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Started: VanVan, Today 13:49
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, Today 19:27
Yes exactly, ‘at that time’ and circumstances have significantly changed since then.
Turkey is alway in a geopolitically hot zone and seems to be breaking off towards BRICS, I am 100% behind Dowke for this reason.
As soon as we get an ASX listing I am going to lump in there.
If you are undecided how to Vote and want to hear answers to questions that still trouble you, from the horses mouth, why not delay your vote till after Monday and the Investor Meet Co. event? There is still plenty of time to vote.
I agree however that these events are far from ideal as there is no right of reply and the Company can so easily regurgitate the same old motherhood statements leaving investors still surrounded by fog.
It seems they have been pressurised into this latest Q & A by "big" private shareholders, as the Co. communication to date on this transformational event has, as always, left so many unanswered questions. Issues the Co. should have realised would cause consternation, like dilution, like potential overhangs, like cancelling the dividend, like lack of details on funding and finance etc. And I suspect, whereas many investors took the Ozaltin dilution for cash transaction 3 odd years ago on trust, this time they realise they need to delve deeper, as that didn't play out, certainly share price wise, as expected. The goal of the Partners at that time was to become "one of the premier gold mining companies operating in Turkey", but the lack of progress at Salinbas, which was then circa 3 years from production, and Hizarliyayla, which I don't feel much clearer on even now, just didn't play out. They used the words "accelerated development" at the time for the Turkish portfolio, but even Tavsan, which according to them, should have been in production Q3 2023, now needs even more cash to complete by late 2024, which is frankly disappointing.
But let's see how Monday goes. Keep an open mind and let's hope they address all the questions head on. Fingers crossed.
Started: VanVan, 14 Jun 2024 19:25
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 14 Jun 2024 21:38
Do you have a link to Zak’s interview?
Shares are shares, maybe his wife will decide to keep them because she is smart and knows a good thing.
But the overhang should sort itself out if this is a good company.
Tom Winnifrith did a Bearcast this morning covering the potential large overhang from the Rockover director who is in a divorce and may have to hand over up to half his shares or use them as collateral.
Then in the afternoon Zak interviewed Kerim.
And on Monday of course we have the Investor Meet Co Q & A. Hope you have submitted your questions.
Started: Troajan, 14 Jun 2024 10:33
Last post: johnpwh, 14 Jun 2024 17:57
Thanks for the link
Started: VanVan, 12 Jun 2024 16:44
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 14 Jun 2024 09:26
'but of p*** poor decision making with the result that the financial performance and return to shareholders is miserable.'
When you read an article like this, you then realise how absolutely dumb and thick the vast majority of the people are. They refuse to acknowledge why their investments and life has gone no where in recent years but actually support the folly they have just endured and find fault elsewhere.
https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/russias-approach-to-the-future-world-order
Some people, well a pair of people on here, they are just so dumb!
🫡
@Rick123, I salute your vision.
Unfortunately there are a few miserable old bu33ers on here who no longer have time on their side to watch this grow and are feeling their mortality alongside other personal issues which is always behind them.
It has gone down. Me I have bought in today and will constantly be adding at these levels. Each to their own strategy. Had this on my short term watchlist and it’s down on that so I figured it’s time to go for it if I believe in my research. GL and do your own research before committing.
Good news is that the only way is up from here. Since you wrote that Rick that the SP has gone down.
Long term holders with large holdings are dumping now I believe, hence the large sales of hundreds of thousands at a time. There is no confidence in timescales and the unknown dilution due to the ASX listing.
2.4.tp.buy? long term.holders are, in my opinion,.dumping now. this is all the fault of.a.managemnt expecting shareholders.to follow.their.decisions like sheep. vote for a takeover..no one with sense believes their.estimates to.prodyction because we have been bull****ted before. no indication of the asx dilution.
Started: PAUL1DEANO, 12 Jun 2024 09:27
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 12 Jun 2024 09:27
So activity commenced back in October last year.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AAU/western-tethyan-diamond-drilling-commences-tcgcu4uh90wgj7i.html
'point to the potential for a buried porphyry system, which will now be tested through an initial drilling programme.'
It would be nice to be updated on this initial drill.
Now we move onto Asgard.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AAU/asgard-portfolio-update-afxl8s1m0fa2i1g.html
What is the value of this enterprise to the AAU SP?
PALM I have fallen out of touch with, they spun it out as far as I can remember between Aus and Can. I received a letter from my broker about some sort of consolidation but for which side I am not too sure.
Mind you I am quite enjoying the prospect of what Pallas resources can achieve in Kazakhstan in their Soviet Era operations there. I have been taking an interest in Kazakstan and it seems an up and coming country with modern infrastructure being developed each year. I hope we expand our footprint there.
