The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Carnt believe this in now under 2 now and probably heading to 1.5 shocked
Hi zaphoid thanks for sharing the geo for investors article. What I found of interest, being a part time eco warrior and environmentalist was this….
>>>Environmental protection, permits (legal and social), and the eventual closure of the mine must all be considered during this phase (PFS)<<
An Environmental Impact Assessment is a requirement to ‘allow’ continued development and for during the eventual mining of the ore reserves. It usually involves ‘many’ specialist consultants from areas such as archaeology to flora and fauna to potentially geo hydrology as there is a stream that crosses the deposit that would potentially have to be diverted or other.
Its aim, will be to show a baseline for a company to monitor and manage its environmental impact on the ecology, the environment, as well as on the local community throughout development and operational stages.
However, an EIA is usually carried out prior to a definitive feasibility study as is not a necessity at Pre feasibility level, so is unlikely one will be required by Xtract as the project is looking to be sold after a PFS and not be further developed.
Only mention, as EIA’s are rather expensive as will be the PFS, which I believe could be a trimmed down version that focuses more on the economics and mine planning phases. Just a hunch could be wrong.
https://www.geologyforinvestors.com/starting-a-mine/
Some more information on feasibility studies for newbies, and less experienced resource investors. We were all there at some point.
Thank you
https://investingnews.com/empress-royalty-projects-7-million-revenue/
If you go on twitter and type in Gold investing News its there latest interview
Cant get the link down , is on twitter , the interview is with Gold investing News , Investingnews.com will try and copy and paste again , try that web address in the mean time
Where is that interview available? Can you post a link? Thank you.
Hard to believe demand for copper increasing but the copper explorers just can't gain traction.
Interview on 7 th Feb , their CEO is expecting $7 million dollars in royalties this year , $1.5 million from a ramping up Manica
On a slightly separate but related (by Colin Bird and Zambia) topic, Galileo Resources Plc
declared a maiden JORC 2012 Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate for the Luansobe Copper Project, Zambia. Maybe this is what is keeping Colin busy at the moment. Can't say he doesnt hustle for his money, unlike some other really corrupt AIM board types I have come across (Braveheart, Sirius Minerals and Anglo African Oil and Gas to name just 3).
Good morning ladies and gents, and anyone who identifies as anything else.
Lots of good points this morning, but as usual timelines and Colin Bird do not go together very well, but he does keep his own gravy train going.
I think stevemocal has it closest to reality when he states tha CB : " has the updated report and will just keep 'processing' the data until the price of copper is higher and he has acquired enough revenue from Fairbride to fund a short phase 3."
Can a Decision to Mine (DTM) be made without a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS)?
Short aswer is No.
So we are at least 3-6 months off from a point where we can get the DTM done and get an Anglo decision made so we can then open up a sale to other potential buyers. Data room, negotiations etc Maybe a year from a sale so into 2024.
Quite far from Colin's misdirected babble about a sale in 2022.
I do get your point Andrew, but it ultimately comes down to wether or not funding will be in place for the next leg up in resource from income. If so then it wouldn’t necessarily require that anticipated increase in copper, as there will not be a need to keep dilution at a minimum from any further raise. Keeping shareholders happy would come a distant second if there was not a need to come to them with the begging bowl.
Reporting income from fairbride semi annually could be a sign that at present, there are inadequate funds in the treasury to support a drill campaign yet???
Whatever the vehicle for the true economical assessment, PFS? The market would not respond well to an initial resource model showing a breakeven figure less than or the same as the current POC. The market would not be thinking ...
"well we all know POC is going much higher in future years so its all going to be great"
CB has a responsibility to increase shareholder value and he wont be doing that, at least in the short term, if he released a model showing current POC is lower than breakeven.
As for POC tankng by 20%. Thats exactly why the majors do their calcs, before a buyout offer, at discount to current POC. Cadia new resource used $7700 POC in their calcs when POC was much higher
The updated mining study due will be more or less be the preliminary economic assessment, which is basically just a snap shot of the current economic potential that will point to where improvements can be made to progress the project toward the next level. This updated study will not form the basis of any negotiation or subsequent valuation. It cannot support the economic assumptions required that a PFS will.
CB has been clear in stating AA will want to see hard numbers, and when the updated study due is released it will go onto PFS.
It is not a particularly rampy thing to say in the light of current sentiment as it implies far longer timescales now, than previously offered. So in that respect is certainly more believable than some of his previous comments on 2mt and such.
