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All quiet on the western front?!?!?
Not much activity on the forum of late. SP hitting GBP6.00 today. Surely with the cost of holding these short positions must become too burdensome? After some research I found out that Spain and Italy are unlikely to be purchasing based on Dutch TTF and that they have their own gas markets which are notable cheaper. Especially now that Europe has had its most mild December in history.
@Alfista, you must have known this given your knowledge about the sector, or do you only share information that supports short positions?
@alfista
I suppose if we follow your thinking then it's apocalypse for the energy markets.
But on a more positive note, I've been told that Mr Wild Wolf is buying more shares next week and there will be an RNS confirming this.
Have you heard anything?
Maybe Wilding is using his kids' Christmas money to fund his spending spree.
Yes, there was last time around, but not before an awful lot of high energy users were put out of business, to the benefit of others who sere based in countries with more sensible policies on use of cost efficient production fuels. And that isn't in Europe. I'm told that there are many kilns standing idle at the moment.
One of the few things I have to agree with you on. Definitely the poorer countries suffer more.
Bangladesh economy is primed for an upturn. I've actually invested small amounts in a couple of companies.
There is life beyond the energy crisis.
Very much still around.
High gas pricing shows no sign of abating. Got to feel for poorer countries, Bangladesh unable to get gas deliveries as they can't afford current prices, it's being sold to EU instead. All the green policies punish those least able to pay.
@alfista
Looks like desperate time with recaster replying to himself.
Probably @blackboulder getting bored so churning out a different set of figures.
What's happened to your mate The Energy Crisi? Still around?
Two different threads. First posts as new to this website. I think the bias is in the published accounts rather than the recast accounts.
You don't think "recasting" is a bit of dodgy biased analysis then? Anyway, why are you replying to yourself, did you forget to log on as a different ID ??
I think you're on the right track here. Using figures instead of whispers in the wind.
Had a look at the accounts and recast them. There are some pretty concerning details in them. Posted the info at:
Interims:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/update-victoria-plc-vcplse
Annuals:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-analysis-victoria-plc-vcplse
These links include attached recast accounts separating out lower quality earnings from higher quality ones. Some questions on comprehensive income and the company being stuck in an acquisition treadmill to generate negative goodwill which it takes under IFRS 3 to the revenue statement.
Very promising to see another US investor, Capital Research, one of the biggest funds in the world with $300 billion under management, announcing today that they have bought 2.5 million shares.
Short squeeze coming.. check the shorts been reducing in recent days, squeeze to £6+ incoming by xmas
Well given that you have a negative opinion regardless I am not surprised you see it that way. Large profit? what is that based on? Information you have working with the shorting institutions? As per public data they opened a short position of 0.51% on the 14th of September when the price varied between GBP468p and GBP578p, and then they picked up more at even lower prices on 3rd and 12th Oct, with a small amount at a higher price on the 24th Oct. Based on the volatility of prices they may or may not have made a profit but I doubt it was "large". Please shed any light on any information you are able to put together from your sources, as I am dependent on public information.
That said, them making a small profit or loss after the interest costs they incurred is totally irrelevant for retail investors here. The only relevant fact is that they are exiting or "reducing their position" (as you insist on calling it). This signals that they do not expect it to continue a downward trend, otherwise why close their position?
So in answer to your question "Just means they crystallised their gain doesn't it?" : i couldnt care less. They are no longer willing to maintain their short position.
Do you mean "reduced their position at a large profit"
Just means they crystallised their gain doesn't it?
Whilst there has been less movement than what I expected since the release of the half year results, it is very interesting to see that yet another institutional shorter (after Blackrock) has reduced their short position below the threshold at which they are reported. well another one bites the dust with Coltrane and Boldhaven yet to concede. The latter two closing would result in much more SP volatility as their positions are much bigger than what Blackrock and Marble had.
Y'right
going up by look of it. £5 break and heading up towards recent highs and probably £6 short term
There is some recognition of the difficulties facing the company in the next period, although much is glossed over in all the flowery rhetoric. Energy crisis, consumer caution, difficult trading conditions. This time it's not me saying it.
Thoughts on todays price falling? Any ideas?
@blackboulder
@black boulder
No reply about Wilding spending his own money?
Very easy to spend company money.
For some reason I can't paste dutch ttf prices on barchart, but you can look yourself. Futures are trending up, not down.
I tihnk if you have a wee look at the European wholesale Gas price, you'll see an even bigger decline with prices hovering around the €95 MWh mark end of October (was €349 MWh a tthe end of August). Last time I checked he EU's average storage capacity was running at c.93%, which is also a substanital increase in reserves (the oriignal price hike being driven by governments rush for storage). Still high yes, but as stated, not quite your armageddon portrayal and as a few posters have noted, already well (too well) factored into the SP. €349 MWh to under €100 - now that's pretty basic. ;-)
Ps. thanks for the heads-up with the calendar - November it is. ;-)
Could I gently point out that October was exceptionally mild, and that we are no longer in October. Also, the big consuming production plants are not in UK, so the UK energy price is utterly useless as a piece of information. Strewth mate, basic logic.
According to Aurora Energy Research, "wholesale prices in GB continued to drop in October, with baseload prices decreasing to £120/MWh, a 54% reduction from September. The main driver of this was gas prices, which fell by 56% to £37/MWh. Low carbon generation moved into winter generation patterns, with a 21% increase, despite solar generation decreasing by 21%, due to onshore and offshore wind generation increasing by 58% and 59%, respectively since September."
Not quite the energy price armageddon then (as repeatedly forecasted here by our sensitive shorter). ;-)
Very interesting @blackboulder
If Geoff Wilding was as serious as you say then he would be buying shares with his own personal money. It’s all good using company money.. would say a lot more to the SH if he used his own wallet!
As for his wealth being tied up already in 22 million Victoria shares, maybe he should sell his Yacht and his Private plane and invest some of that to get this back where it belongs.
It will be an interesting few weeks but all this could be fast tracked by the man himself if he were to stop being such a tight fisted sailor!