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>>As you are so fond of taking what CB says at face value then do tell, how you feel your timing was bad??
Like many gixxer, I bought into xtr for BR after the dead cat bounce from the first big spike. Beforehand I did some basic research into the company etc but my main reason was locational so was comfortable enough to understood what I was buying into. I am still happy with my many purchases at those times. But like many I allowed myself to get swept along with CB without fully evaluating the bigger picture of just how much work, money and time goes into proving a viable resource.
No, I’m paid per word ;-)
>>I really don't know how he can get away with spouting wishful thinking as facts.
I'm not sure he can, over the last few months I've been collating and saving his interviews/presentations and making note of the statements he's made. If BR turns out to be no-viable after all Bird's been spouting I will be looking to take legal actions against him. Let's face it it's not as if he was hinting that BR could be good - He was shouting from the rooftops that it was going to be a world class asset.
In one interview he stated that the mine, BR, would still be going after all in the room were 'long dead'. I hope I've got more than 9years left in me....
I really don't know how he can get away with spouting wishful thinking as facts, the cash I put in here based on his "facts" was real enough.
I think Steve rattled him big time (as well as the SP) the mask slipped a bit that day.
I agree we need some one to take over the running of the company that doesn't get carried away with wishful thinking that costs us money.
I think CB is spread too thin across his many companies and when he loses interest in one it goes to sh.it.
Worst way, even after the extented drill campaign we should have all been counting our gains by now, not our (paper)losses.
We know you read these boards Colin, you have an obligation to us shareholders to do more or get someone else to do it for us.
>>I personally 100% do not blame anyone but myself for my timing. Really HZ? As you are so fond of taking what CB says at face value then do tell, how you feel your timing was bad?
According to CB, BR would have hit 2MT by now and would have been sold as a T1 world class asset. His own words at a formal presentation to shareholders: 'will it be a mine, yes!!' - The reality is none of us have any idea!
Are you paid per post here?
Is assuring to see the Oz government is actively encouraging new large mine development with its minerals strategy. Potential stumbling blocks in obtaining permissions down the line for open pit mines due to increasing social and environmental acceptances around the world could put potential buyers off in ‘less’ politically friendly and more environmentally sensitive jurisdictions.
Worth a read through although the relevant note of interest is the foreword from the minister for resources. Is from 2019 but is still current.
https://meg.resourcesregulator.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-06/NSW-Minerals-Strategy-2019.pdf
Sorry guys that article is not showing. Another major copper minning company joining the market
I know the perfect purchase
Happy to arrange contact
https://www.ft.com/content/16b8c09f-9cda-42cc-8a64-d4073891b297
I am now surprised, that folk are still referring to the previous over optimism from CB. Let it go, move on. If you were confident enough in what it was you were buying into originally, ignore anything previously verbally stated in podcasts or other, trawl back through the key RNS releases for BR such as ‘21 concept study, projects summarised in the audited reports and the interim exploration summary. Watch the BR presentation again and possibly the team webinars and I’m sure you will feel more content with where the resource sits at present and what may need to still be done without having the heightened anticipation of the targets that had been set.
Without yet the BR economic study and revenue from full production reported at Fairbride, this is arguably not far from where the market cap could or should be anyway considering the economic downturn. But….. and it’s a big but, without CB ramping the hell out of it, the £6million fund raises and options would have seen possibly far more than double the dilution to shares already in issue.
Flip side being the many investors including myself that bought in at a greater share price that are now sitting on a paper loss. I personally 100% do not blame anyone but myself for my timing.
Ultimately though, in that respect, he has achieved greater value for many shareholders particularly the LTH’s who ironically, do seem to be shouting the loudest ;-)
3/4 million ??
Even he doesn't believe his bulls.hit that much !
Lol !
Unlikely!
It would seem most peoples concerns are the wait untill next year for a sale and also saving our FB earnings to pay for the Ascot drills . May i suggest CB puts in £3/4 mllion of his own money towards these costs only refundable upon a sale of Bushranger. This would be the ultimate confidence booster for us all.
>>In short, CB's expectation management is shocking and self destructive.
In terms of CB never a truer word spoken.....at the ripe old age of 80 he still acts like an exited child. Now that's fine in many respects but certainly not when he should be acting in a professional manner...
You've only got to look at the other companies he's invested and see the same thing happening there. Even good/half decent news releases and the SP goes nowhere.
He's well and truly tainted his name (IMO) and it's time for new blood.
As I've said before Bird has his positives but that isn't running companies/giving presentations/interviews. He should be in the background looking for deals and kept away from the mic! (IMO)
fair enough Andrew, and in the round we're on the same page with this imho....
PS:
''CB's expectation management is shocking and self destructive.''
Agreed.
(Indeed, I'd go as far as splitting out his up front expectation management from his 'in play' expectation management, both shocking and self destructive imho.. with the in play being less forgivable, even)
"Did CB's estimated full production gudiance previously at average gold prices for 22/23 not equate to more like approx £450k p/m to xtr Andrew? That instead of £300k p/m is my main point."
NtM this is a good example of of the point I was making.
If FB income is "only" £300K then CBs forward guidance of £450K a month will have proven to be nonsense (as usual) . He also talked about the $1M a month income from all income sources which we are nowhere near.
But although the reality will no doubt be much less than Cb's guidance, it will still be a significant amount, possibly transformational ie £300K a month FB alone?.
