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All quiet on the western front?!?!?
Not much activity on the forum of late. SP hitting GBP6.00 today. Surely with the cost of holding these short positions must become too burdensome? After some research I found out that Spain and Italy are unlikely to be purchasing based on Dutch TTF and that they have their own gas markets which are notable cheaper. Especially now that Europe has had its most mild December in history.
@Alfista, you must have known this given your knowledge about the sector, or do you only share information that supports short positions?
Well given that you have a negative opinion regardless I am not surprised you see it that way. Large profit? what is that based on? Information you have working with the shorting institutions? As per public data they opened a short position of 0.51% on the 14th of September when the price varied between GBP468p and GBP578p, and then they picked up more at even lower prices on 3rd and 12th Oct, with a small amount at a higher price on the 24th Oct. Based on the volatility of prices they may or may not have made a profit but I doubt it was "large". Please shed any light on any information you are able to put together from your sources, as I am dependent on public information.
That said, them making a small profit or loss after the interest costs they incurred is totally irrelevant for retail investors here. The only relevant fact is that they are exiting or "reducing their position" (as you insist on calling it). This signals that they do not expect it to continue a downward trend, otherwise why close their position?
So in answer to your question "Just means they crystallised their gain doesn't it?" : i couldnt care less. They are no longer willing to maintain their short position.
Whilst there has been less movement than what I expected since the release of the half year results, it is very interesting to see that yet another institutional shorter (after Blackrock) has reduced their short position below the threshold at which they are reported. well another one bites the dust with Coltrane and Boldhaven yet to concede. The latter two closing would result in much more SP volatility as their positions are much bigger than what Blackrock and Marble had.
No, I did not say further adverse news would not result in a negative impact on the SP, and frankly I am not sure where you derived that from my comments. However, I do not consider the winter coming as adverse news. Where I live, winter comes every year, and we know when it arrives.
Supplies as you say are not so critical in the short term because the is an abundant supply in the form of LNG tankers awaiting discharge (albeit at a profit) and reserves are full. Now that could change, and that would be an adverse impact. However, as long as reserves are close to 100% there isn’t an immediate concern of supply.
Please feel free to share articles on any production issues. I expect that smaller producers would struggle more than the large producers, but I couldn’t speak to that very much. Well maybe no one was expecting positive new a couple of month ago yet there was a positive RNS on first half performance and a new acquisition.
@Alfista, I hear your concerns and they are real concerns. However surely the reasons you have highlighted are why the share prices is less than 50% of its last 12-month peak. So my very pessimistic friend, it seems to me that the matters you raise have already been factored into the share price. Inflation is not a new topic, energy prices is not a new topic, property construction etc. these are all known factors for months and months and have been taken into account by the market.
The cause for some optimism however is that the more recent RNS's state that the company is on track to hit €100m EBITDA in the first half of the year. You correctly point out that people are paying higher mortgage payments. You should also be fully aware then that the shorters pay interest on their positions... in this economic environment this is a very costly play, especially if the share price is on the rise. Brokers will call a margin to maintain these positions.
As I have mentioned energy prices have recently come down, and in some countries is subsidised for industrial use. It gives me further confidence that all but one institutional investor has held their shareholding and Spruce House has actually increased its shareholding.
It was definately a very interesting week with a hugh close. Maybe one of the shorters closed their position? I guess we will find out tomorrow. Regardless of what triggered the share price increase this week gone, I would be quite concerned if I was a large shorter. My guess is that shorters will either go in harder to put downward pressure on the stock, or give up and potentially cuase it to increase exponentially.
@aks343, I did't post because i did not deem it necessary. My previous answer was very clear. You claimed that Spruce House may not have the capital and may need to pull out of VCP and I highlighted clearly that it wasn’t the case if they have just purchased 1,4m shares. Whether they purchased from another institutional investor or not, is not really relevant to your argument. That said, SH purchased more shares than Vulcan sold.
Anyway back to important developments… interesting to see Blackrock reduce it’s short position to the lowest since it started shorting in May. Could this be a sign of things to come? I wonder what the interest is on loaning VCP stocks now. Anyone have access to that information?
I guess we will see movement in one direction following the full release of financials at the end of the month.
I don’t know on whose behalf you have conducted all your research, nor will I investigate your little list of stocks, but it seems very diligent of you to have enlightened us all so much. However, for such a diligent chap, you have omitted the most relevant information... or maybe it just didn't serve your interest?
