Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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Yes, john, I concur with your last posting and especially the logic of your final para. Over the years I have spread my AIM investments among various minnow miners/oilies and start-up companies but now I believe the better route to riches might be to buy into the lenders and royalty people who seem to either cream off the top of successful entrepreneurial initiatives or snatch any opportunity (like vultures) if the borrower gets into difficulty. Yes...I'll stay with my 3p forecast by Spring (but hope your 4p is more accurate). At 5p I might consider cashing in 50% of my holding. Below 2.5p I'm outta here.
Well I don't see 4p or more any time soon any more or I wouldn't have sold what I have!
Feel sad because I don't think AAU had a bigger supporter than me on this board. I just don't get this deal, at least not for someone who wants a return in the short rather than long term.
Tick up for you by the way!
ps Wonder what would happen to the SP now if the deal fell through - so Ariana Mk1 + the Cyrus announcement, especially as 'debt free' April approaches? Just a thought....
" the JV that Ariana are looking to earn in to will be based in southern and not Northern Cyprus."
Just goes to show how much real interest Im paying in AAU right now,
I do remember Kerim stating Ariana was more exploration focused, so have they got good value out of Salinbas?
To be fair I think your hefty selling has taken the wind out of Ariana’s sails. In an illiquid stock this amount of constant selling took away any benefit we had initially from the surprise, potentially transformational news. So as someone said it isn’t really surprising the market appears not to like it, just that that isn’t really a true reflection, as it is skewed to one big seller and perhaps that created other small holders to also jump ship. I’m not saying we should necessarily come to a final decision yet, but for now perhaps hold fire thinking carefully about the questions we want answers too and wait for further details once DD is concluded. Kerim has done right by the Co. historically and on that basis alone I feel we should give him the benefit of the doubt during this interim period.
On the face of it there are lots of positive aspects to this proposed MoU.
1. A JV partner potentially prepared to give us in cash our market capitalisation whilst allowing using to retain 23.5% of the business.
2. Short term monetisation. Some who have held for years will appreciate this even if it means reduced revenue for the foreseeable future.
3. Potential for accelerated growth and asset monetisation.
4. Potential to raise our profile and attract Institutional support.
Shareholders will be asked to vote on the deal and will therefore be provided idc with much more detail. Perhaps this week we will get the drill results from Red Rabbit which is hopefully leading towards understanding underground mine potential, a bigger reserve and extended life of mine. By the end of February I suspect the landscape here will be quite different. Best to wait and see what transpires imo. Good luck.
I disagree that (presumably john's) "hefty selling has taken the wind out of Ariana’s sails". Last Autumn I moved a million shares out and subsequently back in and the sp didn't even twitch. The only thing that moves AAU seems to be either improved income ....real not potential ....or fears of share dilution. Let's just hope that 2020 will be Happy & Prosperous. Meanwhile Ya'All enjoy a Merry Christmas!
Hi Van
As you may expect I don't really agree with some of your points. I'll address them individually
1, The argument you put forward is essentially logical if you assume that a MC of c. £23m truly fully valued Ariana Mk1. In fact yes, then it would then be a cracking deal. But since we have both been on record for several months saying that on fundamentals (not least of which was the imminent flood of cash from a 51% interest in W.Turkey operations) AAU was 2,3,4... times undervalued than the argument doesn't really hold water. And the BOD are on record as saying themselves that the MC very significantly undervalued the company, and you do normally put faith in their judgement
2. What monetarisation? A small special dividend which Dr S has said will be a proportion of the $5m received for 17% of Salinbas? Given the unchanged SP punters could monetise similarly by selling a few shares - AAU Mk1 was over 2.40p in July if you remember.
3. Fair point, provided you think the growth percentage will exceed the proportion of assets given away.
4. Again fair point
Yes more results due. At one time this old saddo would have been excited by that prospect. I ought to get out more I know. Now I think ok, but since we will only have a 23.5% interest in future then I'm in no hurry to read it. I'm not being facetious, this company no longer excites me because of the proposed asset & control giveaway.
I do have faith in the BOD leading Ariana Mk1. Not so sure now they are playing with big fish who have sharp teeth. Essentially Dr S is a fantastic geologist. I have met and respect him. Not sure his heart is as CEO if that means handing over the geology to others. So the company swings back with this deal towards a purer exploration agenda, but seems to be at the price of giving away productive and very profitable W.Turkey assets at a knock down price where no help from a new partner is even needed. The AAU/Proccea JV should remain as is imo. Exploration focus is not the company profile I want. The only thing I can think of to challenge my view on this deal is that MDV seems supportive. He, as we know, is a large (maybe the largest private) shareholder. That almost alone makes me question my current judgement, I have met and respect him too.
Finally, I think Joe has made the point well but I reinforce that I am not to blame for the SP being c.2.20p to anything like the extent you imply. You flatter my superhuman powers! I have sold around 1/2% of the company equity. That is not enough to explain the drop, not only are others obviously selling large(r)) amounts but the SP drop also highlights that punters aren't buying. If this deal was that bloody marvellous then others would be mopping up mine and other sellers shares as soon as they hit the market.
Evening VanVan, John, Joe and everyone else here. I have read this weekends‘ posts with great interest and agree with so many of the points made and fully understand the different views.
The bottom line is the proposed deal is very divisive when I’m sure many of us would have wanted something with a clear benefit that we could all agree on.
Just to add something else into the mix, which has crossed my mind, is that the deal could be considered as a hedge against a fall in the gold price. That is to say, if the price were to fall, then future profits would be lower and the deal would be viewed in hindsight as very much in the interests of shareholders.
However, if the gold price rises, then the deal reduces the exposure to the value of the increasing gold price.
In that sense, it comes down to where you believe the gold price is heading and maybe we will have a clearer view on this over the next couple of months before deciding whether to vote to approve the deal.
Interesting times....
Cheers, Ash
"So the company swings back with this deal towards a purer exploration agenda, but seems to be at the price of giving away productive and very profitable W.Turkey assets at a knock down price where no help from a new partner is even needed. "
Pretty much sums it up, the only action is to pay a share dividend because there is just no justification in holding this share if it keeps going back to the beginning of the Lassonde Curve on a new pasture and using the profits from the previous one for that.
Besides which what is this paying for local expertise, some sort of mafia tax?
VanVan just hit the right note with "By the end of February I suspect the landscape here will be quite different. Best to wait and see what transpires imo". This last day of share movement seems to indicate an appreciable fluctuation...around 7% to my rough calculation. Sells and buys have been about equal and there have been no RNS or any further information or presentations from the Company. Nevertheless a 7% profit has been possible without ramping, deramping or any sort of distraction. I think it's going to be a roller coaster ride for some time folks, prodded with rumor and occasional news from our BoD. Better get used to it....perhaps until Easter.
Bit surprised we went down today given the conclusion of the Red Rabbit extensive drill programme. Got to look forward now to an updated resource and extended life of mine early in the new year. That’s the news that should drive value. Hopefully that will then be followed by a new mine plan and new reserve. There was nothing today that should have done anything else than add value. Weird.
Exactly per forecast...Ride 'em, Cowboys!