 6 months or so leading up to the DFS, could see quite a step change in our valuation in my opinion. I can't see any reason why that won't be the case unless Zimbabwe causes a problem.

I believe Zeus have issued a new updated Note as well and upped their Share Price target to 9p

About 1m available at 2.1p then nt nada

maybe we finally thinning out the sells

Raised their fair value to 9p per share.

We have an expectation that once in production extensions to the orebody(s) can be found (e.g. Dokwe NE extension) and that Dokwe Central will grow bigger and may even become an underground mine once the open pit is exhausted. We will know more of the exciting exploration potential as Ariana goes through its drilling and exploration over the next 6 months or so. Suffice it to say there is enough properly categorised mineralisation, in our view, to justify the mine – as the PFS numbers show. It is also our experience of the geology of Zimbabwean mines that the starting reserve is very much the minimum; we expect mine life extensions in what is a new gold district in our view.

Is anyone going to the AGM today? Any feedback welcome. Do try and speak to the receptive new Non Executive Chairman - Michael Atkins.

This comes on the back of a much more business focused interview with Barry ( worth a listen - see link below) ) and the new updated Zeus Note with 9p Share Price target and apparently this is just for starters. Could we be coming out of years in the doldrums?

Https://stockhead.com.au/resources/explorers-podcast-revised-ariana-resources-pfs-shows-high-margin-dokwe-gold-dig/

https://kalkine.com.au/news/mining/why-arianas-asxaa2-zimbabwe-project-just-became-one-of-asxs-most-intriguing-gold-stories

Can’t believe we haven’t broken 2.5p yet. Half of the mkt cap is cash and Dokwe would sell right now for £100mil minimum

Asx closed nicely up

Ai telling me my worst case here is a 300% gain :)

Trying to get both feet in the twos by close

Johnp. I think he is suffering with shock at the speed Dokwe is moving forward at and so it’s spoiled his fun over many years being able to moan and complain constantly now his life has no meaning, it’s all very very sad. But for me it’s ok.

Where is that miserable little man with the big nose these days?

Thanks for sharing this VanVan.

TW has long-term religion about a number of things and one of them is Ariana. He's been wrong for years if we look at the SP as evidence.

I sold out of Ariana after the terrible Ozaltin deal but now it seems the company has turned a corner. I believe that the Chinese will ensure that things get done in Zimbabwe and now, for the first time in years, Ariana looks like a reasonable punt to me.

I'm back in with a modest position. GLA

Tom Winnifrith spoke to Kerim Sener today and covered it in his Bearcast. He seemed much more positive and senses the refreshing upside, both the Chinese and the new Chairman seem to be bringing to the table.

What hit home for me was Tom saying at last we are getting clarity re: costs, timing and funding. It is behind a paywall so I shouldn't say too much.

Zeus currently have a BUY note with a SP target of 7.9p, but apparently they are going to remodel this in the light of the PFS. So we can expect an increased Share Price target.

But the big news was the dates, Tom suggested.

Q1 - 2027 for the DFS - we knew that, but all seems on course, and is fully funded and of course this could be a transformational moment.

But did I hear the Chinese could make 2028 feasible to be in production, and that could even come Q1 2028 apparently. No doubt those of you going to the AGM on Friday can get confirmation that this is a realistic timeframe. I believe it all boils down to the experience and focus of our new Chinese partners, plus the business acuman of our new highly experienced Non Executive Chairman.

From the new note:

Ariana has delivered a truly impressive PFS update for the 100%-owned Dokwe project, with a 42% increase in Ore Reserves to 1.13Moz and a pre-tax NPV10 of $1,056m underpinning what looks like an outstanding scalable, long-life, high-margin gold project. The decision to increase throughput to 2.5Mtpa, informed by strategic optimisation work, has materially enhanced project economics, driving peak production of 100koz/yr and total life-ofproject output of 1.1Moz gold. We expect through the DFS and FEED process that cost savings will be found. With an already competitive AISC of $1,995/oz, a low pre-production capex of just $164M, and Ariana holding $38m in cash and assets with zero debt, the pathway to development looks well-defined and will be increasingly de-risked. Ongoing drilling will form the next catalyst with a major update in Q1 2027 with the DFS. On current evidence Dokwe is shaping up as one of the more compelling development-stage gold projects in Africa.

