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"I don't understand why you would take a CEO-chairman on his word wrt targetx."
Yep completely agree. Hence my points below
I don't understand why you would take a CEO-chairman on his word wrt targetx. It's like believing a used cars salesman or even a new car dealership where they say a car can do70 mpg but in reality it's nearer 45.
Nobody is saying he's lying, but a future projection is NOT a fact, he a forward statemen t.
That being said I have no doubt the license contains more than 2MT.
I've said many times how ambitious 2MT is and even 1MT is worth far more than our current mcap.
I don't understand being cross with a CEO because he's only making your 100-400% rather than 500-1000%.
Btw copper is continuing to rocket up (at least in commodity terms) back above 8000t.
We won't get 10p, it will have to be 15p or above to give the guys working on it thier Brucie bonus.
No point having options at 10p otherwise. L
Therefore Colin and the team have to continue drilling and adding value till they are happy.
I will be staying.away from this board as much as I possibly can as this will be going on for at least another 6 months, possibly 12.
So much for jorc in January........
"if we come up short, his credibility will be in pieces"
Possibly.
If we are just short of the 2mt, say 1.8mt then I doubt anyone will be wanting to be too critical of CB. Obviously the risk of criticism will increase as the tonnage gets lower.
That said, even at, say, 0.9mt declared, the more forgiving shareholders may take to the view that all CB had done is do what we all know he does - be overly optimist with his predictions and comments. So why be surprised or, moreover, annoyed when someone who is always optimistic is....optimistic!
This would not be my view (if it was just 0.9mt) . If we explained all CBs failures away by using that excuse then CB will never be accountable when results, not matter how bad, did not match forward guidance or predictions.
It is a matter of subjective opinion. Some may take the view that at say, at 1.4mt, CB has been deliberately deceptive and others, at the same tonnage, conclude he's been slightly optimistic.
My own view? As ever the results will very likely be much lower then CBs forward guidance , but good enough to ensure a buy-out at a sp significantly higher that what it is now and good enough to keep most shareholders from being critical of CB.
After a buy-out of say 10p , the different conclusions of a subjective view, that CB had been either: a bit optimistic or very optimistic or deliberately deceptive or a liar - will probably be irrelevant and forgotten about.
Well, that's what CB will be hoping :)
I see your point. However is it not less than a month of expected time scales. Therefore we might be a little premature on creating the lynch mob. So long as he hasn't completely lied to us, he might be forgiven for a reasonable over run. Which i would think timing is a very difficult thing to get right all factirs considered. I for one like to stay till the end and see things through. To my detriment on occasion i might add
The f,ct is that CB has alluded on more than one occasion, albeit not by RNS, that 2mt is a walk in the park. We can all say do your own research but chats with Sunday Roast and Zac are part of that research and if we come up short, his credibility will be in pieces.
The share maybe fluctuating for various reasons. There has been no negative changes. In fact we have made additions in all avenues and yet our loyalty and trust is being tested. Stick to the common cause and hold ranks. Why should we consider running when we invested at a point of much higher risk initially. XTR is at a point of any news will see this share move significantly upwards.
Hi howezap
Thanks for your reply, yes I understand what you are saying, I for one am committed to the future for Xtract but thought I had missed something more worrying with the headline "after Bushranger " I've topped up again to bring my Average down, upwards and onwards and fingers crossed.
I would ‘not’ have thought they would realistically want to do that Steve, if even they could.
From report
>> The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market.
The cut off will be determined by the financial model and will be key to resource viability.
I do think your previous idea that once the models are released with planning on a 3rd phase ongoing it will prompt AA to show their hand. All CB’s comments and more importantly the statements released in RNS all point to a scenario that still involves determining AA’s intent.
2MT AA buyback agree price and sold, bingo F100 happy bunny
F100
One option could be to announce a JORC with a higher cut-off that doesn't break 2mt, which would comply with market regulations and avoid triggering the buy-back. That gives the market chance to look at the asset, while we are still protected by the buyback, and allows time to do more drilling while we wait for market conditions to improve.
We could use the current copper price to justify a higher cut-off and then lower the cut-off when the copper price increases, allowing us to trigger the buy-back at our convenience. Although probably AA have thought of that ahead of time and specified a cut-off in the buy-back agreement.
>> one could just as easily make the argument that if you had been overly optimistic and unrealistic with expectations provided to investors
Well, if you think that is the case, you should probably sell ahead of the bad news.
He is going to have to announce it to the market before trying to find more resources though.
Steve, one could just as easily make the argument that if you had been overly optimistic and unrealistic with expectations provided to investors, would you come out and announce this admission in a bad market, or would you hide behind the bad market excuse to keep a lid on it and buy time while you try to find more resource to substantiate previously made claims?
Timeline of sept /oct for both JORC and predictions of a copper recovery by some analysts including our Colin, tally nicely.
It seemed an obscure comment at the time by him, but maybe it gives some indication of their intent the fact that he did mention it.
Cool, all to play for and lets hope we knock it out of the park
F100
You are correct about the share price F100, but an RNS out the blue stating they have 2mt will not be the case, the updated resource model/s when completed will give the tonnage and grades etc and duly reported by RNS. And only then will the market have a more firm foundation to put a value on Bushranger and AA have something to base their decision of intent on.
As xtract’s intent ‘is’ to produce the JORC resources before any decision on a 3rd phase it is with clear intent they would be willing and open to and if, an offer from AA is made.
If the resource is there a RNS would be required, and if they "know" they have 2mt, the SP would not be 3.5p, it would be out there in the ether
No one knows what will happen with the Copper price in 6 months time the price could half (unlikely) given current issues and lecky bills going crazy etc etc.
I want Fair value for my investment and if AA offer that (if we have the resource) then happy days, a quick game is a good game
F100
Agreed. Unless AA offer us a good deal then I would rather just sit it out. Or in our case spend time proving up the model and drill a few holes. As long as the messaging is clear why we have changed strategy most people will accept it.
>> Not sure he would be holding off on a deal at all if the resource is there, and the SP would not be at 3.5p, people in the know and all that.
If you have an asset you can sell for X now, but probably sell for double that in six months, and you have to sell once you announce you have that asset, what would you do? Say you have it now, or wait a while?
Don't forget that NPV and copper price do not have a linear correlation. Copper price going up 25% could easily double the NPV and therefore the sale price. Personally, I would be extremely annoyed if XTR had 2mt and then announced it now rather than waiting.
I hope the investors more erudite on the subject of mining can put pertinent questions at the AGM in order to get answers that indicates there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Look forward to the comments. Went into XTR for the long term but it would be nice to at least recover my investment at average cost of 15 p .
as I now don't have the finances to continuously average down .
Not sure he would be holding off on a deal at all if the resource is there, and the SP would not be at 3.5p, people in the know and all that.
Agree steve, he's being a useful hook atm to show why xtr is different.
Xtr is different, at least for me. I am not invested in any other Colin stock for various reasons.
Kwa, if you're not heard of eureka - which was funded by empress and is a large scale gold complex operated independently which has just gone into production and which has to pay us for every ounce produced I am not sure you're worth listening to.