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Well now you have divulged your credentials Steve it will be hard for Colin to argue the case that it is economically viable but only at greatly increased commodity prices .
I would certainly want you on board any company I was invested in looking at your capabilities.
Let's simplify it Steve. No-one here has the credentials so let's talk it out.
Everything is in us dollars.
1.1mt copper at $8000 = 8.8billion
Capex is approximately 1 billion us.
Opex is 311millon? X 25 years = 7.8 rounded up.
$8000 Is break even.
Plus ascot and then some additional potential from the other licenses. Also possibly a smaller mine and tonnage. Maybe $10k copper or $11k
Some more drilling etc.
Maybe at this mcap there is still potential?
>> You obviously won't have ALL the info available to the independent group who do the economic study.
Completely agree. However, what we do have is a direct comparison on the original vs new JORC at 0.15% cut-off taken directly from XTR's own RNS. The drilling has added 235k tons of copper at 0.135% grade. I have seen no one arguing with those numbers.
We also have the original economic study from July 2021, which is based on that original JORC, which was only economic with a $5 copper price. Also, however you run the numbers for that 2021 conceptual study, they are building a mine in one year and then achieving full production by day 1 of the second year because there is no other way to mine 162mt tons at 20mt per year in 9 years. How realistic is that do you think?
So we now have a situation with double the tonnage to mine and process and only 50% more copper at an overall lower grade (0.21% vs 0.29%). Common sense alone will tell you that is a problem, without the need for detailed analysis.
>> If it really is that simple and this could be done on a spreadsheet in a few days, then I doubt it would take months to compile these reports.
If you want a detailed mine plan to provide to Anglo, it will definitely require a lot of effort and cannot be done in a few days. That is not what I am highlighting though. I am taking basic information provided by XTR and running some simple maths. I have provided all my calculations so anyone can run through it and highlight any mistakes.
I don't want to keep replying, because that just looks like de-ramping, rather than debate. I will just add for those attacking the messenger rather than the numbers that my day job is Director of Analytics for a large FTSE 100 company. I ran these numbers several times because of the impact of the conclusions.
Its very hard to face the idea that you might have made a bad investment. I have gone though a couple of sleepless nights myself over the weekend. In the end though I am an analyst and I have to act based on the numbers, not my emotions. I am now providing those numbers for everyone else. You can check them, ignore them, doubt them, attack them, etc. but the decisions are yours.
I am happy to answer posts on any clarifications on the numbers, but obviously I will no longer be a regular poster on here. Good luck to everyone with your future investments.
I’ve done pretty much the same thing as Steve, and agree more or less with his numbers. What I see is that the outside the “high grade” material it’s sub economic (Opex costs are higher than revenue)
However I don’t believe Steve numbers incorporated upside from Ascot, a few years of high grade material which is easy to get to changes the story. If Opex can be reduced on a $/t things again look much better. So a few ifs and fingers crossed but I don’t think the deposit is without hope
I posted on here last week that I’d sold some previously!
As I’ve said to others privately, I am snowed under which is why I’ve barely posted on lse over the last 3 months or so. Not much research and no blogs.
I didn’t even know it had fallen today tbh.
Anyway just a quick post and I will go quiet again.
Btw if anybody wants to check posts, just search a members name.
bloody newbies....
There are so many variables that someone unpressional with a pen and paper can not work this stuff out.....especially not in a couple of days.
They also do not have all the data.
What was Steve's previous predictions on the possible contained copper for racecourse?
Go back, I bet they are wrong. Doesn't mean he's wrong this time though haha
And good riddance, thanks Steve 4407
Steve4077
You obviously won't have ALL the info available to the independent group who do the economic study.
If it really is that simple and this could be done on a spreadsheet in a few days, then I doubt it would take months to compile these reports.
Its honest of you to confirm that you sold out just before released that damaging post.....
Lucky... stay strong
I sold a load this morning when I read Steve's posts. I then bought them all back.... made just under £1800 thanks Steve. Hope you are wrong obviously.... taking a gamble that ascot and some more drilling can get us over the 2mt and get passed AA clause. Going to be a few more months or years wait unfortunately. As you all know I have been extremely unhappy but I'm not willing to sell now.
Hi Steve ,
Thanks for providing a very detailed analysis. Can you educate me on how you came to the OPEX value and (if you know) how that might be better or worse than expected. I assume that the unknowns here are strip ratio and waste ore.
So it looks like one by one the post Bushranger investors have found Colin's ways a little too baffling. Looks like it will just be the Chepicos at the xmas party then. (I didn't say which xmas before A4444 says anything).
Well it’s all there in black and white the numbers dont lie
He has worked it all out of information xtr has released it can only be wrong if the information xtr released is not correct.
This is definitely going back to the 1,s with what has been highlighted here and Colin needs to exsplain all what Steve has pointed out who in their right mind would finance a mine there now if it will cost more to strip than what you would get out at present prices , this is madness we were told it’s viable .
It's very dangerous to act/trade on bulletin board analysis from anonymous posters in my considered opinion, numbers can be interpreted in different ways.
I feel the drop is seriously overdone - have bought back in here, made a very good profit historically out of XTR - technically the shares are materially oversold, the RSI is at its lowest point for 2 years !
Buy the dips
I value xtr's Africa Gold at 2.5p minimum and up to 5p maximum.
I'm all for using revenue from that for an additional targeted drilling programme at Ascot, as there could easily be plenty more to discover there. (Indeed I'd be gutted if they didn't look to better understand Ascot as it could be transformational) And what we have discovered so far there has yet to be even counted in the running total size of the resource.
I'm fine being patient here, especillay as I'm bullish to very bullish on POC for the medium and long term.
Generally, from years of playing the game, I find the answer is usually somewhere in the middle of how good it might appear and how bad it appear at various peak and trough points thru the journey....
XTR following the AIM exploration playbook:
Enthusiasm, Promises of huge resource, multibag opportunity, investors develop emotional attachment to the company, Reality not as expected. Loss for punters.
Well I am gobsmacked that after all this we have an uneconomic lease at present prices apart from Manica that’s all xtr has going for it so decided to sell up this morning.
>> I wonder why someone who is invested would want to post such a damaging conclusion...hmmm. >> I think I'll wait until the economic model is released in early 2023 rather than trusting one person's view who wont have all the info.
Plainly, I sold before publishing the data. I stated so on Telegram, but this forum is not ideal for interactive discussion. If you don't believe the analysis, which is based on XTR numbers, not mine, you can check a couple of simple facts in two RNS.
26th July 2021 - Conceptual study
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-conceptual-open-pit-mining-study-c05hq78ws9qagfq.html
This has data for original JORC at 0.15% cut-off. 470,000 tons at 0.29%
23rd November 2023 - Updated Mineral Resource
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/racecourse-prospect-updated-mineral-resource-k5dfrxajgs0ls13.html
This has data for the new JORC at 0.15% cutoff. 705,000 tons at 0.21%
There isn't any interpretation or extrapolation required. Simple maths tells you that the drilling has added 235,000 tons at 0.135% grade with a 0.15% cut-off. Doubling the ore required for processing with a 50% increase in copper.
I realise this is damaging and some people may blame me for highlighting it, and I considering not releasing it. However, I thought investors needed to understand what has happened. Happy for anyone to go through the numbers and point out any errors.
Joe
I think I'll wait for the independent economic report which has all the info.
Even if Steve thinks he's being honest, that doesn't mean his calcs, based on very limited info, is correct.
SP was holding up fine until Steve's posts so obviously thats the reason for the drop.
Global warming must have melted him. But seriously, when people disappear from a BB it’s usually, but not exclusively, because they are disinvested.
As I said last week the market is delivering its verdict. It’s nothing to do with individual posters on a BB! Ridiculous to think so. Losing money can make one’s thoughts irrational and delusional.
I do love it when people start suggesting £20/30mil market cap companies are being shorted in any meaningful way. How on earth do you get a stock borrow on a micro cap company? The ignorance is mind blowing.
Thanks Steve for the time and effort you have put into your analysis. Albeit very depressing and now begs the question what value if any is there in these shares? Many of us previously in profit are now definitely in the red. It almost seems like the whole enterprise has morphed inadvertently into an enormous Ponzi scheme.
I do agree Andrew, but I think this level of impact from Steve's info warrants an official response from the company..... and not just an interview.
An RNS'd clarification ..... if not a full rebuttal....
And a clear timeframe for the delivery of the study.