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Commodity prices are purely driven by current demand. Historically the big producers live in the now, and is not likely to change any time soon.
Previous study analysis was that a positive NPV return could be achieved at a 0.15% Cu cut-off with a production rate of 20Mt per annum at a copper price of US$5 per lb. The Conceptual Study concluded that the Racecourse deposit may be economically recovered at a copper sales price above US$4 per lb.
This, all based on the inherited 71mt resource and stating that, opportunities exist to improve the economic viability by increasing the size of the Mineral resource in particular.
So until these figures at least show a positive NPV at or so many points below copper futures price, they will not get maximum value for shareholders.
There is no reason to suggest the updated mining study will not show a significantly improved range of forecasts based on the same scenarios as before.
That’s not to say you shouldn’t strap in…..or on (still don’t know which it is) this could fly anytime as fomo kicks in.
Price moving up, leaky leaky or just plenty of optimism. Time will tell.
That's broadly what I expect tbh as it's in my 15p to 20p band
Just not sure if its this Dec or next !
18p by 23rd Dec :)
F100
"And it could happen at any time."
Spot on Jez, any time is right
It could happen in a years time, as CB waits for the POC to keep increasing :)
And for that reason I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend ...!
There, said it!
I bed & ISA'd my wife's holding a few weeks back. I ISA'd at 3.4 but held off the Bed bit as I thought I would sell that lot as we rose a few tenths. Cash positive move. So she has enjoyed double her original holding underwater for an uncomfortably long time.
If we get a nice move up soon we can enjoy the luxury of the original shares appreciating with a stop loss above her originally planned exit price.
As I said to her ... you wouldn't want to be out of this ...
And it could happen at any time.
This feels a bit like the waiting around we were doing back in November 2020. A couple of months later and 8p+ appeared as if out of nowhere. Looking forward now to all the "whoosh/choo choo/wouldn't want to be out of this/etc" posts !
Copper inventories are down to a matter of days. I sippose that can only go down to zero, unless you start to factor in a waiting period for delivery. Demand is growing on a macro level. Whatever the short term lag from China's slowdown in manufacturing and housebuilding will be sw2allowed up in the medium term from worldwide green demand.
Copper producers are running low on copper producing mines. And new ones have a 10 year lead in to production.
I predict we will see an increasing disconnect between 'today's' PoC and what a producer will pay for a new asset. The producers can't afford to wait 2 years for the owner of an asset to sell as the price of copper is not higher enough yet, or because the producer cannot justify the buy price for the same reason. Producers need to get assets on board now to fill their production vacuum in ten years time.
The old way or pricing an asset will change, and soon if not now, and producers will be looking at the future value.
Has there been much competition for assets in the past? My feeling is producers will have to compete for their future survival.
We seem to have a regular debate about 'copper will be higher in the future so that means a better price now'.
Same answer every time. Firstly, copper futures are almost always similar to current price. Secondly, can anyone highlight an M&A deal that was based on a higher copper price than existed at the time of that deal?
To get a better deal we need a higher current copper price. If you don't have patience to wait for the right conditions to sell, you will end up worse off. Obviously I don't want to wait years for that, but I am very happy to wait a few months.
CB could be waiting for market conditions to improve but considering the expected Cu price over the next few years that would mean an unacceptable wait for most shareholders. Having said that the price of Cu has perked up recently which is always helpful during negotiations. It is so much better to be in discussions when the price is increasing on almost a daily basis compared to a moribund price which takes the urgency off the situation.
I agree preliminary talks with AA is a possibility, but it could also be Colin holding off on any announcements until market conditions improve (which, touch wood, they seem to be doing at the moment).
Also agree that Africa news would be welcome, although it was 3 months before we got the Q2 update and its only 6 weeks since the end of Q3. XTR could be potentially lining up a series of good news RNS as a precursor to negotiations, although our past comms strategy has been a little inconsistent.
Steve: in view of your messag, the recent RNS history (or lack of) is therefore entirely consistent with XTR negotiating with AA and would explain the lack of BR news.
We could still do with some confidence building African news though!
Indeed - confirmation of a decent pour of gold before other news would be handy.
>> Would XTR have to announce an RNS had they entered talks/shown data to AA?
Not according to AIM regulations:
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Companies%20%2801012021%29_1.pdf
Section 11:
"An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance."
However, there is the following exception to the above:
" Unless disclosure is required under Article 17 of MAR, an AIM company may delay notifying information under this rule if it is an impending development or a matter in the course of negotiation provided such information is kept confidential. The AIM company must ensure it has in place, in accordance with rule 31, effective procedures and controls designed to ensure the confidentiality of such information to minimise the risk of a leak.
In such circumstances, where an AIM company is able to delay notifying information about impending developments or matters in the course of negotiation it may give such information in confidence to the following category of recipient:
(i) the AIM company’s advisers and advisers of any other persons involved or who may be involved in the development or matter in question;
(ii) persons with whom the AIM company is negotiating, or intends to negotiate, any commercial, financial or investment transaction (including prospective underwriters or places of its securities);
(iii) representatives of its employees or trades unions acting on their behalf;
(iv) any government department, the Bank of England, the Competition Commission or any other statutory or regulatory body or authority; and
(v) the AIM company’s lenders."
I'm confident that news is 'imminent' !
More seriously, I'd be annoyed if we don't some sort of progress update on Africa New Plant Gold production output in December sometime..
And there's likely to be a Bushranger update RNS - of what exact description a bit uncertain still perhaps, although it has already been spelt out by fine posters here what it should be - in Dec too, I'd expect...
Thanks howezap.
I think the fact that we have not heard about the results of phase two suggests to me that this information, although complete, is being shared with AA as we wait - hence the delay in it being reported to the public. This would also gel with the news about the options a week or two ago, Get those sorted before releasing the info to AA to avoid insider trading issues.
If AA are not interested then we should hear soon, if they are 'horse trading' then there will be a further delay. The delay in itself is good news because it means that AA are interested and need to make an offer that will prevent XTR walking away and opening it up to other miners. It does put XTR in a good place - head we win, tails AA lose.
According to the half yearly report RNS, next news is due within next 5 weeks...
"The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."
AND
"Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."
Racecourse wording has caveats such as "planned" so may not be by end of the year, but Ascot wording is unequivocal stating "which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."
If so, we should be getting news between now and Friday 23 Dec, as I can't think we will get news in the few days market is open in late Dec.
The big buys that went in today may imply news sooner than 5 weeks?????
Hoping there will be news soon maybe?..
Some big buys appear to be happening but as of yet there's no reaction on the sp.....
I wish I knew when the next news was going to drop....
It's hard to maintain a level of excitement..... if there was an interview where Colin could suggest "next few weeks" or "early December" as the expected arrival it would perk me up no end.
Come on Colin..... drop a few hints.....
Last xtract interview from 24/09
https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwNjQ0MzcucnNz&episode=dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMi0wOS0yNDovcG9zdHMvODE2Mjk5Mw%3D%3D
Sunday roast chewing the fat, putting the world to rights from 02/10
https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwNjQ0MzcucnNz&episode=dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMi0xMC0wMTovcG9zdHMvODE2NzM0NA%3D%3D
It feels like it's been very quiet on the news front, but maybe it's because we've become accustomed to lots of news (almost daily at times). Patience is needed I am sure, as long I don't see the word imminently again I'll be fine
Can anyone point me to the last interview with Colin?
Thanks in advance.
Tam