Please see RNS from the 13th of October where Spruce House increased their shareholding in VCP by 1.4m shares. Maybe you should review all RNS's whilst you're there. They are much more relevant to the trading price than your little investigation.
Seeing as you like investigating the portfolios of institutions, have you conducted a similar investigation for the performance of the shorting institutions (Blackrock maybe)? Probably not, that would just be counter intuitive. Or maybe it’s just that it’s (literally) a bit too close to home?
I won't sit here a list all the poor performaing positions of the shorters nor the investors. Its just best not to cherry pick your information to support a preconceived argument.
As a small shareholder myself, should I also list the performance of all of my other stocks? or is that equally as irrelevant as the informative post below?
Only important factor is Victoria management, not trading positions of shareholders' other investments. It would be great if we could keep posts relevant to VCP and factors that impact VCP stock price. Surely this is the aim of this forum, no a place for the propaganda divisions of shorting institutions. Hence why most make posts during working their office.
Yes, there are clearly difficulties in the market, no one is denying that. Yet I am of the opinion (right or wrong) that this is more than reflected in the share price decline from 12 pounds already. Anyway, whilst the share price performace this weeek was poor, I was pleased to see it was nothing more than an increased short position, which is very close to the levels seen in 2018, afterwhich there was a huge rebound in price. Will history repeat itself? We shall see over the next few months I expect.
@Alfista, my aim is not to just make comments that reassure myself. However, whilst the things you have raised are totally valid, the war, EU energy policy and infrastructure etc. these are all known factors for months (some for years) and are effectively factored into all share prices. What I wanted to raise is that recent developments, such as mild winter, full reserves, LNG tanker queue, continued acquisitions in the US, continued share buy-backs, positive trading update by Victoria and optimism amongst analysts are all factors that should be influencing the share price today, this week, this month.
Again, all of the factors you raise are known and were expected. It is extremely clear to me that the current situation (e.g. mild winter, full reserves, numerous pending LNG tankers) is clearly much better than what the market was predicting.
In addition, we have the positive trading news that was released last week, the acquisition that was announced, and continued share buy-backs. The more shares Victoria buy back, the less stocks that are available for the shorters to eventually settle their loaned shares.
Given the above, my outlook is optimistic and i will hold on my investment.
Whilst storage in the UK is quite poor, elsewhere in Europe it is not the case. Germany, which is supoosedly the country worst afffected by energy supply have 3 months worth of reserves. That does not include the LNG tankers waiting to offload at the terminals.
Whilst the energy situation is generally quite poor, it is in the best possible situation given the current environment and infrastructure available. It also has a considerably better outlook than it did a month ago.
The SP has been quite volatile this week. I suspect this is due to the increase in short position of Marble and Coltrane followed by positive trading, which I assume is off the back of the positive news from the Company and the market last week.
Dutch TTF gas prices continue to decline due to Europe experiencing a mild winter and reserves full to the brim. In fact, not only are reserves full, there are huge LNG tankers waiting to offload to regasification terminals across Europe (effectively reserves are more than 100% if tankers are included).
htTps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/europe-s-lng-import-deluge-spurs-spanish-oversupply-warning
The article above explains this oversupply. Please note it is a reputable source and recent information, unlike other posts on here. Interestingly, the article highlights “ Spain, whose six LNG terminals make up Europe’s largest regasification network”. This is great considering a material portion of VCP production is in Spain.
This gives me some optimism for the sector and recovery of a more normalised cost base for the next 6-12 months. However it is beyond me that shorters have increased their short positions.
I will not even entertain the other threads which is not able to provide a shred of tangible evidence, not relevant and all very historic. Instead let us discuss real tangible numbers.
I find it very interesting that VCP share price has increased from 400p to 516p without any serious director share purchase and no closing of shorts (still 4,93%). I can only assume that this is due to retail trading following positive RNS from the company, the Fitch report, and continued decline in gas prices (Dutch TTF hit €100 today).
This suggests that there is still a lot of share purchase volume pending as the shorters will have to settle their dues. Interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
It seems my links are removed automatically. I am sure you can find the Fitch report on VCP easily and the source I use is TradingEconomics for the Dutch TTF prices which currently are at €128 EUR/MWh, down from €340 at their peak in August.
For those predicting doom and gloom, Fitch ratings are expecting stability for VCP: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-victoria-plc-at-bb-outlook-stable-13-10-2022”
Great to see that the main European gas price benchmark (Dutch TTF) has come down to less than half its peak of 8 weeks ago. This will no doubt help production costs and stabilise pricing. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas