Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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As far I can see there is nothing in the agreementhat states that AA can only buy 80%.
It only states they are entitled to buy 80%
I'd think they would offer to buy 100%, why would they tool up to only get 80% of the profit.
It makes things complicated and I think they would pay a premium to take the lot from XTR.
Hello CE
We dont have to take the 20% option and can sell nearly all of the licence. The 20% is an option. Because CB has said before he wants to 'put a big bow around it' and sell it I am making the assumption he will want to sell all of the licence.
In the unlikely event he wants to keep 20% of the licence then SP will no doubt reflect the massive additional income we will get from 20% of the mine.
I'm sure CB wouldnt go for the 20% option if this was going to result in a significant reduction in the SP.
Andrew- have a think what are remaining 20% would be worth if AA exercise their right to 80%. As commented Sunday it won’t be as 3% of the in ground value of that 20%. AA won’t spend the money on 80% unless very serious on mine build and with their pockets financing won’t be an issue..
Would have to be on a % of estimated project NPV x our 20% remainder. I’d expect more valuable than what we get for 80%. Plus that would include any added resource from drilling once AA are in control
CE - assuming they went down the AA buyout route there is scope within the deal for XTR to dilute from 20% if they decided to. That said if they had a multi hundred million market cap they might be able to afford to fund the capex through debt or equity!
Hello Andrew,
Does your calculation allow for the fact that there will be an 80% buyout and that we will then be responsible for 20% of the capex?
Per Andrew4444:
Using 0.2% cu or 0.35% cu copper, more realistic = 2 . 4 5 MILLION TONNES COPPER.
$9,000 POG x 3% B/O -£476,000 MC." Tues, 2 Mar 2021
Per stevemocal @16:21
"At 0.45% cu = 3 . 1 8 MILLION TONNES COPPER.
John Cornford 2Mt B/O = 40p." [This is AA*s spec of 2Mt of contained copper @0.44% cu from recall.
Andrew - always nice to have someone coming up with similar figures to your own!
Will be chuffed with 60p'ish but have a feeling hole 5 may make the numbers even better.
Steve
I did a similar calc over the weekend but used different assumptions. I determined the mineralisation as 900,000,000 tonnes but your 700,000,000 maybe more accurate as the resource shape is probably more of an ellipsoid shape as you said, not my cuboid estimate.
I used 0.2% cu as worst case scenario, but I think 0.35% cu is more realistic esp after todays interview.
So that’s 2.45Mt @ $9000 POG x 3% buy-out price =$661,000 = £476,000 MC
I’ve revised the calc to use 825M shares as this is fully diluted and not just the 725M just in issue.
=57p (ex African projects) Very near your 60p estimate
As others have rightly said, lets keep it real. Those assumptions and figures look pretty real to me!
Re rampers comment.
I hardly think this share is being ramped by people on this BB. This is one of the most informed and realistic BB I've come across in some time.
"talk of multiple porphyry's, multiple cores and even buried cathedrals filled with riches."
What a great thought to end the day!
stevemocal
Awesome - thanks. Wish I'd sat next to you at school for maths :)
From the various RNS's, I have the following for the 3 completed holes to date:
H1: 1,235m with mineralisation from 330 = 950m
H2: 899.4m with mineralisation from 130m = 769.4m
H3: 975.5m with mineralisation from 290m - 685.5m
So clearly not a cube and won't be cuboid. So let's assume instead that it is 'ellipsoid' i.e. a bit like a squashed/elongated/deformed sphere. The (basic) formula for calculating the volume of an ellipsoid is: 4/3 x Pi x ABC
A, B and C being the radius of the length, height and width. Punch in the above numbers as our A,B and C and I get 263m cubic meters. Multiply by 2.7 to get the tonnage and that's 707,400 mt of mineralisation.
If we then assume our mineralised rock has a Cu Eq content of 0.45% (which CB seems to think is possible) then that equates to 3.18mt of Cu. Based on the John Cornford estimate of 40p for 2mt, we would therefore looking at over 60p per share. And that was before the recent increases in the price of copper.
And let's also not forget that the thing does seem to be getting bigger, with talk of multiple porphyry's, multiple cores and even buried cathedrals filled with riches. Adding just a bit to the width and depth at the fat end of Jabba will make a significant difference. Lots more holes needed to build the 3D picture and, of course, assay results to start confirming the content but it is looking very good.
GLA
He mentioned a cube and 1000 × 1000 ×1000 but I think that went along with a phrase along the lines of 'for simplicity'. He did later say it wasn't a cube. The strike length is not determined directly from mineralisation in the holes.
What x y z does NOT realise is this:
In the early days of Racecourse, Mr Colin Bird, XTR Chairman mentioned in his interview that the width of Racecourse is "UP TO 250m" [Ella10 listened and said it is up to 250m].
Hole 3 per Mr Bird was to determine the WIDTH of the Racecourse prospect as they already have come to know that the depth is 1,000m from drilling Hole 1 & 2. Strike is 1,000m which was known from the beginning although Straits Resources said that the length is 1,500m [original owner of Racecourse-Bushranger].
BODA, near neighbour per Mr Bird- their strike was 1,000m x 1,000m depth BUT WIDTH was 450m only from the last time I checked. The strike has gone to 1,100m so BODA is stepping out. So, it is dependant on grades for BODA but certainly BIG - anything from 500Mt upwards to 1B tonnes as being mentioned in various articles from recall but kindly recheck.
So, a NO WONDER why Mr Bird mentioned today, Tues, 2 Mar 2021 in his interview with Sharetalk that their geologists think it is better than BODA [para phrased] at $500m mkt cap [or $400m].
Don't forget there were a lot of AA drills too. From memory, AA proved up 1,000m strike length. We found over 900m down-plunge and the width is currently proving to be there or there abouts - so with strike open to length and depth, Colin will not be far off with his simple cube model...
I can’t really see how Colin can predict a 1000m cube based on three and a bit holes, none of them with 1000m of mineralisation. But hey, who am I to spoil the vibe? Go Colin!
We are looking at 6 x $350 million potential fare value! That would be nice
Investor12, you are probably calculating the gross value of the deposit rather than anything close to NPV, taking account of capex etc. Then take a haircut of that figure to approximate what AA might have to offer.
John Cronford, Mining Analyst, Masterinvestors article on XTR cited 40p for the AA buyout if at 2mt copper as specified. Think he mentioned US$350m from recall - I dont have the figures with me on hand. This is ONLY FOR 2M of contained copper.
Wait till JOHN CORNFORD reports NEXT -- should be interesting.
All from Mr Colin Bird, Executive Chairman, Xtract Resources on the RNS last night of 1 Mar 2021.
All from the HORSE*S MOUTH today on the said RNS above about Hole 3 & 4, Racecourse. XTR*s geologists include a PhD, young geologist, Mr Jeremy Read, Director of XTR, former Head of BHP Australia-Africa and the copper consultant, Doug Menzies [specialist in the Lachlan Fold, NSW, Australia geology etc], the latter 2 who are doing the modelling for Racecourse drilling holes etc.
News, Tues, 2 Mar 2020.
Hewhodares1 - The buyback is to be based on a "fair market value as determined by an Independent Expert in accordance with the JORC and Valmin Code". So the value depends on how big it is and how much copper and gold is in there... which is going to a take a lot more drilling and assays to determine.
For now, you'll have to content yourself with an estimated buyback of 'a lot'. ;)
There’s always a sad nob on every risers share chat
certainly sounds like more than three bags full
colin knows how many beans make five
dyor cat
It will depend on fair market value, as I understand it though that could be between 200-400m+ £
Name calling is so immature but you always get them when a stock is going up