Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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" I do think he has over promised (I remember getting cross at one of his interviews last year). I have never brought into the Tier 1 talk and generally have lower valuations than him."
Careful Iceberg. With negative comments like that you may get labelled a basher :)
Yes agreed with all your post. Very balanced and reasonable points.
Lets hope no one just focuses only on your negative points and tries to completely mischaracterise what you are saying :)
Lucky, we need to be a bit more relevant with our facts.
The precious metals sector on the LSE has fallen from a high in Feb of 18,000 to a low in July of 8940. For good or ill, XTR is part of this sector. So in comparison to that we are pretty average. Certainly if i look at the likes of the companies, which have come down by 30% or so from their peaks (and just started to recovery) it seems a reasonable fall.
XTR has been bashed a little in the last few weeks, because of sentiment, but its hard to direct much of that to Colin. TBH volume is so low that a few people selling and or buying can raise the SP or lower it, very easily.
Of course we will all have our opinions as to why, but it could be a couple of large holders needing to sell to fund a pension withdraw and have nothing to do with the company.
I am not universally happy with everything I don't think that anybody would be with any company. I do think he has over promised (I remember getting cross at one of his interviews last year). I have never brought into the Tier 1 talk and generally have lower valuations than him.
However despite all this, the company is clearly valued far far too cheaply atm.
Whether or market is holding off for actual gold production and income figures before truely valuing Manica or whether it wants to see a JORC before valuing BR, I don't know.
I've said it many times, but there is far far too much emphesis on the AA contract IMO. If we get 1m tonnes of copper we are already talking about one of the biggest undeveloped Copper-Gold projects in Australia. It won't go unnoticed imo.
But anyway, the gist of my post is that we are in the same boat as the rest of the sector. Without the need to raise funds and having no debt, it's difficult to see many of the companies in our boat being in such a good position as we are. IMO
https://www.mining.com/hundreds-of-new-mines-required-to-meet-2030-battery-metals-demand-iea-report/
Just to prove I'm not just bashing the stock.
In the last 6 months the ftse 100 dropped 1%
The Aim market dropped 15%
Xtract dropped a massive 51%
And we should blame Putin.....not Colin?
In the last month the ftse 100 has risen 7%
The aim market has risen 6%
Xtract is down 12%
And gold and copper have both risen too.
But it must be the war, inflation and commodity prices causing xtracts drop!!
Hi lucky
>How will that create value, if the share price doesn’t go up?
I would certainly hope it would at least change perception of what is still a very speculative investment for potential new investors. It will be what makes Xtract stand out in the crowd when markets turn. It will also give firm starting point in their due diligence toward a basic valuation of the company and more importantly the confidence to take a position or increase a holding knowing BR can see any final funding without dilution and be in a position to finance further long term growth as stated in audited report.
Sounds like a reasonable business plan for growth. As for the next big thing, that could be an IOCG in Zambia.
But seriously, no it’s not great we may be sitting on hands for a while, just bad luck.
Let me preface this by saying that I have great respect for both and have benefitted hugely from Icebergs knowledge and explanations
In his blog dated 30 October 2021 Iceberg compared the size of the ore body with that at Northparkes. He then went on to state that from his calculations that gave an estimate of the container copper of between 2.1 and 2.6 mt.
That was around the same time as Colin’s shareholder evening that I was not present at but has been referenced by some who were there.
Since then there have been a lot more assay results released.
Iceberg current view 1.5 -1.6 mt at Racecourse. Ie less than the 2MT buyback
And the current price of copper has (temporarily I believe) dropped to almost 50% below the preferred conceptual open pit study iteration
I doubt that a Decision to mine is realistic based on NPVs using current price of copper
So I expect the company to sit on its hands (and plan but perhaps delay implementing Phase 3 ) if it believes that the drop in copper price is temporary.
nah its not bad comms.... that Buffet is just too old and distracted with too many companys :-)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/06/legendary-investor-warren-buffetts-company-posts-44bn-loss/
"Warren Buffett’s company has fallen to a $44bn (£36bn) loss after sharp falls in stock markets took their toll on the legendary investor’s portfolio. Berkshire Hathaway recorded the $43.8bn loss in the three months to June, down from a profit of $28.1bn last year. "
I assume its a problem with their comms.... :)
Howzap, fairbride has some great revenue. With gold prices going even higher and it set to be in full production, that will mean possibly a million a month. I ask you, how will that create value? If the share price doesn't go up, how will we shareholders benefit? Colin and the team will just spend it on the next big thing. We won't get a dividend.
*steaming
"If they offered me 10p and I'll tell them where to stick it" - I think that was in response to a comment on this board? IB's ValMin valuation I think (that really got a few streaming).
We've, pretty much, got the same average but I'm sub 12e6 shares now.
Gixxer
You may be right that some would be p off even at 10p. I guess it depends on your average and number of shares you hold.
My average is 2.3p and as you know I hold in the teens of millions of shares . so I would not be unhappy at 10p but it wouldnt be what CB implied - nothing like after the "If they offered me 10p and I'll tell them where to stick it" comment
Spaceman was a legend - I wonder if he even sold his house in Wales? Ho hum....
>>Will it be embarrassing though IF we declare 1.4mt to 1.6Mt but not 2mt ? Yes CB would have been deliberately deceptive (being kind there) but that resource should see a buyout of 10p min.
It would be way below what he told the likes of CE, et al, at the AGM last year (something like 25p, 40p if you have a beer?(whatever that means)) so I'm sure a few will be pi@@ed A4444.
Many of us in agreement now that we are sitting around 1.4-1.6Mt (even our resident expert IB) ofc we all may be well out but i'm sure Bird knows exactly what we have. The question is why the delay in just publishing, as he mentioned he would ~1y ago. In the hope he gets the rest form Ascot? - He could then argue it was a misunderstanding and that he meant the whole region even though he's on camera stating it would come from RC alone.
Perhaps he's not BS'ing us; perhaps he got it right this time us and there is 2Mt+ @RC and he is holding on the 'amazing' finds at Ascot. Would love that ofc but I also feel his excitement in interviews would be brimming like in the past. It's just not though is it.....
LW
Tbf Spaceman makes Steve 4077 seem like a basher. Spaceman was something else!
If he was here now and someone said they thought the buy-out would be 30p by q1 - he would be saying they are deramping as it will obviously be 50p min :)
And then he'd try and get the poster banned ....!
He was a comedy character .
Another way of looking at it then, the share price is only so low because no-one believes fairbride will deliver and not helped with the drop in gold price.
After all, I thought the market hadn’t factored in any value from Bushranger toward market capitalisation of the company. If this is being driven down by investors selling, then they would surely know that fairbride is soon to be up to full throughput and then with decent EBITA toward valuing the company a lot higher than where value sits at present. They must have little faith in the production side of xtract too.
Company valuation is mad, but the fall in value is in-line with similarly positioned companies on AIM as far as I can see.
Current MC of 28m for all African assets alone will soon surely see a rerate once fairbride is contributing, but as yet we still await first meaningfull income.
I would be shocked if the company held that important news back. Hopefully gold will continue its recovery and we get MC back to recent higher levels if not a tad more as gold continues to climb as expected.
The company is in a very strong position still, and a reminder of a previous comment made that xtract are a gold producer right now! And a copper explorer on the cusp of a potentially huge saleable asset in the near to distant future.
Let’s try keep positive until we know what we have.
I don't post often because I don't have the knowledge of the mining industry that some here have.
With an average price of 2.2p I can afford to be relaxed with the present SP but am still very comfortable with a cash generating, debt free business with a potential for serious returns in Oz and Zambia. I believe the risk reward balance is seriously in my favour.
A thumbs up from me at 10p. That would be like getting a second chance at that Jan2021 spike.
I don't believe Gixxer will be alone in that. There will have been a fair few who have bought in north of 6p and now feel let down ? Its understandable that they will try to limit the damage on any recovery. i was too slow to cash in on the spike of 18 months ago but hopefully will be more prepared if we get another. I didn't really care if Bushranger was the bees knees or not but I did expect Colin to get the SP lifted on hope (which he did I suppose) but that 9p spike caught me by surprise and the gushing interviews kept the SP flirting with 7p after that. I thought even if it was more of the same old it didn't matter if I could cash in on a steadily rising SP. I'm lucky I suppose in that I'm one of the Chepicos. I remember that name given to us moaners by the likes of spacemen and one of his disciples (I cant remember the name). Spacemen sounded just like Steve does now lol. Anyone remember how he would try and get posters banned if they didn't religiously heap praises on Colin and XTR's progress ? He went over to the dark side if I remember correctly. Anyway as I said I feel fortunate that I stuck with it and am doing ok here but I wont stop criticising when I feel the need.
"It going to be pretty embarrassing for him if/when he finally has to admit he's led the market astray with regards to 2Mt @RC"
Will it be embarrassing though IF we declare 1.4mt to 1.6Mt but not 2mt ? Yes CB would have been deliberately deceptive (being kind there) but that resource should see a buyout of 10p min.
Who will be that bothered about previous comment if sp it 10P?
I would think that the only people who would be bothered would be those that sold out well below 10p
Makes sense, all the best
I have and will continue to sell into rises. Simple as that.
Gixxer
I’m all for having a rant and to be honest I think this is a better place for it than most others, but you have clearly lost faith in CB so I don’t get how you can keep any money invested with him other than FOMO?
Cheers
James
i at least thought the sp will move after we can show full capacity and 3months results, was not expecting anything sooner really.