In you previous post you said
"I'd also add: and -might easily prove - not to be as significant income to xtr.l as CB implied."
You didnt just say it could be a lot less than CB's guidance (which I'm sure it will be) you said "not be significant". That was the point I was challenging.
Being a lot less than Cb's guidance, doesn't mean not significant. And therefore things not happening as quickly or at the levels that Cb implied doesnt mean nothing of significant note and value is happening.
In short, CB's expectation management is shocking and self destructive.
Did CB's estimated full production gudiance previously at average gold prices for 22/23 not equate to more like approx £450k p/m to xtr Andrew? That instead of £300k p/m is my main point.
(BUT ..Allowing for already very slow build up to 'full production' and also the fact they have to go through processing plenty of non optimal stuff first to get to the optimal 'ard rock stuff, My GUESS is that from April to Dec this year may see an average of somewhat sub £250k p/m to xtr btw.... so say for eg £175k ish gbp in April and up to £300k ish p/m to xtr later in year)
Even at that in 2023 and valuing Bushranger as a v bad case £15m gbp sell on value .. the s/p should still be higher now imho eg 2.5p
Ntm
I believe a very conservative estimate of FB income is £300K a month FCF at full production. If so that is significant imho.
You could be right and it may be a lot less than that and not significant. Also the Economic model could show $10K break even and the POC may never get above that - even in the next 10 years.
If we believe the worst case will happen (and it might) then I can't see the point in anyone holding this now tbh.
My one liner with CB is .... just because you cant believe everything he says, doesn't mean you cant believe anything he says :)
We shall see.
You say Andrew:
We have a big asset in Bushranger (not as big as CB implied) ..
I'd also add: and not as quickly saleable as CB Implied
You also say:
and regular significant income to come from FB (not as soon as CB implied)
I'd also add: and -might easily prove - not to be as significant income to xtr.l as CB implied.
I really want to like Mr Colin Bird, and understood you have to be - at least - a glass half full guy to do what he does for as long as he has done.. and I get that anything can happen when you're drilling 'oles, so up to the - stock - buyer to understand the risks they're taking in getting involved in such stocks...etc..
BUT...
I could now make an arguement it's 'worse' CB is getting, and that from a starting position of meaningfully overly bullish in all things timeframe and revenue related to xtr.l. And that could reasonably be categorised as poor/disappointing performance in some - but not all granted - aspects of his job. And the clear answer in my mind is for him to bring senior management into xtr.l as soon as affordable that are good at the things he is not good at.
Well, Andrew, if you are correct in your timescales, at least it will afford an opportunity in April to crystalise a large capital loss and bed and ISA my shares, so that any eventual gain won’t be taxed! There’s a silver lining…
My confidence in CB's forward guidance has always been low - hence my many comments over the years and stating that he has been "deliberately deceptive" on a number of timescales and anticipated outputs
However, we must not conflate CB's very optimistic forward guidance comments with the fundamentals here.
We have a big asset in Bushranger (not as big as CB implied) and regular significant income to come from FB (not as soon as CB implied) . Many understandably feel let down or deceived by CB, but that doesnt mean there arent great fundamentals here or that the true value won't be realised at some point in the future. But that "at some point in the future" probably wont be this year so I suspect many have left as they cant / don't want to, wait that long and can see a quicker return in another small cap.
I good example of the potential here is assuming the economic model is very disappointing and shows a break even POC of say $9K or $9.5K . I doubt anyone, esp the majors, would not think POC will be well over that figure for the whole of LOM after it was built.
Worst case scenario here, imho, is that this is going to take a lot longer than CB implied.
Like many others, I’m sure, I’m now nearly 70% down on my investment here. I believed Colin when he said 2Mt+ at Bushranger, after the discovery of Ascot. And also his comment that if offered 10p a share, he’d tell them where to go…. Well, now, I’d be happy to just recoup my losses here and move on, with lessons learnt. There may well be a significant SP rise if the pit economic model is published and is favourable. In which case I will be grateful, but my confidence in Colin is now low, after his overly optimistic assessments, so I’ll be tempted to bail out if the SP rises to 5p again, and reinvest elsewhere.
Colin , We need an honest update here. I personally feel I had a good handle on xtr 12 month ago. I now feel like I am totally in the dark. Time for an update and forward plan please.
Oh dear. Hope springs eternal, as they say.
Hope no one has gone "all in" with Mr Bird on this one.
Hi egg it was ‘measured group’ the independent consultants that applied the cut off of 0.1 %Cu to the resource. To determine the COG you need to know how much it can be mined for from industry comparisons from similar mines, a basic recovery rate based on the one Met test work sample taken from Ascot previously and what the concentrates can be sold for. So ‘they’ would have worked from and applied a realistic determined saleable price.
But yes, now it is all about the high grade early recoverable ore that the PFS will be based around to show realistic economic viability. But it is wrong to suggest that grades down to 0.1 will be disregarded as they would not have been included in the JORC.
Hi Roggy hope you are well, there is no doubt the previous financial restraints that have held back the company from growing its portfololio has been down to the delayed plant development at Fairbride. Port restrictions/closures, Covid and whatever else occurred it’s easy to blame the BOD.
Must ignore the current share price and look at that potential of those assets and projected market cap.
Hopefully we will see an adjustment soon.
I have the Fenix-7. Great watch!