Last post: johnpwh, 12 Jun 2024 07:45
He's been green longer than I remember!
I've added Shempsky. He'll probably clog the filter with his defecations!
Started: dvharrison, 4 Jun 2024 07:54
Last post: desertjoe, 11 Jun 2024 14:48
C & B (and John). Like I said a little while back I dumped my remaining shares in this lot as soon as they went over 2.5p again. I admit I had bought in again last Christmas with all the hype on here and RNS (usual " pleased to" etc). I can see Dr. K looking for directorships elsewhere and further improving lifestyle. Dunno whether you've noticed but that Harry -Agnosti (or whatever his suffixed name is), associated with the fantastic Venus project , hasn't exactly shined with his Kefi company (looking back at their charts). Then there's Kosovo for a big office choice and all those Serbs really upset about losing their former Province. No need to remind you that they have much sympathy from the Russian Federation (which is now mostly just Pootin & Lukashenko). Kerim should have based his "Western" office in Istanbul. As to Salinbas - well it is rather a difficult terrain and climate to cope with so don't reckon on income for a long time. Maybe it will be sold off!
Yes, certainly will be voting against it
Hi Claret..Not surprised as I know you have been fed up.a long time. Guess you are voting against?
As you know I never wanted to invest in Zimbabwe, but now we know its going to be a minimum 5 year to construction so maybe add a few more years on to that, so I sold a chunk this morning. My only hope on AAU in the short term say 3 years is they sell off Salinbas, but I may have sold them all by then. 8 years almost wasted.
Think many of us have had enough of this jam.tomorrow.company. Too many missed deadlines,.many by years. Now we are expected to vote in favour.of a big deal with no definate date for production and with no indication of how.much more.dilution will be caused by the ASX listing..Was previously going to vote in favour. I.think.I.have changed my mind now, unless.more details are published to convince me otherwise. I want a definitive target of 5 years.maximim and 10% maximum dilution
Started: dvharrison, 6 Jun 2024 08:47
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 10 Jun 2024 14:34
It’s painful to endure, the man is not fit enough to be President and the world can see it.
"Did Biden Just Take Another DUMP In His Pants?"
"Never in my wildest dreams did I think I’d have to cover the (alleged) President of the United States and ANALyze whether or not he just did another poopsie doopsie in his pants.
And yet here we are.
And yes, it’s an actual news story — not something I am just making up."
https://en-volve.com/2024/06/06/did-biden-just-take-another-dump-in-his-pants/
Let’s face it, Ukraine has been the unwinding of Biden.
Trump is the only gracious hope USA has of pulling out of that theatre and stop wasting USA tax payer dollars.
The world was quite calm and peaceful under Trump and under Biden we nearly have WW3.
As for Africa, it is a geo political proxy for these conflicts. A continent that does make me feel uneasy to operate in but hopefully where we are it is relatively stable.
Just waiting for news on Kosovo now, again another proxy region.
I can only see upside for Ariana from here and I am very happy to hold.
"It’s Trump vs WWIII – Martin Armstrong"
"Let’s start with Biden’s new job approval rating from Martin Armstrong’s “Socrates” program, which is now only 6% to 7%. Armstrong explains, “It’s the old story of draining the swamp, but now, the swamp is an ocean"
"Are the Deep State globalist Democrats panicking over the 6% to 7% Biden approval rating? Top people on both sides know this is an accurate number. With about four months to go before the 2024 Election, are they now panicking over these dismal approval numbers? Armstrong says, “Oh, yes, they are panicking. I have been in politics for more than 40 years. I know how it works"
https://usawatchdog.com/its-trump-vs-wwiii-martin-armstrong/
The other court cases against Trump are collapsing, because they are all fake, falsified cases. They have to get rid of Trump because Biden's approval rating is 7% - he has lost - even dimwit Democrats are starting to see see truth about him.
From that Greg Hunter page - "The latest Trump case to crater is the Georgia so-called RICO case. The Georgia Court of Appeals has indefinitely paused the case against Donald Trump. I think prosecutor Fani Willis and her case are finished. The other three cases against Trump are also grinding to a halt. What if the US Supreme Court decides Donald Trump does indeed have immunity to all these lawfare cases? I think Donald Trump could be back on the campaign trail as Biden hits a new low with his real job approval rating now at 7% down from 8%."
Started: NoelShempsky, 9 Jun 2024 18:50
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 10 Jun 2024 13:49
These are interesting developments.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240609-turkish-foreign-minister-to-attend-brics-meeting-in-russia/
Not too sure how it will affect our listing on AIM?
Will Ariana be forced to ditch the dollar at some point?
I don't think affects us but you never know what the future holds.
"Turkey Sends Anti-Assad Syrian Mercenaries To Africa To Guard Mines"
"... hundreds of fighters were deployed in Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria. There they guard Turkish-operated businesses, factories and mines, or provide protection services in countries where the Islamic State group poses a danger to local security"
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-sends-anti-assad-syrian-mercenaries-africa-guard-mines
If it gets archived, see it here - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syrian-rebels-deployed-africa-guard-mines-and-businesses-islamic-state
Well done to those buying in at today's SP and avoiding 16 years of frustration!
Seners RNSs display an anti King Midas touch. Ironic when you consider the business he is in.
For those who like fun facts the share price is the same as it was at the end of October 2008. If you had been born then you would be just about old enough to drink alcohol in a restaurant, get a motorbike licence or have a consensual bonk. Mustn't rush things though eh Kerim?
Well that went down well
Started: Strangerstill, 29 May 2024 09:19
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 31 May 2024 14:35
‘ If it's not clear and/or confusing then walk away.
Every time.’
Just arrived in Artvin, at the top of the gold corridor, goings to Kars tomorrow so will pass by Salinbas from a distance.
Artvin is a very steep hill, wow.
Hi Stranger
That is precisely what I mean. I was a great believer in the AAU team, not just the AAU company, in my near 10 year involvement including attending presentations in London. I even had the pleasure of lunch with VanVan and Paul280i on one occasion,. But, as we have both raised in our posts, I find that I reach the end of an RNS statement and feel the need to review and question what it really actually means, what is glossed over, what is left out. Bit like Terms and Conditions! But as I said previously, I am hopeful you are right with the 50K!!
See ya :-)
If it's not clear and/or confusing then walk away.
Every time.
High John
The problem is the absolute transparency of the communications from Ariana.
The latest presentation (May 2024)states that the Tavsan heap leach is planned to produce 30,000 oz gold for 8 years. The production guidance for 2024 (May 2024) states 'The Kiziltepe operation is currently targeting a minimum ten-year total mine life and current Reserves are sufficient to enable production through to 2026. Further exploration and resource development work remains underway in the expectation that further extensions to mine life are possible.'
Kiziltepe is plated at 20,000 oz gold per annum and is unlikely to be operating at much less than this for the rest of the life of the processing plant (investment in extra milling).
So looking at both bits of information the inference is hoped that Kiziltepe will produce around 20,000 oz gold for a few years yet and Tavsan will produce 30,000 oz gold for the next 8 years.
I wish that Kerim could just come straight out and say what the expected production is likely to be, it always seems that the two processing plants are talked about in relative isolation and that the combined processing output is never detailed.
Started: PAUL1DEANO, 14 May 2024 06:53
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 28 May 2024 18:07
‘ This same professionally highly-qualified fellow member of your "Bulldog Breed" , considered your previous drivel every reason to bite ya! Thus, "Shempsky" in the circumstances you may also go where the sun doesn't shine’
Professionally highly qualified, are you sure?
List your qualifications!
OK, Noel, it's pretty bad when you have to add this You Tube link. You are going into the dreamworld of Rupert Murdoch. If you really want to know the real scene about these sort of muck spreaders start going rather deeper as in:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GB_News
Yes, it's a helluva lot of reading but there are interesting direct references to Ofcom investigations towards the end of the article as well as mentioning a few political personages whose outlook ( IMHO naturally) and behavior
might well be construed rather dubious at times.
But then, according to you, I am "an arrogant bullying American (who) probably waves the flag boasting about they won the war with Grenada." Not quite, Matey. My blue passport has a Lion & Unicorn badge on its cover and describes my person as a British Citizen. This same professionally highly-qualified fellow member of your "Bulldog Breed" , considered your previous drivel every reason to bite ya! Thus, "Shempsky" in the circumstances you may also go where the sun doesn't shine (Deano's preferred location it would seem, LOL). Have a nice Trip!
@noel, for if John was an educated man he would have read some of the books by Carroll Quigley and also got to understand exactly what the WEF is!
Johnpwh - the problem is that today's Conservatives are lefties. The WEF Globalist agent and installed Prime Minister, Sunak, was planted to destroy the Conservative Party.
This man says it in the video below - life-long Conservatives say they will no longer vote Conservative. Sunak succeeded in the job he was planted to do - and he was planted - Liz Truss was ousted in a coup. The British people are the victims of a coup..
"Sunak Can Stick It Where The Sun Doesn't Shine" | Kevin O'Sullivan BLASTS National Service Pledge"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQQ8ifh7FM0
I said he gets offensive and he proves me right with, "2 years ago, Shempsky, when you got right up my nose, maggot! Podex perfectus es."
Yeah 2 years ago I debated with him. I was perfectly civil but he very quickly became rude and offensive. He is an arrogant bullying American. He probably waves the flag boasting about they won the war with Grenada.
Started: PensionPot2, 21 May 2024 09:03
Last post: PensionPot2, 21 May 2024 09:03
Only showing down as they put through a 3.06 UT last night (higher than yesterdays daily range).
Started: dvharrison, 9 May 2024 07:23
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 12 May 2024 20:34
Well just arrived in Ankara, unfortunately just as they were loading my case onto the bus the back window popped and they had to send a replacement bus.
Pleasurable journey got talking to some Romanian yr 11 students who were on their way to Ankara for part of their computer science course as AI was their field. Got talking about lots of subjects including gold mines, energy fossil fuel and nuclear and I told them to read Robert Kiyosaki rich dad poor dad.
Well just in Istanbul, had my morning chai at Kadikoy kutaphane overlooking the bhosphorus. Getting a kamil koc bus to Ankara now.
I’ve got this warm golden buzz.
I used to do the same as you PAUL1DEANO in the 80's. I considered my own JVs in 1. AU goldmines 2. leather goods.....sadly I seemed too busy here in the UK! Oh and one for you Noel et anyone else....https://billholter.com/2024/05/11/3427/
Enjoy!
Sounds good. Enjoy.
‘In brief, what is the USP for investing here? Turkey, so considerable political risk?’
Just about to board a Pegasus Jet to Istanbul, hopefully going Trabzon and will hire a car. If I have time I’m going to look at this Hot Maden corridor where Salinbas is.
Started: NoelShempsky, 11 May 2024 07:03
Last post: NoelShempsky, 11 May 2024 07:03
"GOLD, SILVER MANIA: One Of Michael Oliver’s Most Important Interviews Ever"
"... fasten your seatbelt, this is the acceleration phase. This is the point in the gold bull trend where if you’re not there, you’re going to miss it ..."
https://kingworldnews.com/gold-silver-mania-one-of-michael-olivers-most-important-interviews-ever/
Will he be proved right? I think so.
Started: dvharrison, 8 May 2024 10:17
Last post: dvharrison, 8 May 2024 10:17
Not encouraging trading (ask 2.5675p and bid 2.4020p)
Started: Strangerstill, 4 May 2024 17:49
Last post: MasterG, 6 May 2024 20:15
Van I was going to post a reply to you on ADVFN, as I am also on there. Just too much noise there at the moment. I doubt if they will get something basic as that wrong, and no doubt will be already getting the relevant resolutions ready for the AGM. Simply too many advisors involved in the merger and annual accounts audit to get it wrong.
Please feel free to post it on ADVFN.
Master G - By my reckoning the authority will need to be increased to issue all the shares, required for the merger.
Interesting. Thanks. Could I post that on ADVFN? Somehow someone will need to make sure the Nomad is on top of this or a voting error could be made, which I guess might make the transaction null & void?
What are people’s thoughts on share consolidation?
I’m sure doing that when we enter onto the ASX sends the right signals out.
Stranger, Van
Stranger has already referred to AAU articles of Association, which gives guidance to follow.
If you are further interested in the type of resolution required for the authority to issue additional shares. You need not look much further than the resolutions passed on 29 June 2023, filed at companies house. (Filed 14 July 2023). Board authority to allot new shares is under section 560 of the CA 2006. This is the authority for resolution 7, authorising maximum number of new shares to the value of £500,000 nominal value with a split between new and existing holders of £250,000 nominal each maximum.
Resolution 8 is waiver of pre-emption rights which requires a special resolution under section 561(1) under CA 2006.
Resolution 9 is the authority for the company to purchase its own shares under section 693 CA 2006.
Special resolution has to be approved by 75% of those voting.
The authority usually lasts from one AGM to the next and requires renewal at the next AGM.
By my reckoning the authority will need to be increased to issue all the shares, required for the merger.
The information is in the public domain for you to search and gain insight.
At this moment in time, I am in favour of the merger and will vote accordingly.
We all have a decision to make based on our own particular circumstances, our aversion to risk and timelines.
Van I do follow what you post on AAU on the other BB.
Stranger your rare posts usually make lot of sense.
DYOR
Stranger, Van
Sunday Ariana catch up. Over the years I shudder to think how may hours I have spent, at least I know what my Mastermind specialist subject would be.
Some great posts. I feel at sea here, in November 2019 I was black and white about the Ozaltin deal. Put simply I thought it was the work of the devil, bit like peanuts. Not only the loss of interest in the assets (which, as has been proved by the financing method employed at Tavsan, could now provide a c.300k ounce split 50:50 between just ourselves and Proccea) but also loss of control in the Turkish operations. Basically Ozaltin will take the cash and can tell AAU to bugger off if it gets vocal. All that was achieved was some special divis which many of us reinvested at a SP higher than now and consequently benefitted relatively little.
This is different. IF (capitals intended) all goes well Dokwe appears to be a steal. There appears to be reasons why the owners want to sell, they know Sener from the past, they will retain a strong voice if not control in the future of their asset even if taking more of a back seat. Their 36% (or whatever) may mean they address some of the inadequacies of the current board not only in Zimbabwe but the wider AAU portfolio.
Like Stranger I dont think 'new' AAU will go it alone and hope there is a SEPARATE JV set up which avoids loss of control and will de risk. The problem is risk. This asset, if it turned turtle on AAU, could sink the company. Equally it could increase the net assets per share of AAU dramatically, despite the dilution. Its a big project, appears to be open pit, and far more advanced towards production than the jam next decade (or the one after) that Salinbas has become. As for Cyprus don't start me. You wont like me when I'm angry, my shirt falls off and I turn green.
Have a good day all. Commiserations to C&B and LoB for Burnleys predicament!
Started: Strangerstill, 4 May 2024 16:55
Last post: thomascromwell, 4 May 2024 17:38
Stranger,
That is an excellent summation and I agree this merger is great for Ariana, and this is needed as the S/P has languished for an eternity.
The presentation was interesting and although MdV was not very forthcoming KS did open up quite a bit. KS seems to believe that this will take Ariana to the next level.
How much is Dokwe worth?
Dokwe North has 1.2 million oz gold reserves which will be mined using open cast. The current projection is to mine 100,000 oz for 10 years which should give about $1,000 million of future profit. The mine will be opencast and relatively inexpensive to mine. The stripping ratio is about 6:1 which is 2.5 times less than the overburden at Kiziltepe. This is the profit that Ariana would receive if it developed the mine by itself, however I think that it might develop the mine as a JV and thus the profit would be lower. If there is a JV then Ariana needs to drive a harder bargain than it did with Ozaltin regarding Zenit.
Dokwe Central has had minimal exploration drilling but is currently showing a resource of 80,000 oz. There needs to be significant further exploration of Dokwe central.
At the corporate presentation in November 2023 Kerim stated that there is a Dokwe South (Shaba). Dokwe South is outcropping (with little or no overburden) and the Ariana team seemed very excited about it although no prospecting results are available. From the presentation on Thursday it can be seen that there is an extensive area where there are significant surface anomalies at Shaba.
Dokwe already has four times the reserves than Kiziltepe and Tavsan have and remember Ariana only has claim to only 23.5% of Zenit’s reserves.
It is of note that Ariana is attending the 121 Mining Investment in London. This connects mining companies with potential (institutional) investors. This ties in with the ASX listing. I very much suspect that Ariana will have a further share issue that will be sold to institutional investors and that this cash will be used to further the prospecting at Dokwe (Shaba?) with the intention of increasing the gold reserves substantially.
In the assessments below I am not discounting future profits as both the assessments are at current value.
All the calculations are rough and ready.
Started: VanVan, 3 May 2024 19:31
Last post: VanVan, 4 May 2024 17:13
John - Just google - Does a Listed public Co in the UK need a Special Resolution to issue more shares?? or similar
This is the sort of response you will get.
"You generally need a resolution to issue new shares in a UK company. The Companies Act 2006 requires private companies to pass an ordinary resolution, while public companies need to pass a special resolution."
I don't know Van. It's a significant question because I doubt the resolution can be stopped of the requirement is 51% but it definitely could if its 76%
Question 26:- I can't see how the Co. regard this as only needing an "Ordinary Resolution" which requires 51% of the vote in favour.
I think that is wrong. I believe the Co. need a Special Resolution with 76% voting in favour.
Ordinary Business (Ordinary Resolutions) includes the following business:
Adoption of final accounts.
Declaration of the dividend.
Retirement and appointment of Directors.
Retirement and appointment of Auditors and fixing their remuneration.
You need a resolution to issue new shares in a UK company. The Companies Act 2006 requires private companies to pass an ordinary resolution, while public companies need to pass a special resolution.
With a Special Resolution (SR) you also need 76% in favour (three times higher than the votes cast against it.)
The notice of the general meeting should be duly given to the members, and the notice should contain the intention to purpose the resolution as SR to be mentioned specifically.
The resolution is required to be passed by any methods, such as voting on a show of hands or polling or electronically by the members present in person or proxy or postal ballot.
PLEASE CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG
Started: Strangerstill, 4 May 2024 16:53
Last post: Strangerstill, 4 May 2024 16:53
Assessment of what Rockover shareholders will get from the merger.
The Rockover share holders will get about 37.5% of the future profits that accrue to Ariana. This is the 23.5% of the profits of Zenit in the future. I am going to be quite generous with the assessment of the future profit.
Current projects Kiziltepe and Tavsan are forecast to produce 25,000 oz of gold for the next ten years. Thus the future profit at $2,000 per oz gold (assume $1000 per oz profit) is about $250 million of which Ariana will get about $59 million therefore Rockover shareholders will get about $22 million of future profits that would accrue to Ariana.
There are no other projects that are at the PFS stage in the current portfolio.
The other bits and pieces that Ariana owns may be worth about $6 million at present (although Ariana’s current shareholders think they are worth $0), so add $2 million giving a value of $28 million.
Rockover shareholders get 37.5% of Ariana’s current assets and future profit in exchange for Ariana shareholders getting 62.5% of Rockovers asset of Dokwe.
Assessment of what current Ariana shareholders will get from the merger.
Assuming the mine is built then current Ariana shareholders would get 62.5% of £1,000 million or $625 million of future profits. Even if there is subsequent dilution in the future (e.g a JV to fund the build costs or share issues to cover further prospecting costs) then I think that Ariana shareholders will still get a large amount of future profits from the deal.
My instinct is that this is a good deal for both parties, on paper it appears that Rockover could get a better price selling out to another miner right now. The directors of Rockover are very experienced, and I believe that they see that a future with Ariana will give the best long term returns through Ariana’s holdings in Dokwe, Zenit, Venus, WTR, etc.
I believe that this is a win-win for both parties depending on how Ariana funds the future exploration and the building of the mine and processing plant at Dokwe, and how much more gold there is at Dokwe. This deal would certainly make Ariana into a mid-tier gold miner.
Started: Strangerstill, 4 May 2024 16:51
Last post: Strangerstill, 4 May 2024 16:51
How will Ariana proceed if the merger goes ahead?
I do not believe that Ariana would build and operate the mine itself but would look for a JV or at least a development partner. KS when questioned stated that Ariana had a very good working relationship with Proccea and were looking to Proccea to help to design the mine and processing plant. If this was the case then it would be sensible to have Proccea build and operate the mine and processing plant. KS also stated that there was no need to look for others. In the context of what was being said at the time I assume that he meant no others than Proccea. It was noticeable that Ozaltin was not mentioned very much at all.
It was also stated in the presentation that Ariana would look for bank loans to fund the development. When Ariana was just a start up, with Kiziltepe as the only asset, the JV with Proccea managed to get the funding for the mine as loan funding. I would think that it is highly likely that loan funding would be the vast majority, if not all, of the funding for the mine once the final feasibility study is produced.
Pros
Ariana gets 100% of a large gold reserve (which might be very large depending on future prospecting) that will provide a considerable amount of profit in the future.
If played right, despite the share dilution, existing shareholders should benefit both from increased capital value of shares and, with a bit of a delay, an increased ability to pay dividends.
The two directors that would join the Ariana board are very experienced.
Cons
Current shareholders suffer a relativly large dilution of shares.
The development of Dokwe might result in further share dilution.
Dividends are probably delayed by a couple of years.
Conclusion
I think, with the information that we currently have, that this is a good deal for Ariana and for Ariana’s existing shareholders despite the dilution and risk of further dilution. However I do want to see the revised PFS before the vote on the merger. If I am then satisfied with the merger I will vote for the deal with my four million shares. If any shareholders are absolutely of the opinion that the merger is a bad deal without any further information, then I would suggest that they just sell their shares.
Started: johnpwh, 3 May 2024 10:06
Last post: VanVan, 3 May 2024 14:44
Thanks John. Have done!
Course you can if you want! If we cant laugh what can we do?
Very good. I had a laugh. Could I copy that across to ADVFN? I'm sure some would appreciate that.
Correction. 2.3p
Silly me
Just spent a time reading the Q&A.
Disappointing, or maybe I just got out of bed the wrong side. I would compare the answers to those given by politicians to Laura Kuenssberg on her Sunday morning program. Mind you at least KS has a fallback career as a Tory MP if this sinks the company.
In many cases, particularly the awkward ones, Sener answers a different question to that posed. Or just plain misleading. Examples:
Q The Ozaltin deal was pretty rubbish wasn't it?
A No, the share price went up from 2p to 6.25p! it was great!
Observation: And when everyone stopped looking at you as the messiah it fell back, down to 1.6p only 2 months ago. Over 4 years on its only 2.4p now
Q Why didn't you release production guidance on time this year?
A The dog ate my homework
Observation: Woof
Q Several other companies have shunned Dokwe because of deep desert sand cover. Why is this not a problem for AAU?
A We have found that B&Q have introduced a range of big shovels so its fine!
Observation: I must take my morning tranquiliser
Q Will production really start at Dokwe in 3 years as mentioned in a very very recent RNS?
A Well I said that but its complicated
Observation: We've heard it so before many times Kerim so stop digging as no one believes you anymore.
Q Why no Gantt chart
A Because timings can be hard to predict as they are out of our hands
Observation: if that was true then surely sometimes things would happen more quickly than expected. Like just once maybe?
Q Was involvement in Cyprus a good move
A Yes
Observation: That's a no then. £180k of AAU shareholders money spent to give the Apliki owners fresh data to increase their asking price
Q Will divis be paid to AAU shareholders when Tavsan is in steady state production
A Not sure, maybe
Observations: Ah, not a snowballs chance then
Q Do you care a jot for your ordinary PI shareholders
A Ha, Ha, of course not, don't be silly!
Observation: Ok I made that one up.
Have a good day fellow sufferers
Started: johnpwh, 2 May 2024 09:42
Last post: PAUL1DEANO, 2 May 2024 23:46
‘ Posters keep rattling on about Dokwe's gold deposits being under the Kalahari Desert. This desert would appear to me to be more to the West, in Botswana & Namibia.’
No body has posted that in here!
‘For what it's worth I also decided over 5 years ago to stay well clear of Africa, China and the Russian Federation because many Companies and consequently their investors have been " ripped off" badly by authoritarian corruption.‘
Sounds a bit like Canada and UK, as for USA it’s a farce, hopefully we get free market President!
I sold out in the last spike in gold and have reinvested in this possible merger. Ariana's, S/P has treading water for years as has the dialogue between you long-suffering shareholders. This merger and the increase of ounces in the ground will lift the company from the malaise it has been in for the last few years. It is good to be back!
Posters keep rattling on about Dokwe's gold deposits being under the Kalahari Desert. This desert would appear to me to be more to the West, in Botswana & Namibia.
But I digress. At long last, Van Van, you appear to be getting the vibes I began to worry about a long time ago about Ariana. John's viewpoint about our " merger" also added worries. Sadly, It seems to me to have evolved as just another example of so many unpleasant AIM experiences which over the years have duped their investors and produced a comfortable lifestyle for those " on top (literally )of their " pile " . Initially I really believed that I had found a wonderful route to riches. In hindsight my time and investment was really many wasteful years here. Thus eventually I lost my faith in all the hype and promises so over the last year I reduced my holding and now I have none. So far by investing my former AAU money elsewhere in real Stock Market leaders, in every case I have gained regular quarterly dividends and all my stock has risen wonderfully in value.
For what it's worth I also decided over 5 years ago to stay well clear of Africa, China and the Russian Federation because many Companies and consequently their investors have been " ripped off" badly by authoritarian corruption.
Yep Van, as I said yesterday the circuitous sentence from the RNS about 3 years did mean it incorporated more than a little ambiguity. Could mean they may be able to start to commence development in 3 years! I don't recall Sener even mentioning 3 years this morning, perhaps he thought it best not to. If Dokwe doesn't soak up the dividends then Salinbas will. In fact from the current JVs major shareholders viewpoint Salinbas is more important, at least at the moment, and since Ozaltin control Zenit then AAU may not get dividends from the JV because it will be used to promote the development in Eastern Turkey. That raises the question where the bloody hell does the money come from for Dokwe development, the ex Rockover directors will want some action there because they are no spring chickens themselves. They will of course end up as the major AAU shareholders in June or July this year. My fear is huge debt on the AAU balance sheet, if things go wrong the loan creditors foreclose and equity holders tend to get wiped out.
The Rockover directors, shortly to be AAU directors, may be more astute than this mornings double act, they will hopefully not sit back and allow another big payday for Ozaltin if the Zimbabwe development is to be funded by a new JV there.
You talk about the AAU development not suiting those of our age. Or MDVs. I suspect that the whole development profile is geared to someone of say, now let me think, oh yes, someone of maybe Kerim Seners age??
And this John.
"we anticipate advancing the Dokwe project towards production within the next three years"
Very Motherhood type words. Advancing towards - what does that mean? Not we will be in production in 3 years.
The slide with production from Salinbas is also a joke as was the comment that we are a dividend paying Co.
We need more honesty and much greater clarity. Gritty hard hinting statements.
They need to put themselves in the shoes of shareholders and consider where there are coming from. Consider carefully what they want to hear, primarily of course a focus on how actions will increasing value and reward via dividends.
The need for a Corporate savvy communicator with contacts etc. will only get bigger as they expand and face Institutional interest. It is still very poor currently and we can see that in the recent trading reaction. They have failed so far to excite investors with this new opportunity, perhaps also due to the track record to date.
I found it,
This is a useful discussion and highlights some good points about our strategy in Zim
We looked at Dokwe (Rockover’s project) and passed on it
There is true genius in Nick Graham’s work but the problem is Dokwe is in the wrong jurisdiction. If it were in Botswana it would make sense but in Zim it doesn’t when there is so much more conventional and lower cost opportunity elsewhere
Dokwe has been around for 20 years and had $20m spent on it. The deposit sits underneath deep Kalahari sand cover and has a very large cap-ex requirement ($75m from memory)
The discovery of Dokwe was amazing. Nick and his team found it using a sophisticated fine fraction soil sampling method that was able to identify minuscule variations in gold levels relative to background
The problem is it’s too sophisticated a project for the stage Zimbabwe is at. A possible positive is that Rockover has large exploration permits in virgin ground, but its virgin because of the sand cover. Again, in Botswana this would be attractive but in Zim why go to the trouble of such complex and expensive exploration when there is so much untested potential, near surface that has been scouted by the small-scale miners?
I don’t know what Ariana’s plan is. They did well in Turkey. I imagine they must have finance lined up, otherwise this makes no sense at all. Perhaps, the gold price has changed the economics of Dokwe favourably, I don’t know but we wish them luck. The more international companies in Zimbabwe the better.
Coming back to Kavango and our strategy is to focus on near-surface, open pit, bulk mine opportunities. This is completely different from Dokwe so a comparison between the two doesn’t hold up
The path we are on is more conventional. I expect it might take the market a little while to grasp what we are doing, but once we have more demonstrable success the market will see the scale and realisable potential of our business
The Dokwe project is technically demanding, has taken a very long time and hasn’t yet been able to raise the finance it needs
We have simpler targets, are moving extremely quickly and are raising what we need to build on that momentum. By growing Kavango Mining in parallel with our exploration, we will be well positioned to bring open pit mines into production relatively quickly once they are defined
Sadly the share price is what it is. I don't know what the basis was for the rather precise 687,817,998 number. I guess it gives an exact % in AAU or to equate to a particular sum based on an assumed AAU share price. Dunno haven't thought. I suppose we have to look at what assets each company brings to the table to decide it the (roughly) 1/3, 2/3 split is fair. Somehow you have to adjust each prospect for the stage of development. Dokwe is big, and compare surely to out paltry share of Salinbas after the giveaway JV. Don't know, lets reconvene tomorrow and hope the presentation and Q&A doesn't send the SP any closer to 2p yet again.
I don't know Van. The Dokwe resource is big and effectively AAU gets 2/3 of it. Its a lot of gold, more than I think we will get from anywhere else. The obvious red flags are how does the development get financed while we own 100% and can we trust Zimbabwe? I'm not sure about it as I've always avoided African 'investments' (quotes intentional), as I think we discussed before.
So finance for Dokwe development, as far as I can tell, is by massive equity dilution, debt (lots if tragic stories on AIM about those providing loans wiping out equity holders) or a JV. And after todays RNS we know who that will be with, nailed on - I'm no clairvoyant but I'll bet they will want 51% at least.
I reckon we would all be better selling AAU and buying Ozaltin shares. That way we can benefit from all the things AAU s good at, because directly holding AAU equity certainly isn't doing it.
Three weeks ago AAU had a 3p share price. Now after releasing big news about a deposit some shareholders have been excited about for months and a delayed 2024 production announcement its down to 2.45p. Wasn't news like this supposed to excite shareholders?
PS Is it me or is the Tavsan heap leach plant looking increasingly delayed, vague references onlynow to 2024? Maybe all will be clearer tomorrow. Wont hold my breath for a concise answer.
Agreed John. That is why I believe we need to know they have sought outside advice to protect our interests. Yes he might be a good Geologist, but that doesn't make him a good Corporate analysts capable of securing the most appropriate deal. I think the outcome of the Ozaltin JV after 5 years is proving that point, as you say. I believe they sort no help at that time either. But Zimbabwe. Not my cup of tea. If we wait for the HizHizarliyayla and Salinbas results ( over due?) then perhaps our share price would be higher and we could negotiate from a stronger position. Issuing all these 687,817,998 shares, diluting our current core assets (including assets producing hard cash) doesn't seem right to me. But I need help to understand why this is a good deal as I expect many others do. We can't take it on face value.
It was on a public Telegraph Group apparently . I believe it was mentioned by Ben the CEO who said they passed over on Dowke, but I haven't seen it myself. They might have passed over due to lack of funds of course and now are now just a bit jealous. Who knows? I have no idea how you find these Telegraph Groups.