Given how undervalued AAU/AA2 has been relative to Dokwe's perceived scale, a strong PFS could finally force a market recalibration. IMHO

Courtesy Rennicks on ADVFN

This is potentially a very significant development and, in my view, the wording is more bullish than a routine administrative trading halt.

1. They halted specifically for the completion of the revised PFS

The study is finished, the numbers are now market-sensitive,

and ASX believes the information could materially affect trading.

2. Timing suggests the outcome is likely stronger than expected

I've been tracking the Dokwe drilling closely, and the recent intercepts already hinted the original ~1.1Moz pit shell may materially expand.

The revised PFS could potentially include:

larger mineable ounces,

improved strip ratio,

longer mine life,

better recoveries,

higher annual production,

or materially improved economics at current gold prices.

Given gold is now trading vastly above the assumptions used in many earlier studies, even unchanged resources could generate dramatically improved NPVs and IRRs.

3. Why the ASX halt matters more than AIM

The ASX market is generally much more responsive to:

development-stage gold projects,

PFS/DFS economics,

NPV comparisons,

and "ounces in the ground" valuation metrics.

That matters because AA2 has traded at a huge disconnect to what Dokwe could be worth on a peer basis.

If the revised PFS demonstrates something along the lines of:

1.4–1.7Moz mine inventory,

120–150koz/year production potential,

strong IRR at current gold price,

scalable operation,

manageable capex,

then the market may begin valuing Dokwe as a standalone African gold development project rather than simply attaching optionality value to it.

4. The halt may also imply accompanying strategic news

The wording only references the PFS, but I would not rule out:

funding pathway commentary,

Xinhai involvement,

development partnership structure,

staged build strategy,

revised production scenarios,

or DFS acceleration.

Ariana has been steadily positioning Dokwe toward institutional credibility:

Xinhai involvement,

drilling expansion,

DFS prep,

site visits,

engineering progression,

increasing technical sophistication.

This feels like the first time the market may see the project presented as a genuine future producer rather than just a resource asset.

5. What I'll be watching for in the announcement

The key metrics that could move valuation materially:

Metric Important Threshold

Post-PFS NPV >US$300m starts becoming difficult for market to ignore

IRR >30% very strong

Production profile >100koz/year meaningful re-rate territory

Mine life 10+ years ideal

Resource growth commentary Critical

Gold price assumptions Huge sensitivity here

Capex Whether manageable without excessive dilution

Payback period Under 3 years would be excellent

Expansion potential Could justify multi-phase development

6. My read on the halt itself

This does not feel like a defensive halt.

It feels much more like:

"We have materially price-sensitive econ

“ Looks to me like it's basically another placing in disguise”

not really mate, it’s part of the original investment announcement in December. it’s wasn’t unknown lol

Looks to me like it's basically another placing in disguise. Issuing more shares to xinhai at the equivalent of 1.5 pence per share. A massive discount to the current 1.9 pence per share.

Halting shares on ASX is a thing, doesn’t happen here. been plenty co’s over the years halted their Asx listing while Uk stays open. Aussie rules are different for known price sensitive news

True but Wednesday in oz is late tonight our time. Seems odd to suspend the asx listing but not suspend lse shares

Perhaps they are still on a trading halt until another rns re dowke maybe tomorrow. It does say up to wednesday 27th.

Let’s see. The trading halt specifically mentioned an RNS relating to the completion of a revised PFS study

Mmm…is that it? Nothing about Dokwe?

Interesting,...Wednesday 27thMay 2026 mentioned in the *TRADING HALTREQUEST*.

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/aa2/ariana-resources-plc/news/trading-halt-3356585.html

BW

Had to change my handle to Plasybryn. Same as I use on ADVFN. Something strange happened with this LSE account. & had to re-set. Just in case anyone wondered where Van Van had gone too!!

I expect it is due to the Bank Holiday. Don’t want ASX to trade on news ahead of AIM perhaps. Does it suggest the news is significant? Big increase in the PFS? We shall see. Good to release it ahead of the AGM. Have you voted on the resolutions?

Oooooh interesting. Fingers crossed for tomorrow morning then!

What the hell does this mean ?

TRADING HALT REQUEST

Ariana Resources plc (ASX Code: AA2) requests that a trading halt be placed on its securities immediately pursuant to ASX Listing Rule 17.1 pending the release of an announcement to the market regarding the completion of a revised Pre-feasibility Study ('PFS") for the 100%-owned Dokwe Gold Project in Zimbabwe.

I bought in today but think will be topping up shortly while it still stays at these levels.

Thanks for this. The company is awash with cash, gotta think more investments are to come

I read that, as a positive RNS ( https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAU/sale-of-13-6-interest-in-zenit-for-us-19-5m-cash/17595422 ),...Guidance given in the RNS:

Dr. Kerim Sener, Managing Director, commented:

"We are delighted to have reached this agreement with Özaltın to partially monetise our interest in Zenit at a strategically important point in Ariana's growth trajectory. The transaction reflects our disciplined capital allocation strategy and active portfolio optimisation, with a clear focus on accelerating the development of the flagship Dokwe Gold Project while minimising shareholder dilution.

​

"Zenit is a mature, cash-generative minority investment in producing operations. This transaction crystallises significant embedded value from that holding while retaining meaningful upside exposure, enabling Ariana to redeploy capital into a potentially company-making, 100%-owned gold development project with long-term growth potential.

​

"Dokwe is a transformational asset for Ariana, which represents a large-scale, long-life asset, underpinned by strong economics, as demonstrated in the pre-feasibility study update announced in 2025. As the project advances, it continues to attract significant industry interest.

​

"This transaction, which is now complete and not subject to further approvals of any kind, provides substantial non-dilutive funding to support the rapid advancement of Dokwe through feasibility and development, strengthening our balance sheet and preserving shareholder value amid increasingly uncertain global macro-economic conditions."

BW

Guidfarr

"Zimbabwe property has questionable value"

Who is questioning it exactly, apart from you? It has 1.4m+ oz of gold. Clown.

Guidfarr

"What assets"

Here you go

Europe

https://arianaresources.com/projects/major-investments

Stakes in:

Western Tethyan Resources Limited (WTR)

Venus Minerals Ltd

Australia:

https://arianaresources.com/projects/asgard-metals

Stakes in:

Altai Resources

Annamite Resources

Pallas Resources

Panther Metals

Zenit

Remaining stake valued at $14.2m

Wtf do i care about you? I was in Ariana and have every right to rant! This was not a deal in shareholders interests.

If you think I'll debase myself by engaging with you, you're mistaken.

Just a note to forum members that the filter option (to be used for trolls like guidfarr who's post history is rather telling) is surprisingly effective ;)

Excerpt below:

Ariana today announces the sale of a 13.6% stake in its Zenit partnership to the majority shareholder Özaltin Holding. Zenit operates two mines in Turkey: Kiziltepe and Tavşa set to produce c.30koz gold at full production. The sale represents gross cash of $19.5m (net $17.2m after estimated local taxes) and will leave Ariana with a 9.9% interest in Zenit and a board representative. This reinforces our view that Ariana is a development company and is looking to fast track its Dokwe gold mine project in Zimbabwe – which Zeus view as a company maker. Post sale Ariana has £29m ($39.1m) in cash (and cash value of its remaining investment in Zenit) which we expect to get Ariana to the completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) – which is well underway. Ariana will still be entitled to dividends from Zenit out of the profits from the production of gold (and silver), but we stress, this sale is good business, and a well-timed partial exit, bringing forward cashflow and giving Ariana a cash pile with which to advance Dokwe. We see a fair value at 7.9p per share and view the focus on Dokwe as a strength.

Zeus increase its valuation (Exhibit 1) very slightly from 7.8p/sh to 7.9p/sh on reduced risk but note that the sale leaves Ariana with non-dilutive funding for a significant advancement of Dokwe. We also point out that a gold price of $3,000/oz is used in our DCF valuation of Dokwe and only shows production of up to 76koz gold per year – if Dokwe can be brought in quickly it will obviously benefit from a higher gold price (in our view) and we expect, following recent RNS’ from Ariana, that Dokwe could be c.100koz gold per year. The 100% owned Dokwe project will have a big impact on our valuation going forward. We expect news soon.

Good luck. You're need it with a board of directors that sell the golden goose just when its finally ready to start laying its golden eggs. You can only sell the asset once. An undeveloped resource in Zimbabwe that will require hundreds of millions to build is very different to ready-built mine. Not many want to invest in a place like Zimbabwe. Namid Minerals is a good story of what can go wrong - they have mines in Zimbabwe too and one mine is supposed to have a lot of resource (4 moz plus) but they don't have the capital to pour into it (they also have another mine in Zimbabwe but which is close to depleting)

Poor reaction today has nothing to do with Ariana and is more a reflection of the sorry state of the UK markets in general (despite what a couple of stale ex holders living in imagination land will tell you).

Value will prevail here, and sooner than many might think. It’s all about Dowke and today’s deal tells you that management agrees.

No debt, 💸 plenty of cash and a potential reserve increase that would make EDV blush.

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. This is the start of major news flow.

Good question. Either way I've taken advantage and added more this afternoon. Would feel rude not to.

Totting up this $17m cash injection announced today, together with earlier cash from Xinhai a few months ago, massively de-risks the company - to an extent I don't believe is anywhere near reflected in today's market cap. And we're still left with far more on the books to realise value from.

It's quite striking when you look at peers to get a sense of value here. Cora in Mali has less gold than Dowke - yet that is valued ~50% more.

With our updated MRE coming, factoring recent drilling results and signs the mineralisation goes much further than previously envisaged, I would say we stand a very good chance of increasing that 1.4m oz even further. Positive news on that front - with any luck should - take this into blue sky territory.

London Stock Exchange does it again.

Why o Why is this trading at 1.9 when in Aus its trading equivalent of 2.3.

Maybe we need some of those down under to snap up a few cheap ones here.

I liked their Turkish asset and hoped that Ariana would finally start getting some returns/love. Instead we get this ^^^^

That's why I feel so bitter. Turkey is okay as a jurisdiction and gold mines fetch high prices. However what Ariana fetched in this case was a pittance which makes me even more angry.

Guidfarr

"Enjoy getting rugged."

Why are you being so spiteful? You are a stain here.

Talking about this country being dodgy while ramping KOD and B2Gold in Mail! you could not make it up. And $MEX, in heart of cartel country. Seen what happened to those Viszla silver workers? Meanwhile MEX also had their license stripped away if you actually read their company reports - and are now using shareholders like you as exit liquidity to offload stakes in their own private companies, while printing themselves unlimited options. Absolute clown.

Out with the old in with the new. it’s all about Dokwe for me, and what our deal with Xhinai will look like. They’re no newbies in Zimbabwe.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DUpOxMzj3Zx/

It’s hard to equate it all, Ariana have evidently lost all interest in Turkey and seem just simply to be going through the motions whilst extracting remaining value to proceed at Dowke.

All investment come with a great level of risk.

My question is where will the SP be come 2030?

Check the 5 year chart for a better picture of the stock price performance. All this while gold has been making record highs.

Only had 200,000 in but this was disappointing news today. ATB

Makes sense. 19.5m is about 40% of current market cap

Up 22% on ASX. They like the news.