I simply can’t believe strategy going forward is based on hope POC plays ball. What if it tanks by 20%? Surely everyone in the industry knows the long term prospects for copper are good/amazing, any negotiators should easily be able to quickly agree a reasonable price set to base their discussions on. Anyway the model will surely already have that price set included which will form the basis of negotiation. If the model release is delayed, then any necessary drilling programme is also delayed. That would be plain stupid IMO
" I personally think he has the updated report and will just keep 'processing' the data until the price of copper is higher and he has acquired enough revenue from Fairbride to fund a short phase 3. "
Agreed.
Maybe I'm reading too much into his recent comment, but he went from early 2023 for ES to... I don't know when it will be released - just 2 weeks ago. He seems to be pushing time scales out maybe to give himself more time as POC (he thinks) will start to go higher.
With no FB income news due for some time and possibly no ES for a few months, this could be a barren time for any significant news.
The opposite of 'early' is 'late' and there is the middle bit between the two. You would therefore think that for something to be early in the year, it would have to be in the first four months. But CB isn't exactly renowned for using precise language when it comes to timescales... so who knows.
I personally think he has the updated report and will just keep 'processing' the data until the price of copper is higher and he has acquired enough revenue from Fairbride to fund a short phase 3. If a few extra drill holes can make a significant difference to the amount of resource and business case viability, then let's get it done.
This time next year, Rodney.
Joe
It may be possible that it is ready for release at end of Q1, but I would be amazed if CB released it just after it was ready rather than at a more opportune time subject to POC. No point releasing it if breakeven figure is less or same as POC
As CB thinks POC will be going higher this year, I think he may hold off the release until later.
Yes I know that is not within AIM rules, but I think we have all seen CB being rather creative in his timing re release of news (Alluvial income?) so he may well wait until the most appropriate time to release ES...
Thats why I think Q2 is more likely than Q1 even though it may be ready for release by end of Q1
Thats my view but obviously I could be wrong......it may be Q3 :).
The only thing I would comment Andy is that he described the study just before christmas as "Recently commissioned".
Now there must be time savings made by using the same consultants to prepare this as they used to prepare the first model on the original JORC as all that information stays in..... but is 3 months enough time to refresh the original JORC with all that new drilling and assay information? Im going to maintain some hope that it is delivered by the end of Q1 but I can understand why you might think Q2 is more likely.
GLA
Copper is now considered to have recovered to an adequate level to support NPV that will be used toward the eventual process of valuation.
Considering the project will be looking to be worked toward pre feasibility, there will be a fairly comprehensive drill programme ahead required to support that and complete the further testing elsewhere that has been suggested.
At present there are only 50mt of indicated resource that can support an initial early mining phase to pay back CapEx and show profitability. Indicated or measured resources can ‘only’ be considered toward a PFS.
The reasons for waiting any longer to release what is, an updated study would be on the premise that fairbride has not or is not reaching expected production levels. To build up from revenue and have the funds in place to cover the contractual obligations of a further drilling programme. Or, ominously to see a further fund raise if that income is not as expected.
Once again depends on wether you are a half glass empty or half glass full kind of person. ;-)
"I guess the question is: 'when is early in the year' for the update on the open pit mining study"
In the last roast interview 2 weeks ago CB quickly said " I don;t know when the economic study will be completed" I took that as meaning it won;t be this quarter.
I suspect the ES will not be released until CB thinks the time is right, rather than when its completed and ready.
I don't expect it will be released until Q2 and probably mid / late Q2 when POC should be higher??
It was only 4 months back on 30th September that it was stated in half year report prior to the resource statements being released, that the updated study was due by end of ‘22.
They have likely been dragging it out and the study is already completed. They would have benefitted from waiting, until now, as market conditions, particularly precious metals are showing to be increasing in demand. Hence early into ‘23 the recent forecast.
Maybe soon, after CB has rounded up operational updates across his other companies. It will allow him to concentrate then, on plugging the updated mining study with hopefully a webinar presentation to showcase the project.
It’s an important news release for the project and the company after 2 years since drilling commenced in Oz. Let’s hope the market likes it.
>>generally remained true to facts.
Sorry that’s nonsense what I meant to say was the company have generally remained on track with ‘aims’ that have been stated in those RNS
Yay, welcome back Lukewarm Lenny! We’ve missed your pearls of wisdom!
>>Its a case of being honest with his shareholders !
I fully understand your reasoning LW although in response I would say is that ‘all’ information released to the market via RNS is honest and generally remained true to facts.