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There have been three independent analyst reports recently which price Victoria shares at around double the current share price; Singer Capital Markets wrote a report and priced the shares at 1,000p in May, Berenberg wrote a very detailed report and priced the shares at 880p in July, and Peel Hunt wrote a report and priced the shares at 900p just last week.
This year’s forecast Ebitda of around £200m is simply last year’s Ebitda plus the Balta acquisition, before any synergies or organic growth, and it was confirmed by Victoria last week that they are on track for that forecast.
The total Net Debt of £936m includes (very conservatively) categorising all of the Koch Preferred Equity as debt (which it isn’t, really).
Using an Ebitda multiple of 10x, that’s a price of 917p, before any synergies or organic growth.
It seems quite obvious, with 80-90% of the shares locked up with long-standing shareholders, and millions and millions of shares shorted, that a short squeeze is coming.
So, BB, which part if the Iceberg report is misinformation please?
Are the transactions they've referred to strictly arms length business , as the law requires, or are they in house paper shuffles which add no value?
That appears to me to be the crucial point.
So, what's the answer
Dear Alfista,
From my own research, including speaking directly to Victoria, I can report categorically that the transactions are arms length, commercial transactions, the acquisition of two long standing, profitable businesses.
If these were not arms length, commercial transactions, that would imply that the lawyers and accountants, the board, and also the auditors, were all complicit in a fraud. Hardly a realistic scenario for a UK publicly listed company.
Iceberg’s implied accusation, that these transactions were a scam or a fraud, are aimed at unsettling investors for the benefit of the shorters.
No need for the formality.
The cases quoted by Iceberg, HFL and Ezi Floor, are certainly puzzling aren't they? Why change the names so close to the transaction dates? If you've spoken to the company, and they have explained this to your satisfaction, I'd be surprised. they must tell the whole market anything of importance, not an individual. You may want to keep your head down if market rules have been broken.
To my mind, an official RNS clarification is required pronto, because silence is not golden, or helpful to the share value.
IMHO
Dear Alfista,
The information shared with me by Victoria is not sensitive or inside information at all as the company has merely confirmed that what they have told the market in their RNS statements and annual reports is correct. I have also checked the Companies House records, which are available for anyone to view, which further substantiates what Victoria has told me.
There is no requirement whatsoever for the company to issue a further RNS statement to confirm that what they said in their first RNS and in the annual reports is correct. There would be a requirement for such a further RNS if what they have previously told the market was not correct.
There is nothing unusual about company name changes that occur close to the time of an acquisition when it is the business and assets that are being acquired, and not the legal entity. In fact it is quite necessary for the old company to change its name and then for the new company to change its name, if the purchaser wants to use the name of the old company.
Any innuendo, that the transactions are scams, or fraud, as suggested by the Iceberg report, and repeated by conspiracy theorists and trolls working for the shorters, are a deliberate and dishonest attempt to undermine shareholder confidence and confuse the market, in order to support the trading positions of the shorters.
feels like it’s going up here
Very thorough research BlackBoulder. Even Mr Wild Thing couldn't conjure up something this good up in his year end report
I hear Roberto Moreno (MD Strategic Investments) is busy across the Atlantic working on a new acquisition.
@BlackBoulder - have you heard anything?
Look at the newbies on here licking each other's posts.
That gets my suspicions raised even further.
The company stands accused of wrongdoing, surely it is entirely necessary for them to refute the two specific accusations, that they had notified acquisitions which were not as stated. I accept entirely that shorters will make statements which support their positions, but it's my opinion that the company is required to answer these two matters.
quit your crying and get buying. this is going up soon
no crying here, just deep suspicion.
Are you for real? Read my posts on here, I've spelled our precisely what my concerns are.
quit crying. it’s going up in Q4. Monday it begins
@Alfista
You clearly have an agenda. Or you're hoping your sheer negativity will bring the share price down.
But as far as I can see, all the vital figures are suggesting an upturn.
DYOR.
I know where I'm putting my money
Not really, I just stumbled across the story about the Iceberg reports, and can't find a satisfactory response from the company. Either those 2 companies had the value they have attributed to them in the acounts, or they are worthless non assets. Their auditor should clarify how the valuation was created, then I may have the inkling it's a buy. On the other hand, they have a lot of energy intensive businesses which are severely affected by high European energy prices, with the distinct possibility of have production curtailed during a critical shortage this winter. Added to that, they supply to the building industry, which is catching the storm of rapid hikes in mortgage costs. Don't blame me if I don't share your view of rosy uplands, I can see from the reports that the board are full of uber bullish types, but I can't see how they'll overcome the practical issues for a fair old while. Good luck to you if you can see something I can't, that's shares though isn't it. You pays your money ....
“ Not really, I just stumbled across the story about the Iceberg reports”
and a whole lot more by the rest of the post lol
it’s not going down in an absolutely dire market. wait for the upturn
Well, if you think the practical issues of energy and mortgage costs don't exist, then you live in a different world to me.
You make the bull case on nothing but hope, I make the bear case based on what is actually happening, plus a material uncertainty. Your choice, but don't chew me out about it.
it’s dropped from well over a billion m/c to under 500 recently in anticipation of that bud.
@Alfista
Iceberg report isn't exactly a credible report. I have read the financial reports, and in my opinion, everything looks above board.
And traders seem to share this opinion as plenty of shares are being bought.
If the rumours going around of a new acquisition are correct, nothing stopping this from going back to previous heights, and beyond.
How can you tell? The whole point is that the financials attribute a large value to two acquired businesses that don't have a history that can be ascertained. All it would take would be for the company to release an RNS giving a full explanation to rebutt what Iceberg have reported. they have failed to do that so far, and, honestly, it does appear that you are an apologist for them.
Definitely not an apologist. I've recently stated on other platforms the Wilding should start concentrating on the company instead of his flashy little boat.
And also loosen his pockets a little, and buy more shares to give shareholders more confidence.
Despite some of the negatives, the trend is now slowly upwards, and a lot of people are buying.
Rhere must be a reason why so many shares are being bought?? They can't all be fools to be buying? Your thoughts?
My opinion is that the company buy backs are attempting to support the share price.
It's another of those where the management make lavish and ambitious claims, attempting to divert attention away from what is quite a serious housekeeping matter. I suspect it won't go away, and that they'll have to register a provision to adjust down the value of those two "acquisitions". Having said that, if they can officially answer the queries, then I'd be proven wrong. Then, you have to factor in the little matter of outrageous energy costs affecting production, nobody can be immune to that threat IMHO
I'm not going to be a doom merchant, there's value in this company, and many would agree.
A couple of £1mill buys have just popped up. Not exactly loose change. I'm no expert but all the buys will be demonstrating some buyer confidence.
Even if you feel the Chairman is useless and simply sits admiring his big yatch, while wishing it was a metre or two bigger, plenty of value has been created in the company. Many have done well from it.
Some lumpy trades today. Big volume for VCP