Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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Did CB's estimated full production gudiance previously at average gold prices for 22/23 not equate to more like approx £450k p/m to xtr Andrew? That instead of £300k p/m is my main point.
(BUT ..Allowing for already very slow build up to 'full production' and also the fact they have to go through processing plenty of non optimal stuff first to get to the optimal 'ard rock stuff, My GUESS is that from April to Dec this year may see an average of somewhat sub £250k p/m to xtr btw.... so say for eg £175k ish gbp in April and up to £300k ish p/m to xtr later in year)
Even at that in 2023 and valuing Bushranger as a v bad case £15m gbp sell on value .. the s/p should still be higher now imho eg 2.5p
Ntm
I believe a very conservative estimate of FB income is £300K a month FCF at full production. If so that is significant imho.
You could be right and it may be a lot less than that and not significant. Also the Economic model could show $10K break even and the POC may never get above that - even in the next 10 years.
If we believe the worst case will happen (and it might) then I can't see the point in anyone holding this now tbh.
My one liner with CB is .... just because you cant believe everything he says, doesn't mean you cant believe anything he says :)
We shall see.
You say Andrew:
We have a big asset in Bushranger (not as big as CB implied) ..
I'd also add: and not as quickly saleable as CB Implied
You also say:
and regular significant income to come from FB (not as soon as CB implied)
I'd also add: and -might easily prove - not to be as significant income to xtr.l as CB implied.
I really want to like Mr Colin Bird, and understood you have to be - at least - a glass half full guy to do what he does for as long as he has done.. and I get that anything can happen when you're drilling 'oles, so up to the - stock - buyer to understand the risks they're taking in getting involved in such stocks...etc..
BUT...
I could now make an arguement it's 'worse' CB is getting, and that from a starting position of meaningfully overly bullish in all things timeframe and revenue related to xtr.l. And that could reasonably be categorised as poor/disappointing performance in some - but not all granted - aspects of his job. And the clear answer in my mind is for him to bring senior management into xtr.l as soon as affordable that are good at the things he is not good at.
Well, Andrew, if you are correct in your timescales, at least it will afford an opportunity in April to crystalise a large capital loss and bed and ISA my shares, so that any eventual gain won’t be taxed! There’s a silver lining…
My confidence in CB's forward guidance has always been low - hence my many comments over the years and stating that he has been "deliberately deceptive" on a number of timescales and anticipated outputs
However, we must not conflate CB's very optimistic forward guidance comments with the fundamentals here.
We have a big asset in Bushranger (not as big as CB implied) and regular significant income to come from FB (not as soon as CB implied) . Many understandably feel let down or deceived by CB, but that doesnt mean there arent great fundamentals here or that the true value won't be realised at some point in the future. But that "at some point in the future" probably wont be this year so I suspect many have left as they cant / don't want to, wait that long and can see a quicker return in another small cap.
I good example of the potential here is assuming the economic model is very disappointing and shows a break even POC of say $9K or $9.5K . I doubt anyone, esp the majors, would not think POC will be well over that figure for the whole of LOM after it was built.
Worst case scenario here, imho, is that this is going to take a lot longer than CB implied.
Like many others, I’m sure, I’m now nearly 70% down on my investment here. I believed Colin when he said 2Mt+ at Bushranger, after the discovery of Ascot. And also his comment that if offered 10p a share, he’d tell them where to go…. Well, now, I’d be happy to just recoup my losses here and move on, with lessons learnt. There may well be a significant SP rise if the pit economic model is published and is favourable. In which case I will be grateful, but my confidence in Colin is now low, after his overly optimistic assessments, so I’ll be tempted to bail out if the SP rises to 5p again, and reinvest elsewhere.
Colin , We need an honest update here. I personally feel I had a good handle on xtr 12 month ago. I now feel like I am totally in the dark. Time for an update and forward plan please.
Oh dear. Hope springs eternal, as they say.
Hope no one has gone "all in" with Mr Bird on this one.
Hi egg it was ‘measured group’ the independent consultants that applied the cut off of 0.1 %Cu to the resource. To determine the COG you need to know how much it can be mined for from industry comparisons from similar mines, a basic recovery rate based on the one Met test work sample taken from Ascot previously and what the concentrates can be sold for. So ‘they’ would have worked from and applied a realistic determined saleable price.
But yes, now it is all about the high grade early recoverable ore that the PFS will be based around to show realistic economic viability. But it is wrong to suggest that grades down to 0.1 will be disregarded as they would not have been included in the JORC.
Hi Roggy hope you are well, there is no doubt the previous financial restraints that have held back the company from growing its portfololio has been down to the delayed plant development at Fairbride. Port restrictions/closures, Covid and whatever else occurred it’s easy to blame the BOD.
Must ignore the current share price and look at that potential of those assets and projected market cap.
Hopefully we will see an adjustment soon.
I have the Fenix-7. Great watch!
What you say makes sense but after 6 years of holding XTR one really wonders if this fenix will ever take off.
I just would like at least my hard earned money back
A strong Chinese economic recovery is looking more evident that will be the main driver for copper futures
>>>Copper futures rose above $4.15 per pound, approaching the seven-month high of $4.27 touched on January 26th and tracking the increase in other base metals amid persistent supply concerns and strong demand expectations. Investors continued to monitor the extent of improved Chinese purchasing after the country’s economic reopening, as new home sales grew for a third straight week in 16 major cities. Industrial demand is also expected to pick up as the government is set to announce further stimulus measures at its National People’s Congress in March. On the supply side, a series of production and export disruptions by major South and Central American producers compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe, adding to worries that copper markets could be heading into a severe deficit.
* tradingeconomis.com
You cannot ignore the effect that higher commodity prices will be having on the ongoing economics of the currently held projects. Bushranger is one thing, that will only become more desirable on top of the political and geographical jurisdictional landscape there is in Oz.
Then there is Fairbride, which I consider as, still being the primary asset, as production now will be a spring board for the company. Along with its current, proven mineral reserves, there is huge scope to increase its life of mine as the ore body is open down dip and to the west. But beforehand within a four or five years when all the oxides and transitional ore has been mined, the higher grade deeper sulphides can be processed on site too, with the planned plant upgrades talked about.
Elsewhere across the concession, with the well known geological understanding there is, taken from an earlier scoping study -
>>Importantly, the concept study indicated that much of the Manica Project area would be readily amenable to low-cost surface mining techniques, and that it exhibits no particular technical or economic risk issues that could undermine its operational viability.<<
The later PEA for Fairbride is based on gold price of only US$1.250.
All other small to medium scale mining operations that have already and will be taken on under the current growth strategy, can be easily accommodated in the project portfolio. There is no long term limit as to how many projects can be taken on due to how these JV’s are structured and individually project managed.
Xtract resources is in a very strong position if you have a longer term outlook, notwithstanding a multi million dollar short term potential return from BR.
I continually look elsewhere to compare as I re-evaluate Xtract at every key RNS and have not yet come across a better investment opportunity that offers both short-med term high return and investment longevity under a solid ‘growth’ strategy that I understand and can relate to that will only get better and better as prices rise.
CB better a get a move on with this buy-out.... hes going to lose a few million options if he doesnt strike a deal in next 12 months
"The New Options will lapse five years after the date of the award, being 19 February 2024"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/directorpdmr-shareholding-m5g41puow1y4x62.html
Still worth a lot more than the existing share price. Buts it’s not worth hundreds of millions, that dream went for me
This is what they stated in the notes section of the ascot update. So it gives u an insight in their own assessments. The problem is that a more conservative copper price will probably be used for any buyout, therefore I can see the ore down to 0.1% being disregarded - it’s all about tte high grade element in imho and we need to finish off finding all of the ascot high grade element.
‘’’’’A cut-off grade of 0.1% CuEq has been used applying a copper price of US$8,800/t, a gold price of US$1,800/Oz and a silver price of US$24/Oz’’’’
I think these prices are quoted in US 'short tons', i.e 2000 lbs, not the metric tonne (2204 lbs) or the long ton (2240 lbs).
Over 9100 certainly, but that price is quoted in $, not £
Price per tonne is £9100 ATM
The asset is looking more viable by the day.
I’m just wondering what history has to do with ‘current fundamentals’.
So for 7 years the majority of that, Manica with the Fairbride plant under “development” was the primary asset, and you decide to sell up just before any meaningful revenues from it are reported.
I don’t understand the logic. You had waited this long.
Best of luck to you too.
Your first two posts on two companies today
Good effort
" i finaly lost faith & sold at start of December before the latest collapse in price"
The share price was 2 to 2.1p at the start of December - just slightly more than now and significantly lower 2 weeks earlier.
The fall started in Mid Nov so you didnt sell before the collapse.
With the narrative of our post I'm not too sure why you decided to title it "Long term hold !"
Thank goodness i finaly lost faith & sold at start of December before the latest collapse in price. Having held from the glory days of Chillian mines some7 years ago, when some promise made a gamble in XTR look Worth a try. The continual farce of events promising a return on investment for shareholders however, never quite materialising. History is testomy as to why any private investors should consider very carefully the fundamentals when considering investing in this company.
7 years of reading this message board has been illuminating as to the comedy value as opposed to any serious value. Best wishes to all private shareholders, i sincerely wish you the best of luck.
Is encouraging they are doing all the technical work to increase Kakuyu run of mine and to maximise tonnage for delivery of ore. Regarding JLP Sable plant, noticed in the podcast that he mentions they have sent ore to various processing plants for testing! Likely due to compatibility , but maybe there is opportunity to utilise various plants concurrently to maximise revenue so outlay by the mining contractor can be paid back quicker?
Kakuyu JV agreement
>>reimburse US$90,000 to Oval in respect of stripping and mining to date on the Kakuyu Project, to be settled from cash flow by the reduction of Xtract's percentage share of net profit from 60% to 20% for the period required to reimburse Oval.
Feel Kakuyu will do really well, particularly if targets are met then an on site processing plant can be built.